Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Steady,

Well why not - buy and enjoy the watch. Perhaps you will start another consumer purchasing trend. I remember when I bought my $800 Tonkinese cat - not many of that breed around - but I have no regrets having her around and taking her for walks on her leash. Mindylou is a pure delight and loves the wife more than me and that really makes me happy. I'm the pet playmate, the pet doorman, the cookie box cleaner, the boxer that loves to get play bitten, the dinner preparer and the mummy that makes her run when we play hide and seek. She has become our surrogate child until the grandchildren come on to the scene. So enjoy the watch and always know you are on time.
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Thanks Birch :D

My Laberdoddle - Ella - got a major 'do over' (or whatever the ladies call it). I spent a good 2 hours cutting her hair yesterday and now she is undoubtedly the most beautiful girl on Earth.

mojo said:
I'm really looking for some kind of logical reason for an upcoming economic recovery but I haven't found it.
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Nor will you find it !

Birch is the PERMABULL - pretty self explanatory he is a BULL that is PERMANENT. So for him (as with me) the Economy TANKING only means historic LOWS to be seized for equally historical gains down the line. Now I perfer safety as it's crashing - jump in for a bounce then ride to the BOTTOM in safety...:D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Now I perfer safety as it's crashing - jump in for a bounce then ride to the BOTTOM in safety...:D"

ME TOO! Man when there is a train coming I want off the tracks!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

A few choice facts from Bob Brinker's Marketimer per Mr. Robo.

"The three-month LIBOR has improved in recent weeks and now stands at 1.17%, well below its peak above 5% last year. The TED spread between three-month Treasury Bills and LIBOR is down to 95 basis points, well below its peak of 465 basis points last year. The TED spread measures the level of fear that banks have when lending to each other. It is only a matter of time before current monetary policy accommodation translates into the next economic recovery".
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

So why are some many promoting the markets to tank in short order??? Its really a rehetorical question and I know the answer is everyone's got an opinion and access to the dem internets...

Myself, I'm about to loose interest with anything to do with the economy. I'm of a mindset to move everything into L2010 or L2020 (current est time horizion is 2015) set it and forget it. I've about had enough worry over it to just want to wash my hands of it. Does this mean I'm ready to go long?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Going long right after a panic is the ultimate contrarian bet, very challenging psychologically but promising huge potential rewards. Nothing wrong in stepping back and utilizing the L funds - that's why they exist. The important point though is to try and accumulate as many shares of a particular fund as possible using the DCA method - you may never see these low prices again so take opportunity. I prefer to collect 100% C fund shares and I'll be ready to ride the coming inflationary wave. Panics are bubbles in fear which drive investoprs to liquidate everything they can at any price. They get so scared they only want to hold cash - I thank the panic as a longer-term investor for driving down irrational prices in 2008 and I certainly got my share. Step back and put your TSP on auto-pilot until the storms pass. However, the risk of not being in the market now exceeds the magnitude of the risk of being in the market.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Do you use a harness to walk your cat, or a leash with a collar? Our (teenage) kitten doesn't like the harness we bought but ignores the collar.
He's going to be a big cat, huge paws. Loves to jump on high places and run around at breakneck speeds. Domestic tortiseshell shorthair: (we guess) part American Shorthair, part Siamese (from the strange noises he makes plus the triangular face).
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I use the harness - it provides more control when the squirrels start teasing her. The first time I put her in the harness she bucked like a bronco until I took it off. The second time was no problem. All I have to do is show her the leash and she starts to chatter - let's go. It's her opportunity to go out side and hunt - she likes to climb trees. If we are in the back yard I'll often times unhook her to show trust and let her have some independence as long as she behaves. We walk down the sidewalks on both sides of the house and I let her lead - she can spot a squirrel 300 feet away. I just couldn't see keeping her totally inside without ever feeling the grass on her paws - walking does require patience but most cats are quick learners and know exactly where they want to go. Have fun with your tabby.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

From Richard Russel, Dow Theory Letters, January 29, 2009.

"Will new primary bull market be signaled? On January 20, the DJTransportation Average broke below its November 20 bear market low of 2988.29. The new low was not confirmed by the Industrial Average, which held above its own November 20 bear market low of 7552.29. This non-confirmation set up the potential for a Dow Theory bull signal. If the Industrials and Transports can now muster the strength to rally above their preceding January peaks (Industrials on January 6 at 9015.10 and Transports at 3717.26) a new primary bull market will be signaled.

There are two concepts about this that bother me.

(1) If a new bull market is signaled, it would mean that the bear market of November 2007 to November 2008 ended in only one year. Since the preceding bull market (1982 to 2007) lasted 25 years, a one year bear market (no matter how severe) seems too short in time to correct one of the greatest bull markets in history.

(2) Based on the Lowry's figures, it appears that most of the upside progress since the November 20 bear market lows has been the result of a decline in selling pressure. Historically, the beginning of a new bull market has been characterized by not only a drastic drop in Lowry's Selling Pressure Index, but also by heavy buying and strong upside volume (neither of which has been present).

The stock market often tries to confuse us by coming up with something new. Assuming that the Averages do better their preceding January peaks, it would have occurred without the usual heavy buying on rising volume. It may be that the January 6 peaks will have to be bettered before the "real" volume comes in. In other words, even if a new bull market is signaled in the weeks ahead, we will have to monitor the stock market action carefully, to make sure we are not being sucked in to a fake rally as was the case following the 1929 crash."

http://safehaven.com/article-12484.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

This is a repost.

"The point is very clear here, that almost every single disaster has yielded tremendous opportunity for those who were able (with Birchtree fortitude) to take the long-term view. Instead of selling everything and fleeing for the hills, investors should be buying and or at the very least holding onto their positions; the time to sell is when others are singing and jumping with joy and the time to buy is when blood is freely flowing in the streets."

http://safehaven.com/article-12234.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Dividends; the secret to long-term returns. Speaking to the equity markets, we were pretty bullish between the psychological/capitulation stock market low of 10/10/08 (where 93% of all stock traded on the NYSE made new yearly lows), as well as the subsequent price low of 11/20/08, often commenting that the stock market was in a bottoming process on a short/intermediate - term basis....."

http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks - I'm going to transfer my Merrill account to Bank of America investing platform. I have an interest in some ETFs as soon as I have extra money. I'm interested in Direxion's largest ETF, Large Cap Bull 3X Shares, which aims to offer investors a return equal three times each day's percentage-point change in the Russell 1000 stock index. For now I'm a lurker.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"When the carnage is over, investors can expect swift and substantial gains. The average first year of a bull market has produced a gain of 46% for the S&P 500. So if we base that on the 752 low, we arrive at 1052 on the "500". Looking farther out, the average bull market produces an overall gain of 164% over an average 57 months. Applying that typical gain to the low of 752 would put the index back at 1233. And again, I'll reiterate that since these are anything but average times, everything will likely be well above the norms. (Birchtree is looking for 1700). I'm not going to pull punches: Anyone who invested everything at the top of the market could be waiting a long time for a full recovery of their capital. But for anyone who's steadily building a diversified portfolio of quality companies, and especially for anyone (Birchtree as an example) pursuing dollar-cost averaging strategies (including dividend reinvestment) throughtout this downturn, the odds of a solid return are still very likely".

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/is-the-market-headed-back-to-novembers-low-29555
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The S&P is at a critical support level on a 60 minute chart, and that support back to last November. The VIX has a positive divergence that was established on January 20th. This means that we are going to have an important Bull vs. Bear battle this week."

http://safehaven.com/article-12504.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birchtree, I hope you took a look at the Baltic dry index I told you about a few months ago. Stocks such as DRYS, EGLE, EXM, have not done too bad.

DRYS ran from 3 and change to 17 and change at 15% clips per day and the BDI is starting to run up nicely. DRYS dropped back to high 4's and in 2 days back to 7 and change. The entire bulk shipping group has had some nice runs.

Needless to say I bought heavy so it turned out okay. I took profits today and you probably wouldn't believe how much for half and hour of work. Buy at the end of the day and it gaps up in premarket the next morning then I sell in premarket and buy back at the end of the day after you see a little profit taking. Pretty much the pattern for the whole group until it runs out of steam. Might want to start watching the group - seems to have a nice pattern to it. ;)

cayman
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Cayman,

I currently own DSX - Diana Shipping Inc, DHT - DHT Maritime, EXM - Excel Maritime Carriers, and GMR - General Maritime Corp. So I have a small piece of the potential action. It's always nice to hear from money especially when money speaks. As you know I'm kind of the odd ball on the board but I keep moving forward. I'm currently resting and letting my dividend reinvestments do the heavy lifting. I've decided to rest until I make my next $200K and then I'll go back and pick up some of the lonely wall flowers that deserve my attention.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Greg,

Thanks for the article - I've been in really deep since last fall and I continue to get in even deeper with my dividend reinvestments. Patiently waiting for the sun to shine again.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The market bottom pattern - 2003 & 2009 compared. Stock market bottom pattern conclusion: As you can see from the charts above, it's pretty amazing how similar things look between the two bear markets in the S&P 500. I don't know if that's what's really interesting or the fact that both bear markets had the light volume Christmas Rally just before things reverse. Or that the bear market could end in the same month as it did last time. Either way I thought this was worth pointing out to everyone.

I recommend you start thinking about putting some long term money to work giving it at least 4 years to mature. Today I started investing some long term money to work with some great looking Canadian ETFs for dividends, growth and commodities. There are tons of ETFs for picking what you think will perform nicely during the next bull market." (Do you hear me, Birchtree?) Snort.

http://safehaven.com/article-12513.htm
 
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