Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The market leads the economy. And sometimes by as much as 6 months and up to 1.5 years. Following the terrible bear markets of 1973-74 and 1980-82 the two downturns to which the current one is most often compared - unemployment peaked well after the market turned upward. In the first case, a bull market began Oct. 3, 1974, and unemployment didn't peak until May 1975. In the second case, the bull run began Aug. 12, 1982, and the jobless rate didn't start declining until January 1983."

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/home.aspx John Reese- commentary - strategy lab

 

[wv-girl]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The market leads the economy. And sometimes by as much as 6 months and up to 1.5 years. Following the terrible bear markets of 1973-74 and 1980-82 the two downturns to which the current one is most often compared - unemployment peaked well after the market turned upward. In the first case, a bull market began Oct. 3, 1974, and unemployment didn't peak until May 1975. In the second case, the bull run began Aug. 12, 1982, and the jobless rate didn't start declining until January 1983."

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/home.aspx John Reese- commentary - strategy lab

I guess the market likes unemployment because it is guaranteed money.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Trendlines and chart patterns don't predict anything."

http://stockchartist.blogspot.com/2009/01/trendlines-and-chart-patterns-dont.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Ticker Sense blogger sentiment poll is at 65.00% bullish and 30.00% bearish with the remainder neutral - that's very bullish.

The Dow futures are saying they like the bad bank - good bank concept. Could this be the black swan I've been waiting on?

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Black Swan - large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations.

BT,
Can you elaborate on the black swan or does the definition drive the nail home

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Black Swan will be all over the wires tomorrow - bad bank versus good bank concept with TARP buying up toxic assets to clear the books of the banks.

 

[turbo23dog]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Kudlow talked about the bad bank - good bank issue for nearly the entire hour on CNBC tonight. He's really positive about it.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks, I threw a tread and was not tracking straight.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"History shows that markets can turn abruptly and strengthen dramatically once a tipping point is reached. Investors have to be ready when that occurs. In our view, the risk of not being in the market now exceeds the magnitude of the risk of being in the market. The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in September 2007, and historically interest rate changes impact the economy with roughly a six to 12 months lag. This increase in money supply is a very positive development for both the economy and market."

http://[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/holmes/2009/0127.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm anticipating the Fed talks about the program they started late last year under which it is buying up to $500 billion in mortgage backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and sweet Ginnie Mae to help bolster the housing market. I believe they've already spent $50 billion which helped lower rates the other day to 4.96% on a 30 year.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I caught my GE dividend reinvestment price at $12.80 and I doubt seriously that I'll ever see that low a price ever again. My next dividend on this stock will be in April and I suspect at much higher prices. I think it may be time to start doing some more nibbling before the market begins to experience escape velocity. I'm in deep but a little deeper might feel fine especially if we have found our bottom.

 

[Prozium]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I caught my GE dividend reinvestment price at $12.80 and I doubt seriously that I'll ever see that low a price ever again. My next dividend on this stock will be in April and I suspect at much higher prices. I think it may be time to start doing some more nibbling before the market begins to experience escape velocity. I'm in deep but a little deeper might feel fine especially if we have found our bottom.

GE last trade $12.76.

Lot of rumbling that their credit rating will be downgraded.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUKN2840060120090128

 

[CountryBoy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

GE last trade $12.76.

Lot of rumbling that their credit rating will be downgraded.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUKN2840060120090128

There is a chance of that, but I feel they'll cut their divvy first to maintain the AAA rating, cause that allows them to borrow money at a cheaper rate. But what ever happens, I bought this past Monday and will be buying more this coming Monday. GE will rebound.

CB

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If I can purchase GE in the $12.00 range in April I will jump for joy. The GE dividend is intact and currently yields over 10% - a perfect time to accumulate more shares and that is the eventual name of the game. Looking forward to grabbing a handful of C fund shares tomorrow again in the $9.00 range. There is always a silver lining. I have 323 individual stocks in my oceanic portfolio and it seems like I have a dividend coming in on a regular basis to buy more stock - it's the lazy way to invest. Anyway, the objective is to keep buying as much as I can while we are in this bottoming process. I'm buying smaller positions but nonetheless still buying and sooner or later will enter the markets to buy in larger blocks especially when we get back into bull mode.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Countryboy certainly has the right approach - do the dollar cost averaging when the crowd is heading in the opposite direction. I made $44K yesterday and will probably give it all back today - par for the course but I'm still up on the week unless I get drilled tomorrow.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From TWSJ print edition of 1/29/09.

"Investors Buy Up Stock Funds. Assets in long-term mutual funds jumped $3.99 billion in the latest week, led by a spike in assets in stock funds, according to the Investment Company Institute, in the first of what will be weekly updates on fund flows.

Stock funds have seen net buying, or inflows, for each of the first three weeks of this year, showing that investors are beginning to tip toe back into stocks. But stocks typically see investor interest early each year as they put money to work in retirement accounts.

Meanwhile, money-market funds had inflows of $13.39 billion in the latest week, as seven day yields on taxable funds fell below 0.5% for the first time, according to the Money Fund Report from iMoneyNet, which has been tracking taxable yields since 1975 and tax-free yields since 1981.

In the week ended Tuesday, total assets rose to $3.834 trillion, after falling last week for the first time in more than a month.

Taxable inflows totaled $21.08 billion, including $7.29 billion into prime funds, while tax free funds had outflows of $7.69 billion, as yields remained at a record low. Taxable money market assets totaled $3.341 trillion.

Other rates for short-term money market retail funds continued to decline. The seven-day simple yield on all taxable funds fell to 0.48% from 0.55%. The previous low was set in August 2003 at 0.5%. The 30-day yield edged down to 0.59% from 0.66%."

There is obviously a great deal on money sitting on the sidelines - how long it will stay there is the question.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Birth of a New Cyclical Bull?"

http://safehaven.com/article-12455.htm

 

[mick504]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree....with all the inflows into the market....it may mean we are very near or at the bottom! Maybe there is just no place else to make money safely in the U.S. therefore they had to put it somewhere! I think it's more of the former than the latter. The stimulus money approved will help some of the pet Dem programs out nicely but not due really much for the economy. My opinion is that until something is done about the mortgage crisis....bad/worthless loans and overpriced houses....the economy will improve slowly like a 'slug' in the Northwest...or move like 'molasses in winter'...that's an old one I know. Take Care and thanks for all the information on money inflows. I'm currently 100% S&P at about 832! May sell & move to G and then rebuy in Feb or just stay put!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Despite unprecedented volatility in the capital markets, employees are staying the course in their retirement savings," said Scott B. David, president of Workplace Investing at Fidelity Investments, the nation's largest provider of workplace retirement savings plans. Markets may be topsy-turvy, but Americans haven't abandoned their 401K plans.

 

[Prozium]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

More Americans breaking into nest eggs

Retirement plans see spike in early withdrawals for everyday expenses


Record numbers of Americans are raiding their retirement savings as the economy has soured.

http://bx.businessweek.com/retireme...awals-for-everyday-expenses/3846913454557002/