Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
Thanks for bring the Ferry godmother back.

I picture her flying around banging our heads with the wand - turning us into mice when cats are around and having all kinds of fun

Well have a good weekend and just remember....

MLK and OBAMA - back to back to start the week off...

.....can't get any better than that ;):D:D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

MLK was a fornicator and has never been my hero and never will be. He lacked character and integrity as a minister right along with Jessie Jackson. Nope, no celebrating from me. I could care less about any dream he had. Perhaps I'm being overly harsh but that's how I feel - I can't stand any of them useless democrats. Will Obama be any different - I'm willing to extend my hope that he can prevail and demonstrate character and integrity. I'm still waiting for his girlfriend to appear out of the woodwork. JFK stinks, MLK stinks, Jimmy smells too, Billy stinks, all these hypocritical politicians had no integrity - and let's not forget that creep from South Carolina that ran for president - Johnny puke up cheating on his wife while she is dying from cancer. It would appear to me they all come from the same cesspool. Now I'm sure I haven't made any more friends today but that's irrelevant from my personal standpoint. There are no apologies for my rant - this is who I am.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Greg,

That was an excellent link you posted. I especially liked this quote. " the stock market tends to boom for seven years following a period when dividends yields are high..." Are we getting set again finally for the mother of all short squeezes?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
MLK was a fornicator and has never been my hero and never will be. He lacked character and integrity as a minister right along with Jessie Jackson. Nope, no celebrating from me. I could care less about any dream he had. Perhaps I'm being overly harsh but that's how I feel - I can't stand any of them useless democrats. Will Obama be any different - I'm willing to extend my hope that he can prevail and demonstrate character and integrity. I'm still waiting for his girlfriend to appear out of the woodwork. JFK stinks, MLK stinks, Jimmy smells too, Billy stinks, all these hypocritical politicians had no integrity - and let's not forget that creep from South Carolina that ran for president - Johnny puke up cheating on his wife while she is dying from cancer. It would appear to me they all come from the same cesspool. Now I'm sure I haven't made any more friends today but that's irrelevant from my personal standpoint. There are no apologies for my rant - this is who I am.
Click to expand...

You forgot about Lyndon Johnson who was the creep that sent you to Vietnam. :D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think Lyndon Johnson was one step above those other rascals - he just didn't know how to run a victorious war. There were too many white hat liberal constraints placed on us. You couldn't do that or you couldn't go there - Nixon wasn't that way. To this day I'll always respect Richard Nixon for secretly bombing Cambodia - I'm sure he saved my life. I was in the Central Highlands next to that border. Nixon redeemed himself as a statesman over time - can't say that much about those other sloths.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Among these historical episoides, perhaps the most relevant to today is the infamous Panic of 1907. It was the most famous event in market history until the Great Depression, even though most investors today aren't aware of it. In 1907 the DJIA plunged 37.7%. As the next chart shows, this decline looked uncannily like today's. Then in 1908, despite the widespread fears in late 1907, the DJIA soared 46.6%"

http://safehaven.com/article-12345.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

That is one of the most stunning reports I have seen. It is unusal to get me to post on a Friday night...but that article stopped me in my tracks. I hope to gain more courage over the next 9 trading sessions. Thanks again for that post. :)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
"Among these historical episoides, perhaps the most relevant to today is the infamous Panic of 1907. It was the most famous event in market history until the Great Depression, even though most investors today aren't aware of it. In 1907 the DJIA plunged 37.7%. As the next chart shows, this decline looked uncannily like today's. Then in 1908, despite the widespread fears in late 1907, the DJIA soared 46.6%"
http://safehaven.com/article-12345.htm
Click to expand...

felixthecat said:
That is one of the most stunning reports I have seen. It is unusal to get me to post on a Friday night...but that article stopped me in my tracks. I hope to gain more courage over the next 9 trading sessions. Thanks again for that post. :)
Click to expand...
S&P 500 58yr-history chart
View attachment 5455
http://safehaven.com/images/zeal/12345_a.png

And what happened after big down years? After falling 20%+ in a calendar year did the stock markets grind sideways like the optimists expect today? Did they plunge even farther like the pessimists expect in 2009? Neither of the above! 1974's 29.7% loss was followed by 1975's massive 31.5% gain. And 2002's 23.4% loss was followed by 2003's 26.4% gain. These were huge up years, among the best in the SPX's entire history.
http://safehaven.com/article-12345.htm

"The bottom line is stock-market history is crystal clear on post-panic stock years. Big down years are almost always followed by really big up years. The only major exception is the Great Depression, when the US economy was cut in half. If you don't expect a 50% economic contraction today, then the only sound bet to make based on market history is for a massive up year in 2009. We are talking 25% up to maybe even 50% gains in the SPX!"

"It may be hard to believe a great year is even possible today, but things always look bleak emerging out of a panic. Residual fear lingers a long time, actually until stock indexes finally rise far enough to fully dispel it 6 months or so later. Stocks rebound way before the underlying economy finally starts to recover, just like Birchtree has said all the time. Going long right after a panic is the ultimate contrarian bet, very challenging psychologically but promising huge potential rewards." :cool:
​
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Nice Birch. That is certainly a very strong contrarian argument for being all in long right now. Gives me pause for thought about my gloom and doom outlook. Even with the huge differences in the 1907 economic structure human nature (greed,fear etc.) is exactly the same and that is what drives the markets (not reason). The odds look to be on your side for a large % gain this year. I hope your right and I'm wrong. Thanks for giving me a reasoned argument for optimism. What's most interesting to me is the paradox in the argument.

Take care
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

mojo said:
Nice Birch. That is certainly a very strong contrarian argument for being all in long right now. Gives me pause for thought about my gloom and doom outlook. Even with the huge differences in the 1907 economic structure human nature (greed,fear etc.) is exactly the same and that is what drives the markets (not reason). The odds look to be on your side for a large % gain this year. I hope your right and I'm wrong. Thanks for giving me a reasoned argument for optimism. What's most interesting to me is the paradox in the argument.

Take care
Click to expand...

Add to that Cramer is telling people to go to cash with less than a 5 yr horizon and you know the market will go up. ;)
Good article Birch. Thanks.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
"Among these historical episoides, perhaps the most relevant to today is the infamous Panic of 1907. It was the most famous event in market history until the Great Depression, even though most investors today aren't aware of it. In 1907 the DJIA plunged 37.7%. As the next chart shows, this decline looked uncannily like today's. Then in 1908, despite the widespread fears in late 1907, the DJIA soared 46.6%"

http://safehaven.com/article-12345.htm
Click to expand...


Birch, that is one of the most profound articles I have read in the past few months that contains in depth historical market research spanning over a hundred years. I had come accross an article recently when I was researching this same topic and found information that in the first one hundred days of the FDR administration the market was up 43% after a dismal previous year. I am of the opinion that the upside looks better then the downside now regardless of the earnings and employment situation. There is a lot of fear and negitive thinking out there. (positive sign) for the market. By the way I am in the market as of earlier this week. HH

http://iht.com/articles/1993/01/08/wall.php?page=1
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

Here is a wonderful and positive thought...

As of late 2007 I had averaged about 10% return.

Now, about 5%.

Joy...

Soon enough we will get the bounce. However, I will not be invested to my normal allocation till I see the direction ‘The One’ wants to take us. Will he accept short term pain as we – the consumer – deleverage, or will he attempt to keep the crack party running by yanking credit cards out of the wallets of passed out addicts?

My guess is that 2009 will be a stinker though the entire year. It will take that much time for scared Americans to pay off their credit cards and start on their HEL loans.

After that, if ‘The One’ does actually change the tax treatment on dividends he will watch as companies move assets from the profit column (they pay dividends with after tax cash) to some other column on the balance sheet. Investors will NOT want dividends taxed at a 30%+ income tax rate when they can hope for change (up) in the stock price.

So, me not know where to go. Not real confident
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mr Birch

Thanks for the link to that article. Now if I read the chart right, if I go all in at the end of February and get some out by Thanksgiving, then Ill be...

It is very interesting. I am a little confused about the "Both axes are zeroed" statement. Zeroed to what? Did he mean he adjusted the charts so the percentages up/down are equal?

Thanks again

Dave
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I think Lyndon Johnson was one step above those other rascals - he just didn't know how to run a victorious war. There were too many white hat liberal constraints placed on us. You couldn't do that or you couldn't go there - Nixon wasn't that way. To this day I'll always respect Richard Nixon for secretly bombing Cambodia - I'm sure he saved my life. I was in the Central Highlands next to that border. Nixon redeemed himself as a statesman over time - can't say that much about those other sloths.
Click to expand...

Birchtree, if you get a chance you should read Max Boot's Savage Wars of Peace. Great piece of work that gets to the heart of the way we fight wars, discusses in depth the reason we continue to struggle in wars against less-developed states, and shows readers why we can expect to fight more of those kinds of wars vice the big conventional wars we seem so obsessed with.

Thanks for hanging the Adam Hamilton article. Best market reading I've seen in a while.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

That was a good speech by Obama today. Of course that louse Teddy had to usurp some of the acclaim. I wish he'd go meet Mary Jo and be done with it - I'm truly tired of looking at him. The Obama people now should look at the toxic waste that is dragging down the banks by buying up that stuff to free up the capital banks need to get back in the game. I think that will be the next step foer TARP #2. This whole episode of massive government bailouts reminds me of "Atlas Shrugged" by Ann Rand. The first time I tried to read it I didn't get very far because I didn't have the economics background but now it seems very pertinent after 50 years.
 
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