Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Poolman,

Thanks for the articles. I currently hold eight of the companies on that first list.

 

[poolman]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Poolman,

Thanks for the articles. I currently hold eight of the companies on that first list.

Good Job Birchtree, You are welcome.

 

[mick504]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I was reading the Florida Times Union Sunday when I came across an article about the gun show circuit. The organizer was saying that there had been a very large increase in attendance and individual gun sales. There were also a marked increase by individuals applying for concealed weapons permits. There was a photograph of one of the tables and all the potential customers lined up - both female and male. There however were no tans. I thought that was interesting. There was also another story that mentioned the death rate among young black males had increased 39% over last year. Something is going on under the radar and good folks are getting prepared with heat - I've always had mine so I'm not concerned - but what is the worry? I wish I knew.

Birchtree...I would think the major increase in gun sales is due to the election of our new 'beloved' president...Obama! The expected clampdown on gun purchases due to changes in the existing laws! So if in need reload now! I used to a have carry permit but since living oversees currently had to sell the arsonal I had accummulated! So now it's bolo knives (Machete's) and baseball bats...not alot of help! 100 % C fund! JL

 

[Silverbird]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ha, Obama is not going to have time to pass Federal legislation on gun control, and it's not on his agenda of issues. He needs to have the Govenors work with him, why antagonize them? I suspect overturning State legislation (and the non-State District) may be another story, for the same reason, it's not worth playing "idealist" on either side of this issue right now. If he was an "idealist" we'd have different candidates for his cabinet; for instance Bush Jr.'s first cabinet was neo-conservative, and on the other extreme, there's Carter's cabinet. Obama's cabinet does NOT look like Carter's!!

Congress, it's possible, though you can again say this should NOT be on their agenda of issues. Can you say filibuster?? Some of the moderate Democrats would say this is a waste of time in a crisis (I know Jim Webb would think it's stupid).

Considering the economy, and increased robbery and crime that are following it, no surprise on gun sales!!! I even had half a thought about it, but with bad perpheral vision, and no training, even though I could get one, I'd be a foo.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The 200 day moving average for the VIX is at 33.89 and currently resting around 37.34. The bear market's back has been broken now that we have penetrated the 60-day moving average uptrend. Intermediate term the market is getting stronger.

"The number of NYSE stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages has increased to 60% from almost zero in October. Inorder to be bullish about the secondary trend, one would expect the majority of stocks to be above the 50-day line. For a primary trend to manifest itself, the bulk of the index constituents also need to trade above their 200-day averages. This is a slow indicator, but the number at the moment is still a non-existent 8.0%. A reading above 60% is normally needed to signal a new bull market."

http://safehaven.com/article-12189.htm

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The number of NYSE stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages has increased to 60% from almost zero in October. Inorder to be bullish about the secondary trend, one would expect the majority of stocks to be above the 50-day line. "

http://safehaven.com/article-12189.htm

It's easy for stocks to get above the 50 day moving average when the darn thing is moving down and to the right at such a large angle! :cheesy:

Admit it...you are just bullish because our savior Obama is going to make everything ok!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That's cute - I have no confidence in Nobama or I would have voted for him - but I do wish him well for the sake of the country. No, I'm bullish because the market does not reflect the economy - all the bad news is included already. The fundamentals are actually much better than the consensus thinks and this will be indicated by the market recovery. I'm counting on the 6-year Kress cycle to lift me up. The newly formed 6-year up cycle is gaining strength and becoming dominant. The previous 6 year cycle bottom ended the bear market in October 2002 and the bear market of 2008 has also been killed by the 6-year cycle bottom.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm counting on the 6-year Kress cycle to lift me up. The newly formed 6-year up cycle is gaining strength and becoming dominant. The previous 6 year cycle bottom ended the bear market in October 2002 and the bear market of 2008 has also been killed by the 6-year cycle bottom.

Birch - I can't count on the Kress Cycle until I understand it as well as you BUT I DO AGREE that according to a recent article he feels we are indeed on the UP TREND.

In a big way the fundamentals and bad news - and everything else attached to reality (and what we would perceive as reality) makes no difference. If in fact the Kress Cycle turns out to be a proven event (which I have yet to determine) then everything swings accordingly and we have simply bought into the Media's View when in fact the Cycle was essentially behind it. In otherwords what we need to determine is: Are the Markets Logic Based as the Media Projects or Are They Based on the Kress Cycle?

BTW - good night my brother (and to everyone else) - have a good weekend

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

For me the key is to already have great positionsa sitting in the portfolio when the next bull move comes - today was a good start. In all cases the market has rebounded in as nearly a dramatic fashion as it fell. Analysts are at their least bullish levels ever - only 36% of all ratings are currently buys - that's perfect. Looking back at prior bubbles, when they have burst, the market has almost always overcorrected. But stock market history shows that just as today's downturn has been pathologically violent, you can expect a vicious, ferocious upswing as the massive government created liquidity waits for a vent hole.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

you can expect a vicious, ferocious upswing as the massive government created liquidity waits for a vent hole.

How about a "black hole"...as in GMAC lowering min. credit rating thresholds in order to scrounge up people to actually lend to. If the only way we can get money moving is to give it to those who won't pay it back...then we are going nowhere fast. Just think about it...GMAC borrows money for 8% , then lends it out to 621 credit scores at 0%. It boils down to robbing the public treasury and burning a portion of it. Nice.

 

[Scribbler]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Exactly.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

S&P 500 Dividend Payers Outperform Non-Payers in December

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Greg,

I'm almost sorry I went to your link - there was so much good stuff to read I could hardly pull myself away. Some great reading on bear market rallies and deflation. Ah, often times taking the road less traveled leads to higher returns. I visited the disciplined approach to investing article - I like it that way. It was interesting to note that the bullish reading last week fell below the reading on Nov. 20th. What a wonderful bottom. The panic day of October 10th marked an internal bottom when 92.6% of the stocks on the NYSE broke to new lows - where as a price bottom was recorded on November 20th.

I pulled in 13 dividend payers on Friday and three exchanges. The Dow's performance in 2008 (-33.8%) ranks as the third worst on record. Only 1931 and 1907 endured greater declines. The MCO (NYSE McClellan Oscillator) is at a new high of 108.63. That's a very positive development. The MCSUM is at -87.20. The NYSE breadth MCSUM should hit the declining trend line within a few trading days. If we hit resistance then we may turn down hard - but if we break the trend line there is no resistance before we reach +700. The long term money flow remains positive and in bullish configuration with new all time highs. I feel confident of at least a $100K week in my immediated future - long live the massive bear market rally all the way to S&P 500 mark of 1380. The smell of superlative bull manure is really sweet and pungent at the same time. The worst course in the face of uncertainty is blind faith in conventional wisdom and past patterns - this contrarian is open wide for the big V to wallop one on the bears.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Greg,

I'm almost sorry I went to your link - there was so much good stuff to read I could hardly pull myself away.

Master Guru,
Compared to you - the rest of us are just kids trying to learn. Almost sorry implies a humble acknowledgement that we may actually post something worhwhile. But nothing can surpass the age old wisdom of financially sound practices.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

I don't believe that I ever did thank you for your heartfelt concerns back in October when I was plunging to earth with out a chute. Because I was acting totally irrational by buying stocks all the way down to the bitter bottom - you were concerned that I may not have had any financial reserves for protection. I told you I had $500K sitting in certificates of deposit at four different banks but that was my western North Carolina land money for a summer home. Well, I made the ultimate sacrifice and spent it all on stocks during the placement of our current bottom. At these prices this money certainly will quadruple over the next several years and then I'll gently start replacing my land money - I still got that dream. Already I've made some good returns and this rally is just getting started. You know I'm bullish, stayed bullish during this whole sad unprecedented event and remain bullish as a long term investor. I expect my oceanic account to grow to at least $3M before 2009 is over. There are signs things are not everywhere as bad as conventional wisdom suggests and my money is where my mouth is. Snort. Open the pasture gate Ferdinand and let the bulls stampede. I came down hard from the blind side and will gain to the upside as fast as I declined - there are no hard feelings on my part - this event provides probably my last great opportunity to really put the hammer down and ring the fortune bell.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If it was that easy, everyone would be piling into the market right now, but they are not. We'll probably get a cautious rally going and then WHAM! The rug will get pulled out from under them. October 2008 Part II...waterfall of red.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The stock market seems to have finally climbed aboard the Fed's bullish bandwagon. All of which brings us to a very dramatic and critical juncture. If the market heads higher in early January, I believe that money on the sidelines ($8.85 trillion - 74% of US market cap) could begin to turn optimistic and even bullish. S&P gains during January's first five trading days preceded full-year gains 86% of the time. These numerous crashes have the look of completed declines - declines from which bases are forming. Following a true crash, stocks and stock averages have a habit of recovering roughly 50% of the action lost in the crash. And I'm wondering whether these patterns are now indicating that a tradeable low has been reached by this bear market. The news continues awful, and yet these various stock bottoms, following crashes, appear to be holding.

There's more cash available to buy shares than at any time in almost two decades, a sign to some of the most successful investors that equities will rebound after the worst year for US stocks since the Great Depression. So far the SPX has gained 23% off the Nov. 20th low in less than two months." I know that surely makes me feel better. Often times taking the road less traveled leads to higher returns. The TED Spread is getting very close to moving below the lower uptrend line and when that happens money will come off the sidelines to propel equities much higher - just wait. The credit crisis is ending thanks to the Fed.

http://safehaven.com/article-12207.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Birchtree Creed to invest by - the sheer levels of fear driven by such October and November volatility were so irrational on the downside that the subsequent upside will probably end up breaking a lot of records as well. Betting long like I do during a stock panic is the ultimate high-potential contrarian play. The opportunities presented by this stock panic are vast beyond belief. Since there is blood flowing in the streets-soon to be bear blood-and no one wants stocks, fortunes will be made by the brave few contrarians willing to buy when everyone else is selling. The extreme volatility is already abating with the VIX below its 60 day moving average, and after such a massive fear event a major rally to bleed off the fear is almost certain. I will simply continue to ride the secular bull through turbulent times. We are in the very early stages of a new multi-year bull market and this rebound will probably take the markets back to their 200-day moving averages. The DJIA 200 day is at 10,924 and the SPX 200 day is at 1183. I happen to like the I fund at this time - not only is the Nikkei 225 trading where it was in 1982, but it is trading at a mere 4 times cash flow. If you are a long term investor, now is the time to hold as much risk as you can tolerate and hang on to your shorts.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

I don't believe that I ever did thank you for your heartfelt concerns back in October when I was plunging to earth with out a chute. Because I was acting totally irrational by buying stocks all the way down to the bitter bottom - you were concerned that I may not have had any financial reserves for protection.

Well it's plain and simple - I love you and deeply respect you.

Nothing irrational about buying selective stocks when they are hitting a rare bottom. 08/09 will undoubtedly remain an historic event for dire economic conditions.

I told you I had $500K sitting in certificates of deposit at four different banks but that was my western North Carolina land money for a summer home. Well, I made the ultimate sacrifice and spent it all on stocks during the placement of our current bottom.

Well unfortunately what is done is done and there is no taking it back. I probably would have bought the land and invested the rest. I imagine you mean the $500K is for both land and house.

At these prices this money certainly will quadruple over the next several years and then I'll gently start replacing my land money - I still got that dream.

Quadruple may be stretching it - but I would say you could at a minimum count on doubling your investments. Land may increase in value over time as well but all things considered you'll still come out ahead.

Already I've made some good returns and this rally is just getting started.

It's hard to avoid the celebration mood and feeling good about being in high risk with a week like last week. The problem is the Markets went up DESPITE (or in the face of) significant bad reports. The hard times are unavoidable and down swings will have to occur.

You know I'm bullish, stayed bullish during this whole sad unprecedented event and remain bullish as a long term investor.

This unprecendented event stikes at the very core of all we've been grounded to believe in. The safety of the Banks, the integrity of loans - the security of our homes... all fueled by greed and coruption. Because this is an unprecended event on a significant global magnitude I suspect much of 09 will be difficult as well.

We have no grounds for abandoning BULLISH DREAMS but I feel these dreams would be far better acknowledged if the high paid execs had to pay back what they took; if those who blinding over looked faulty loans got punished; if the UAW had their benefits and pay largely reduced - and other concrete changes were openly enacted to let the general population know CHANGES ARE HAPPENING.

I don't see these changes; instead it's like "let's sweep everything under the carpet and just throw out trillions and start all over".

I expect my oceanic account to grow to at least $3M before 2009 is over.

If it's 1.5M now - I would expect it to be reduced by 20% and then regain some of that loss before 09 is over.

There are signs things are not everywhere as bad as conventional wisdom suggests and my money is where my mouth is. Snort.

I'd say the sting for many countries will be more painful in 09; but we will largely be over the worst.

Open the pasture gate Ferdinand and let the bulls stampede.

I can't right now because there are too many flowers in the field for me to smell and admire. Right now I'm thinking about spinging the gate in 7/09 as I believe the upward cycle begins mid year.

I came down hard from the blind side and will gain to the upside as fast as I declined - there are no hard feelings on my part - this event provides probably my last great opportunity to really put the hammer down and ring the fortune bell.

Well since we're in confession mode. I've got a bag of Ethiopian Organic Coffee on my desk that I bought through 'Equal Exchange'.

This may be a little more expensive than your store variaties but it's dealing more directly with the small farmers without the middle man. So to me it's worth it when I know the ones really spending the time to gather the best beans possible get their just reward.

I'm bothered when cashiers at the stores (or fast food places) ask me if I want to donate a dollar for this or that because I give at least 6 times what others give in charitable contributions according to Turbo Tax - and I feel like they are assuming I simply hoard my money and never do anything.

Work on that Birch - make sure cashiers don't solicit me when I'm getting a cup of coffee or something. Thanks

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"S&P earnings are anticipated to be up 14.9% for the fourth quarter, due to easy year over year earnings comparisons after the dramatic write-downs in the fourth quarter of 2007. In fact, the earnings comparisons for the S&P 500 in all of 2009 are anticipated to be somw what easy due to extensive write-downs throughout 2008. In other words, the trough in corporate earnings could be behind us".

http://navellier.com/commentary/weekly_marketmail.aspx