Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We gave back 402 points in two days - how much of that can we get back this week? I'll settle for even on the week although today has potential for more gains. Tomorrow could be interesting because of FASB 157 modifications. If I remember we had three months of higher lows on the non-farm payrolls - so if we can get a figure that is less than 655,000 job loss the market may rally strongly looking at the upward trend line. I need $27K over the next three trading days to break even on this week. And while I have my wish list out - I'd like to be at -7% on the auto-tracker by the end of the week.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The good scenario would be the VIX first breaking below its 200day MA (41.84) and then showing a material break below the lower trend line support. Such an action in the VIX would likely be associated with a significant move in the markets with the SPX likely breaking through 850 and staging an assult at its January high of 943.85."

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm Fixed on the Vix - 4/01/09

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Right on Birchtree, but that VIX has been one tough nut

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

In the FWIW category, Zack's email says a big megatrend is about to start this week and cites "world-class chart patterns expert, Kevin Matras".

 

[KevinD]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just Googled "world-class chart patterns expert, Kevin Matras" and came up with this.

http://www.zacks.com/registration/chartpatternstrader/welcome/?adid=PT_zhpm_040109#pt

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I haven't seen the word astronomical used in awhile - I think I'll add it to my repository.

Please see my post #5171 on 3/20/09 for the number of new lows on their lows. I did enjoy the confirmation from Zacks. Sometime between now and the middle of April, the sticky VIX will have a break out of its' triangle pattern. And the market will move astronomically in the opposite direction of the VIX's breakout.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That was a pretty cloudy prediction there Birchtree.
How about you tell me which way the VIX is going to go and I'll tell you what a good move would be.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX will breakout into the lower 30s. The SPX will be pushing up against 943.85.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I may have to use my other 50% dry powder. I would love to see the VIX in the mid 30's.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Dr. Bob Froliche on Kudlow yesterday evening said that the modifications of mark to market would provide a triple digit gain in the Dow with the first number being a 5. Now that would be a parabolic move and would set the SPX free with a better than 50 points to the upside.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, any thoughts as to why the VXO has not jumped onto the downward trend like the VIX? (I know it's early)
Curious- last few times we seen that the day ended in a wash

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

There will be no wash today. 209 points in the first half hour - 840 on the SPX is the 100 day MA and it will fall to the horns today. The VXO? Who knows - perhaps the Shadow. The VIX was generally between 10 and 30 throughout the past 25 years, with only an occasional panic spike to higher levels - stability is returning to investing. Many small investors are expected to behave so that they miss the first 20%,30%,40%, perhaps 50% and then are left waiting for the second coming. The VIX will have to drop considerably before its time to start to worry that we're in an overbought condition - as long as the majority of lily padders sit tight as skeptics on the sidelines the market is safe. Snort.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks.
As always insightful

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm going to patiently wait for the next primary trend Dow Theory buy signal - it should arrive with the Dow Industrials at 9015 and the Dow Transports at 3715. Once we get this buy signal the retail investor will flood into the market - then we will get a correction. That would be an opportunity to time the market. There is a lot of buy and hold traffic in front of me on the tracker. All I have to make today is $6K and I'm even on the week - that's not a problem, so I need a good day tomorrow for follow up. It won't be my first ever $100K week but I'll take any dollars I can collect. Could we get a 500 point banger today - whew that would be sweet.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm going to patiently wait for the next primary trend Dow Theory buy signal - it should arrive with the Dow Industrials at 9015 and the Dow Transports at 3715. Once we get this buy signal the retail investor will flood into the market - then we will get a correction. That would be an opportunity to time the market.

Birch - I highly value your insights !!

Thank you !! I'll wait a little longer for this Signal to approch.

Much appreciated

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

By mid-March short positions had increased by 11% to a level better than 16.2 billion shares. There could be many declawed bears caught in this bear trap and there is only one way out and that will cost money. We could eventually see an historic short squeeze and it could start today.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Allah, the Dow Transports are up 40% since their March lows. That's an excellent sign for a harbinger of an economic recovery.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: imported post

I believe, and I stand alone here, that we are participating in a back to back secular bull market. If my strategy works and I am correct about this move I plan to make a great deal of money-oh perhaps between 400000 and 500000$, that's right hundreds of thousands-remember i do not fear the Fed. Let's hedge, if I 'm wrong anthe move is a cyclical bull market that is getting on in age I won't make as much, but I'll be happy. I have enough flexibility to trade if necessary-gotta watch them taxes though. I will concentrate on building dividend income that helps to ride the roller coaster. The upcoming rocket ride will produce many appreciating assets. There is even greater clarity in the economy now than in 03-sometimes it simply boils down to either faith or foolishness-can 50 million Frenchmen be wrong-you bet!

Great day today. Pattern day trading portfolio gain since Mar. 7 is $2.43m.

Overall all I cracked 30 for the entire portfolio but almost half goes to feeding and care for the dogs and running my foundation. I think dad would be proud because no matter what I do in my mind he did 99% of the grunt work.

My only vice is still the cars so I'm looking at the zr-1 corvette - think they will still be in business if I get an extended warranty (GM)?? I just added a couple of lifts to the garage and 6 is the garage limit. Have a guy turning the wrench as I watch but trying too pick up a few things along the way.

best,

Cayman

 

[Steadygain]

Re: imported post

Birch - couldn't find the quote he included or would have done a multiquote response.

Anyway - always look for the BEST NEWS to end the day. I've got a dinner tonight and need to get going.

BUT WANTED TO LET YOU KNOW - There are very few things that make me happier than seeing the PROS make it big.

I'm thrilled and not surprized in the least - by this incredible gains.

Great day today. Pattern day trading portfolio gain since Mar. 7 is $2.43m.

WOW man that is just amazing - wish you could sense the vibes and see the smile when I read this.

Overall all I cracked 30 for the entire portfolio but almost half goes to feeding and care for the dogs and running my foundation. I think dad would be proud because no matter what I do in my mind he did 99% of the grunt work.

Amen brother - and not to take from you at all - but he was the BEST

You're doing great !!

My only vice is still the cars so I'm looking at the zr-1 corvette - think they will still be in business if I get an extended warranty (GM)?? I just added a couple of lifts to the garage and 6 is the garage limit. Have a guy turning the wrench as I watch but trying too pick up a few things along the way.

best,

Cayman

That's incredible !! and nothing wrong with wanting a great car if you've got the mu laa.

Not to challenge you at all - but it seems you also enjoy the best of accomadations when traveling the world being a part of the 'race sceen' and never forget your appreciation for beauty (the girl in the pool)

Well that's it for me - Cayman & Birch - you guys are the Masters and the rest of us know if we do everything right and keep doing it then some day - somewhere down the line - we'll have the mu laa to spare as well.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

I say the turtle always wins. Cayman is a lawyer and not a pro in investing - he's just like the members on this board and has developed his own strategies. It does take money to make money, but he pays his dues for his lifestyle by helping others with his foundation. He knows his roots and from what I gather appreciates his advantages. I enjoy hearing from him and especially the insight into his trading strategies. I do the same thing with this MB and I took a $1M haircut during this bear market but I remain intact and optimistic going forward. Cayman made over $2.43M and I made $200K in the same time frame - you can see the difference but there must be some similarities also.