Birchtree's Account Talk

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Help - I need a few good bullish articles to read. Where are you McDuck?

The Depression Is Over
CNBC - ‎3 hours ago‎

The rally rolls on
HotStocked - ‎5 hours ago‎

Stocks extend 4-week rally; Dow breaches 8000
The Associated Press - ‎6 hours ago‎

Ignore The Controversy — Sin Stocks Can Make You Rich
istockAnalyst.com (press release) - ‎8 hours ago‎

Short View: Happy days
Financial Times - ‎10 hours ago‎

Nasdaq Up Year-to-Date
Briefing.com - ‎10 hours ago‎
 
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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

I say the turtle always wins. Cayman is a lawyer and not a pro in investing - he's just like the members on this board and has developed his own strategies. It does take money to make money, but he pays his dues for his lifestyle by helping others with his foundation. He knows his roots and from what I gather appreciates his advantages. I enjoy hearing from him and especially the insight into his trading strategies. I do the same thing with this MB and I took a $1M haircut during this bear market but I remain intact and optimistic going forward. Cayman made over $2.43M and I made $200K in the same time frame - you can see the difference but there must be some similarities also.

Birch,
I sincerely appreciate this post. Although for one brief moment Cayman and I had a conflict - throughout the duration I've come to admire him quite a bit.

Didn't realize he was a lawyer (or at least that didn't stick out enough to file in memory storage). What did stick out was his Father and the way he described him (the depth of love and admiration) and his endeavor to continue to represent his example both is his care for the dogs and also in the investment world. Once I like someone then most other events stand out - so his time in Europe and England and being part of the RACES and the nice places are events that kind of become part of my own life as I digest them and that's why they stand out so much. Your 'redheaded GLORIA' was someone different - but she's everybit what GLORIA could have been - at least if you remember her standing on the ladder in the pool.

PLEASE KNOW - I was very sincere in my message. In MHO you and him are Major Pros and I don't mean this to put everyone else in a dim light; or to seperate you from the general MB. Trust me Birch I know it takes money to make money - but I know a lot of RICH people and many of them end up with nothing. So to make $2.4 M during the worst peroid of the Global Economy and all the more with the USA getting majorly smashed is quite an accomplishment. In his quote from you - the figure is $400 - 500K which to me is absolutely outstanding. I'd say the same with $200K and I don't mean this to make you feel awkward.

My point amplifies yours exactly and that's why You and Him are the Pros you are. It's a LONG RACE with careful and timely planning. It's having the ability to find 'Excellent Opportunites' and play them wisely. Only in that manner can you make $200K or $2.4M.

I admire him too Birch - as the conflict was bizarre BS - just like my conflict with KevinD (for which I was equally wrong). Anyway - sorrry if I got carried away - and certainly didn't mean to take the wind out of your sail. The FLOOD GATES have been wide open and seeing his post put me on top of the world - so it was a great way to end the day.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Greg - thanks for those reads.

Steady - you've probably made a new friend. Under his chafe is velvet.

I had a $50K day yesterday and my desire is to hold the line on that amount. It won't be long and I'll be at the zero line on the tracker. Go Bulls.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I wouldn't be overly worried about today's unemployment numbers. Bull runs start when things look bleak, and often keep going even though things get bleaker for several months. After the bull market started in October 1974, unemployment kept climbing from 6% all the way up tp 9%, and GDP growth was negative in the fourth quarter of '74 (-1.6%) and much worse in the first quarter of '75 (-4.7%). Over the last six decades, it turn out, the stock market on average has performed better when the nation's unemployment rate was higher than when it was lower. Employee productivity actually increases. This appears to be a classic big V bottom move where markets can turn abruptly and strengthen dramatically - it may simply be due to the increase in money supply which seems to finally be kicking in as a very positive development for both the economy and the market.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
I sincerely appreciate this post. Although for one brief moment Cayman and I had a conflict - throughout the duration I've come to admire him quite a bit.

Didn't realize he was a lawyer (or at least that didn't stick out enough to file in memory storage). What did stick out was his Father and the way he described him (the depth of love and admiration) and his endeavor to continue to represent his example both is his care for the dogs and also in the investment world. Once I like someone then most other events stand out - so his time in Europe and England and being part of the RACES and the nice places are events that kind of become part of my own life as I digest them and that's why they stand out so much. Your 'redheaded GLORIA' was someone different - but she's everybit what GLORIA could have been - at least if you remember her standing on the ladder in the pool.

PLEASE KNOW - I was very sincere in my message. In MHO you and him are Major Pros and I don't mean this to put everyone else in a dim light; or to seperate you from the general MB. Trust me Birch I know it takes money to make money - but I know a lot of RICH people and many of them end up with nothing. So to make $2.4 M during the worst peroid of the Global Economy and all the more with the USA getting majorly smashed is quite an accomplishment. In his quote from you - the figure is $400 - 500K which to me is absolutely outstanding. I'd say the same with $200K and I don't mean this to make you feel awkward.

My point amplifies yours exactly and that's why You and Him are the Pros you are. It's a LONG RACE with careful and timely planning. It's having the ability to find 'Excellent Opportunites' and play them wisely. Only in that manner can you make $200K or $2.4M.

I admire him too Birch - as the conflict was bizarre BS - just like my conflict with KevinD (for which I was equally wrong). Anyway - sorrry if I got carried away - and certainly didn't mean to take the wind out of your sail. The FLOOD GATES have been wide open and seeing his post put me on top of the world - so it was a great way to end the day.

It's all good Steadgain. Birch is right - I'm a lawyer by trade but have been trading more and more - stock that is - but there is for sure a steep learning curve. i have piggybacked on some very successful people who make me feel extremely poor when comparing net worths but have helped me make a buck or two.

My father inherited money from property sold in Southern California which he managed very successful diversifying from land to cash, stock, etc.

I feel I'm learning as well as a caretaker but that's ok.

I've been picking and choosing carefully until March 7 and then pushed quite a few chips in - so avoided some losses and did pretty well on the gains.

The bulk of the estate's money is tucked away but still focused on appreciation as well as preservation but I put aside a nice trading account which and my hands are completely untied compared to the TSP rules and choices - but it is what it is.

My trading account is extremely risky where I'm buying FAS for example which is a typical holding.

I've definitely been bottom fishing where you can get the biggest bang for the buck but also burned big time if you don't protect yourself. Another example I bought 150k shares of AIG when it was 44 cents - literally a penny stock but it ran up to almost 2 buck so I the three week starting Mar 7 I did some very risky trading but that is how the account is set up and it paid off. Birch is right- it helps to have a nest egg to work with but you also have to be smart enough to have security features in place i.e. puts or whatever to protect what you have even if it is high risk. I made more than I lost and that's what counts but their was nothing unavailable to me for trading purposes.

If I had done for example 2 trades in the TSP before March 7 I would have completely missed the bear rally and still be down 22% for the year on the dow so if the government wants people to be able to grow their money and not be dependent on the gov't - the people that are active traders he needs (Mr. LONG) to open the toolbox because you already have the limit of 5 index funds no matter how you mix them and want to call them L funds you still only have 5 funds - all he is doing is hurting people's ability to make money and it is staring him right in the face. Sometimes you can't make this up. As of yesterday the QQQQ were up 7.5% YTD. You need rules that will allow you to be in the market WHEN IT'S GOING UP even if you hit the 2 trade minimum.

By the way - I'm looking at 850 on the s&p as resistance and then a retracement down to maybe around 750 or 760.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

If I had done for example 2 trades in the TSP before March 7 I would have completely missed the bear rally and still be down 22% for the year on the dow so if the government wants people to be able to grow their money and not be dependent on the gov't - the people that are active traders he needs (Mr. LONG) to open the toolbox because you already have the limit of 5 index funds no matter how you mix them and want to call them L funds you still only have 5 funds - all he is doing is hurting people's ability to make money and it is staring him right in the face. Sometimes you can't make this up. As of yesterday the QQQQ were up 7.5% YTD. You need rules that will allow you to be in the market WHEN IT'S GOING UP even if you hit the 2 trade minimum.

Beautiful! This written by someone that doesn't need the TSP at all and yet sees the idiocy of the IFT limits. ;)

Good trading and investing to you and yours.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Cayman was managing his mother's TSP account and because of the limitations decided to close the account and move the funds somewhere else.

In my view the risk of not being in this market now exceeds the magnitude of the risk of being in the market. The rule taken from the previous post from Cayman is that the more you can build your assets, the more you can afford to risk if you have the fortitude for it. I would like to see the bull (Ferdinand) cut loose today and push a 200 point rally from out of the high grass today. Catch a few more unsuspecting bears and crush their morale.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Today the ECRI, an independent forecasting group based in New York, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) moved higher and its growth rate rose to a 23 week high signaling a turn in the business cycle is on their radar."

http://kirklindstrom.blogspot.com
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

As previously stated there's always been a correlation between the size of market recovery and depth of the downturn during a recession. Considering the handsome rewards afforded those who stuck it out during the past few soft recessions, the rewards for sticking this harsh one out will likely be far greater than all of them. So far that has been the case off our current bottom. Investors that have forged ahead through the tough times will be rewarded in the end - that's surely going to be the case. All those that are currently paralyzed need to pull the trigger - IMHO.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"When looking out over the next 6 months or less, is there anything that can reliably tell us if the stock market is near (or already past) a bottom, or should one wait if they have money they would like to invest? In other words, can anyone using all of the data we have available ascertain whether the market is headed up or down over the next 6 months. In term of absolute returns, I can see almost np positive outcome as a result of holding significant amounts of cash within our current investment environment."

http://safehaven.com/article-12993.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX did break it's support line today going below 40 and closing at 39.70 - yeah fear is good. We also broke the overhead resistance line today on the SPX at 842.50 +8.12. It's not a breakout yet but rather a possible throw over - but if a breakout happens next week that would be a very good bullish sign. Could next week be an astronomical week - heck you bet. Money from institutions is starting to flow. The VIX could lead us through the SPX 850 level on Monday and then by the end of the week the horns will press up against SPX 943.85 giving the index an almost 42% gain from the March low of 666. Not only has 2009 brought a fresh start with a clean slate, but also a new series of Kress cycles. Yup, in June 1933, long before all the banks had failed or unemployment had peaked, the SPX rallied 105% in 6 months. Where would that figure put us this time around? I'm still looking for 1380 by the summer time.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's all good Steadgain.

If I had done for example 2 trades in the TSP before March 7 I would have completely missed the bear rally and still be down 22% for the year

By the way - I'm looking at 850 on the s&p as resistance and then a retracement down to maybe around 750 or 760.

Wow Cayman - THANKS !!

The whole read was VERY COOL :cool::cool:

I was the first in to fight the Bear - then most of the others joined me within the next day or two. I had absolutely no doubt we were heading up - but got in a little early. Anyway I was expecting a bounce instead of a RALLY so Locked In GAINS when I got over 7% the first day.

That evening I found it was a RALLY and we'd be getting 20% or better and I tried to let everyone on the MB know. BUT I WAS IN JAIL DUE TO THE 2 IFTs and could not even do the <1% transfers. So in my personal situation those limits really sucked and left me helpless and watching everything keep going and going.

But I can't complain ! I'm ahead for the year and in the long run the past few weeks really don't matter. I appreciate your take on the retracement as I'd say that's very accurate.

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Birch,
The main problem is that you've been majorly Bullish even during the worst of times. So if I'd listened at the beginning of the year when you said 'We're in the upward swing of the Kress Cycle and things are going to fly' - well I'd be down in the 4th layer of hell.

BUT - I didn't expect the Kress Cycle to take off until early summer so I've largely remained in safety collecting more cash.

Not to razz ya - but simply pointing out as we dove lower and lower I kept hearing 'This is not a BEAR MARKET' and we're at the bottom. But I can't fault you on that because I believed the exact same BS and politics totally screwed up what should have been easy to see. But I thought we were pretty much on the same page because I thought it was a 'mere correction' - AND DID NOT KNOW what was really happening until about 9/08.

NOW - on the other hand you need to realize that everytime the Markets started taking off - you're the main one saying 'It's a BULL Market' - so that - and that alone is the only reason why I told Steve to 'take you with a grain of salt'.

***********************************************************

But now - for the FIRST TIME since I joined the MB am I beginning to see some real signs of things to come. Many of your POSTS are irrefutable - and TRUST ME - I know that.

But we are just getting started if in fact we're honestly on the way and Volitility can not be avoided. My Aversion for LOSS is greater than my longing for GAIN - because I can make money anytime in a REAL BULL MARKET. Once that officially happens I'm in to stay but for now I'll wait for the retracement.

Well have a good weekend - and super congrats on the winnings so far - and those to come.

The name Buzz doesn't stand out - like it did when I first heard it. Now it just kind of fits... but how in the world did you come up with that name??

OK - THAT'S THE END OF MY BOOK -

AND EVERYONE LIVED HAPPILY EVER AFTER

SWEET DREAMS AND HAVE THE MOST PEACEFUL SLEEP AND WONDERFUL WEEKEND

Steady
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

September 08 was when 10,000 hedge funds went into absolute panic mode and sold their mothers down the drain for no reason other than emotionalism. Prior to that we were in a normal correction. This was an unprecedented sell off and I still believe it was basically foolishness - but it provided some great opportunities for buying undervalued assets and I managed to get my share of them. Now everyone is looking to buy a pull back, but this train ain't stopping at any stations - if one wants on they have to run to catch it. Would I do anything differently - not really. I did take $169K profit out back in July and used that money to reinvest on the way down. I also dumped another better than $600K into the market last fall - adding injury to insult, but in retrospect it was the right move. I ended up purchasing 432 individual stock positions on a dollar cost averaging basis and am now fully prepared to make some serious money with my asset base fully intact - you have to be in to win and I'm not chasing but rather riding this bullish train. All it took from me was courage and discipline to follow my renegade contrarian style. And of course as a lover of pain operating from the bottom of the well I was in my element - that's when I do my best investing. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

In the bar car drinking scotch. I will gladly stick out my hand to anyone needing a lift but I am not the engineer. (Birchtree is):D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

My daughter's first name is Elizabeth and is usually called Beth by her friends. I started calling her Little B when she was young and because she was always so happy and active I slowly moved into Buzz because she was like a bee buzzing around. Now she is Captain Buzz when ever she calls home. Hooah!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

My impressions of the tracker is that we will see some changes by the end of next week - probably large changes. #5 SawBonez has already moved back to the lily pad and #3 optionman may be the next to fade back to the pad. Both #9 gonefishin and #22 Lostdawg are wild cards - they may still be playing with bear market rules. #2 Scribbler is an unknown and will require more time. I suspect #1 clester will hold tight and make further gains - he'll be hard to replace at this point.
 
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