Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Every major country worldwide is doing all they can to soften the blow and bring this crisis to an end. The last thing anyone wants is a deflation/depression. And as these signs have instensified, governments are taking stronger, even desparate measures. Chart 1 provides a great illustration of what we mean. This shows the Federal Reserve's Monetary Base. As you can see, it has exploded in a way never seen before. The last we heard it was soaring at an annual rate of 75%, which is beyond unprecedented".

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/aden/aden010209.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, I thought you'd appreciate this little tidbit: In the Chinese zodiac, 2009 is the Year of the Ox. Hmmm ...
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Ox, stubborn and unyielding, single minded to a goal. According to tradition, the second animal to arrive during the last hours of the life of Buddah, or the order in which they reported to the Jade Emperor. The Rat (lunar year roughtly equivalent to 2008) got there first by jumping over the backs of the other animals; finally riding between the horns of the Ox. The Rat and the Ox have the distinction of not being intimidated by the Tiger (3rd to arrive) - all the other animals didn't want to get near the Tiger's mouth. Even the Tiger respects the horns and the Ox makes a great crowd parter.

BTW, the cat never made it, legend says either the Rat pushed him into the water, or told him the wrong day. That'll tell you what the animal for 2008 is like. I prefer the Ox.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

With a very positive advance/decline line today - the targets were easy to hit. However, one looks at the market, given the extent of the fall, this is not a time to become increasingly bearish, but is one in which to make provisions and possible purchases for a recovery scenario. My pockets are full to the brim with good stocks. I showed some greed when the world was falling apart and used the opportunity to by some high quality names that hopefully will grow wealth through time. If this collapse has been historic and we all know it was, then rebounds that follow historic collapses can often be equally dramatic. Believe me it is never easy to battle feelings of inadequacy and powerlessness that overcome you in bear markets. But a disciplined renagade contrarian always moves forward and the ability to self fund is golden in these times. Cash may seem like the greatest refuge but when a market abounds with bargains cash is not the place to be. Usually by the time it's evident the bear market is over, the market is up 30%, so you can't pick bottoms.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Jimmy Cricketts - Peter Schiff was on Kudlow this evening and he says he is buying stocks every day. Damn that makes me nervous. We are definitely at the start of a bullish advance that will last into July. There are signs things are not everywhere as bad as conventional wisdom suggests. The long term money flow continues to remain positive and in bullish configuration with new all time highs looking over the valley. What happens when the Fed starts to buy mortgage paper and mortgage rates drop to 4% - it could be enormous for the equity markets. I'm running in front of the train again.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"So, imagine our amazement when we tallied Retail insider activity on Black Friday, the busiest retail day of the year, and found the most optimism we have ever encountered in the sector right on the heels of a stock market collapse and an obvious recession in progress. Clearly, insiders are relatively reluctant to sell at these levels and afford hope that the economic recession will not be as bad as many now fear. A sell/buy ratio of 4.7 to 1, is by far the lowest we have encountered in the last couple of years."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/tac/newman.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Peter Schiff was buying stocks? Man, that's news as he's been saying bad things would be happening soon for the last 12-18 months.

Myself, I'm looking for a good entry point and I'll jump off the lilly pad. I'm getting a feeling that the end of this week might not be too soon.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The point is very clear here, that almost every single disaster has yielded tremendous opportunity for those who were able (with fortitude) to take the long term view. Instead of selling everything and fleeing for the hills, investors should be buying and or at the very least holding onto their positions; the time to sell is when others are singing and jumping with joy and the time to buy is when blood is freely flowing in the streets. Opportunity is made to look like a disaster and disaster looks like opportunity." It's been time to buy, although only the most iron-willed investor would stroll calmly into equities personal experience certainly helps. If you're a long term investor, hold as much risk as you can tolerate - don't fear the hedge funds they have all been circumcised.

http://safehaven.com/article-12234.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

turbo23dog said:
Peter Schiff was buying stocks? Man, that's news as he's been saying bad things would be happening soon for the last 12-18 months.

Myself, I'm looking for a good entry point and I'll jump off the lilly pad. I'm getting a feeling that the end of this week might not be too soon.
Click to expand...

He said he was buying gold, mining and foreign stocks. And other currencies rather than the $.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I'm now buying my individual stocks for the economic recovery that is in front of us - even if that is three years from now. You might look at three stocks that got slammed yesterday - NFX, FCX, PXP. Both LTD and DLX are economically sensitive to the consumer and this gloom and doom will turn and I'm trying to be prepared building my base. A rebound could come with a vengence out of the blue. With your new account you have to decide if you are going to be an investor or a trader - good luck in any direction you take.
Click to expand...
Good call Birchtree.
The Infrastructure buzz = industrial steel, so I took a huge plunge into FCX, it's paying off.
Copper will have pull backs, but $2/lb is right around the corner.

BTW, When Obama chose Paul Volcker(remember the 80's) to lead the economic recovery, I knew he would reverse policy, and lower corporate taxes.


100 S
God Bless
:)

p.s. Happy Birthday wv-girl!!!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Oh that bearish slant is still around but I'm not a believer if you don't mind.

http://safehaven.com/article-12235.htm

http://www.bearmarketcentral.com/chartoftheweek.htm
Click to expand...

Watched an interview with the CEO (Head of) NYSE last night. He made me think of you by stressing "Pessimism is so high and widespread" that he is all the more BULLISH.

I'd say the BEARISH SLANT is the biggest thing in your favor; as nothing would more psychologically give the BUL some power.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Look for a crescendo to the downside to end the week courtesey of poor earnings and the jobs report. This will make the first full week in January negative...and so goes Jan...and so will go 2009...or so they say. It will break the backs of the bulls.

Obama's nation is one of deflation. You can't MAKE banks lend silly rabbits! LOL. How about making people borrow! Crazy :D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

It has finally started. A private equity firm called PennyMac has recently purchased $800 million of distressed mortgages from the FDIC at $0.30 on the dollar. This is huge. I'm looking for a panic rally to flame up real soon. Housing is in the process of bottoming and slowly stabilizing. CMOs are being bought with a potential for profits.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
recently purchased $800 million.
Click to expand...

Birch,
I know $800 million sounds like a lot to me and you and basically everyone else.

In terms of the overall picture it is pocket change - at best.

As my dad would say: "Millions are like pennys"

Anyway - good night my friend.
 
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