Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Man I'm so darned depressed - my tomatoes didn't survive the latest freeze.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The DJIA fell 14% between Barack Obama's election and Inauguration Day, a record decline for such a period. The secon-biggest, the 12% drop after Franklin Roosevelt's election, gave way to a 75% rally in 1933."

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
"The DJIA fell 14% between Barack Obama's election and Inauguration Day, a record decline for such a period. The secon-biggest, the 12% drop after Franklin Roosevelt's election, gave way to a 75% rally in 1933."

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
Click to expand...

Well heck, let the rally begin. Of course, for the short term I'll settle for a positive month. Perhaps this will be MOST of the last flush out. This could end up being the peak of bad earnings reports. By now, many company s have already adjusted, laid off, and cut out the unnecessary fat & gluttony, and now are prepared for the Obama economy. :toung:

"All aboard" Choo Choo...
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
There's a guy wanting to know what to do :confused: when he's going to recoup his losses..???


I told him the Markets will likely go up before they down further. I guess I see it like a stairway - with each big step having a little bounce 'come back' before the next big step.

Anyway...do have any feeling for how high we might get before the next big plunge???

The other thing I'm a little perplexed about is why you would hold on when the overwhelming odds are we're going down a lot further. I can guarantee you no one would down on you for 'saving another 10 or 20% loss or more'. I'm not saying this to challenge you Birch but I guess it doesn't make any sense to willingly take a huge loss.

Well...hopefully you'll at least think about it.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

As a matter of simplicity I've been devalued over $700K but have not had a loss yet - that comes for me if I sell. Around the bottom I put in another $629K to buy my favorite wall flowers that were trading so cheaply. What I actually did was buy income - now some of my bank stocks have cut their dividends but that's par for the course. Last Friday I noticed there were 37 new yearly lows - looking through the list I counted 11 of them that I owned - that made me realize that I'm on the right track. Silly man that I am - I still got to pay tax on $140K. Dividends continue to roll in and I'm looking forward to my next GE payout on Jan. 26th or so. I've added up my dividend payouts for February and I'm patiently waiting. I got my last C fund price at $9.83 and the next purchase may be lower than that. So I'm just waiting on Mr. Time to pass as I know it will - in the meantime the income keeps coming in and buying me more shares on autopilot. It's a great system.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Silly man that I am - I still got to pay tax on $140K. Dividends continue to roll in and I'm looking forward to my next GE payout on Jan. 26th or so. I got my last C fund price at $9.83 and the next purchase may be lower than that. So I'm just waiting on Mr. Time to pass as I know it will - in the meantime the income keeps coming in and buying me more shares on autopilot. It's a great system.
Click to expand...


Thanks Birch,

Once in a blue moon I may need this reminder :cool:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Man I'm so darned depressed - my tomatoes didn't survive the latest freeze.
Click to expand...
Here you go, Birch...
The Plant Frost Protector, Wall O’ Water Insulating Teepees.:cool:
A great device that absorbs the heat from the sun through the day and keeps plants warm through the night.
Just the few degrees difference can mean a lot when you’re incubating tender young tomatoes.
http://kenhoytstyle.com/blog/?m=200805

View attachment 5503

View attachment 5504
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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
The way I see it: The Recession is like a raging fire out of control and we are probably RIGHT NOW at about the peak of damage. That means MAJOR Moves will be brought forth to bring it under control.

Even if everything is DONE RIGHT - It will take several months to get the fire extinguished and several more to turn things around.

I had counted on 6/09 being the time to go High Risk - but after last night Buffet convinced me it's more like another 6 months easy. Subsequently I will lower the lows of 600 expected by 5/09 to maybe 500 by 8/09

I'm telling you all this because the worst of times is probably here and will have to pass within another few months...so you're buying opportunites will reach a peak and once your buys are in place YOU WILL MAKE A KILLING.

Dividends will soar as the BULL MARKET takes over.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
"A contrarian's viewpoint of technical analysis in today's world. My last suggestion is that when a stock drops below its 200 day moving average it should be regarded as a bullish rather than a bearish event. There I said it."
Click to expand...

That is correct if it is from the viewpoint of someone considering buy the stock now but not from the viewpoint of someone already owning the stock.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks there Greg - good links from you as usual. I want you to know I also appreciate many of your posted videos. Kindred spirits I believe.

"We witnessed a stock panic in late 2008, an exceedingly rare event. The distionary definition of this is a sudden widespread fear concerning financial affairs leading to credit contraction and widespread sale of securities at depressed prices in an effort to acquire cash. Panics are bubbles in fear which drive investors to liquidate everything they can at any price. They get so scared they only want to hold cash.

So what's an investor or speculator to do? Ride the coming inflationary wave. Some of this deluge of new money will flow into beaten-down stocks and commodities. I like both since they were driven to such irrational prices in 2008."

http://safehaven.com/article-12403.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Thanks there Greg - good links from you as usual. I want you to know I also appreciate many of your posted videos. Kindred spirits I believe.

"We witnessed a stock panic in late 2008, an exceedingly rare event. The distionary definition of this is a sudden widespread fear concerning financial affairs leading to credit contraction and widespread sale of securities at depressed prices in an effort to acquire cash. Panics are bubbles in fear which drive investors to liquidate everything they can at any price. They get so scared they only want to hold cash.

So what's an investor or speculator to do? Ride the coming inflationary wave. Some of this deluge of new money will flow into beaten-down stocks and commodities. I like both since they were driven to such irrational prices in 2008."

http://safehaven.com/article-12403.htm
Click to expand...

Just so you can't say you weren't warned.


This the last couple of months have been a financial watershed event-which in turn will become a historical societal event (Much like the Civil War, Great Depression and WWII). We have not EVEN begun to see how that will change how people handle personal finances, how we view investing and the role government plays in our lives.
As one commentaor put it-as much as we would like to think we are at 1933 with FDR just getting in the White House well guess again.
This is more like 1929.

I pride myself in being a realist -2 divorces, a near fatal auto accident and surviving cancer does kind of strip away all the extraneous b.s.

How anyone can call this a panic is delusional. (FWIW I'm still in 100% equities). All one needs to do is walk around and talk to family and friends or look at the local business climate which will give you more then enough antedotal evidence that 'Recession-Economic Downturn-Depression' or whatever it will be finally named is going to be with us a very -loooonggg time. Both you and I and people on this board haven't really felt it's effect yet. It will hit you, me and our children and grandchildren like a force of nature.

I stay in equities because I do have hope and would not want to live in any other country now or whatever happens in the future. What's the choice? The abyss?

But this downturn a result of a 'panic'
No.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Using his cycle system, Mr. Kress correctly identified the 1999/2000 stock market top and also the 2002/2003 end to the bear market. More recently, Kress identified the stock market top in 2007 and is looking for the start of a new cyclical bull market to begin soon. Following our previous interview in August, Kress was kind enough to grant me another interview concerning his cycle work and investment/economic outlook for the U.S. in the foreseeable future. He also shared his longer-term outlook for gold and commodities."

http://safehaven.com/article-12430.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
It's a very Bizarre Situation we're in today. Of course the Gov. is doing everything possible to turn things around (and I for one appreciate their efforts) but without traction we're not going anywhere.

Giving me $1,000 will not change my spending habits - but give me $100,000 and I'd pay off the house and probably take a vacation without counting the cost.

Making money flow through the banks is doing little for the ones who really need the money - because until you have money and excellent credit you're screwed.

The Marked Decline in the Markets is not sparking BUYERS when the companies representing those Markets are plunging down at a much faster rate and slashing jobs like crazy - hugely cutting production - so everyone knows the prices will get a whole lot better.

Consumer confidence totally at record breaking lows along with the value of their most treasured asset falling down the drain.

Birch - I honestly believe I'm as BULLISH AS YOU. I don't believe we will quite see the likes of the Great Depression but I do beleive a Depression will most define the near future.

At this point the only traction I forsee - is when all Markets have been shaken down to the bottom - and I think that is probably 600 or less. Once no more jobs can be slashed - the companies are striped down to the bare essentials - and there is no place to go but up. THEN WE HAVE TRACTION and things will take off.

Am I missing something - or do you see Traction somewhere else?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The commodities bull is starting to warm up and may begin to provide leadership - today the coal and steel stocks had a nice run. Makes me glad I own positions in that area. My restaurant stocks are also getting active. Will the SPX get a break out or will we just nickle and dime our way back to 1000 - I'll take it either way. Dividend reinvestments have a nice steady flow so I buy even without any money.
 
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