Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I noticed the mortgage application rate has increased by 45% last month - notably mostly refinancings I presume. Eventually new home buyers will step up. Mortgage rates have tumbled to their lowest levels in nearly 40 years. Barclays Capital economists estimate that since 1975, one percentage point of falling borrowing costs has added 15% to home sales and 1.5% to home prices. However, lower rates have so far mainly produced more refinancings and not sales. But improvements of sales will develope - I'm sure of it.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I agree Birchtree.
My wife and I are just waiting for any sign of decent news and we plan on Mortgaging another home (probably just property) for investment. Home prices and loan rates are tough to pass up and if I'm willing to buy and hold stock, why not property.

Enjoy your Holiday

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I noticed the mortgage application rate has increased by 45% last month - notably mostly refinancings I presume. Eventually new home buyers will step up. Mortgage rates have tumbled to their lowest levels in nearly 40 years. Barclays Capital economists estimate that since 1975, one percentage point of falling borrowing costs has added 15% to home sales and 1.5% to home prices. However, lower rates have so far mainly produced more refinancings and not sales. But improvements of sales will develope - I'm sure of it.

Apps don't equate to sales, brother.

Anyway, have a great Christmas and I hope to be back in the market soon. I know you don't subscribe to timing, but I have only lost 14% this year and I am happy with that!

Take Care and I'll see you on the other side of the holidays!

Frixxxx

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From TWSJ print edition 12/22/08 by E.S. Browning "If Stocks Head Lower Over the Holidays, Investors Can Probably Expect More Pain".

"In this gift-giving season, investors who track stock patterns are hoping the market will offer a nice present. Historically, the month of December has been the year's best, and January has been close behind.

Even more tantalizing, December's last five trading days and January's first five, a time when some people are too busy to think much about the stock market, often represent one of the strongest periods for stock gains. Of course, these aren't ordinary times, and that is why people are watching year-end stock movements particularly closely now. If the stock market behaves as it usually does and rises sharply, giving everyone a nice gift, investors may turn more optimistic about 2009. If the market struggles, fear will spread that another tough year could be ahead.

Investors were shocked by what happened a year ago, when stocks didn't follow the historical pattern. The DJIA celebrated last Christmas with a 1.4% drop in 2007's final five trading days. It rang in the new year by sagging another 5.1% in the next five days. That performance was entirely out of whack with the past. Since 1901, the Dow has averaged a 1.1% gain in the old year's final trading week, and a 0.6% advance in the new year's first trading week, according to Ned Davis Research. That is far above the performance for an ordinary five day period during the year, when the Dow typically is up about 0.1% (reflecting the fact that stocks, on average, trend gradually higher).

The much-watched 10-day period begins on Christmas Eve this year and continues through Jan. 8."

The ratio of insider buying to insider selling in the fourth quarter of 2008 has not been this high since yhe early 1990s. Also, the rate at which housing prices have been decreasing has been increasing. That should begin to eat up inventory overhang.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Although the Fed and other central bank's actions have resulted in some progress being made to fix the broken credit machine, the thawing of the credit markets still has a considerable way to go before liquidity starts to move freely and the world's financial system functions normally again".

http://safehaven.com/article-12162.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"I've been using Bank of America (BAC) as a bellweather for financial stocks. Bof A fell $1.13 for the week to $13.80. Confidence doesn't yet exist that financials are ready to move higher but money is being positioned to take advantage of this possibility. If the TED Spread continues to move lower, I believe that financials will rotate back into favor and will eventually lead the markets higher. There is a lot of fear that financials will enter a prolonged period of poor performance. The TED Spread fell thirty-three basis points since last Friday, closing at 1.58. I had been waiting for the TED Spread to drop below 1.80 and it has finally occurred. The Fed's attempts to get credit flowing again are meeting with success. More money will come off the sidelines to propel equities higher when the Spread moves below the lower uptrend line." See graph.

http://safehaven.com/article-12163.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Crash confidence looks bullish. In November, the individual Crash Confidence reading reached its lowest level ever at 22.73%. This negativity is actuallt a positive for the market going forward."

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke

 

[Davehop21]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Merry Christmas Birch, I own AA and MO and I am looking for the third stock to build on with a 4 year time horizon. I am looking at PFE. Any suggestions. My intent is to add 300 bucks to one of them each month depending on which looks like the best price each mont. Of course I am following you drip plan as well.

Thanks, Dave at VA

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I like PFE and have owned it since 7/15/02 and have bought more all along the rail. They are currently yielding 7.79% and will pay their next dividend 3/05/09. My number of shares accumulated from dividend reinvestment are getting larger with the passage of time - that's exactly how it's supposed to work. I hope it stays in the teens all next year.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

So far we have two positive days of the 10-day period that began on Christmas Eve and will continue through January 8. While the 10-day period is a good indicator of how worried investors are, some analysts note that the full month of January has historically been an even more reliable pointer to performance for the rest of the year. If stocks haven't moved into the black by January's end, it is an even worse sign.

From the print edition of TWSJ 12/26/08 by Zachary Karabell.

"The rush to declare the future bleak has obscured the fact that no one knows the outcome of an unprecedented even. No one. The worst course in the face of uncertainty is blind faith in conventional wisdom and past patterns. The best is to stay humble in the face of the unknown, creative and unideological about solutions, and open to the possibility that as quickly as things turned sour they can recerse. And yet, if things came to a halt more quickly than ever before, they could also restart more quickly than ever before. That is not to say they will, only that the possibility is more than marginal. And there are signs things are not everywhere as bad as conventional wisdom suggests".

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I like PFE and have owned it since 7/15/02 and have bought more all along the rail. They are currently yielding 7.79% and will pay their next dividend 3/05/09. My number of shares accumulated from dividend reinvestment are getting larger with the passage of time - that's exactly how it's supposed to work. I hope it stays in the teens all next year.

In A First, Pfizer Doesn't Raise Dividend
[SIZE=-1]Forbes, NY - Dec 15, 2008[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]For the first time in 42 years Pfizer is not raising the dividend it pays shareholders on a quarterly basis, the company announced today. ...[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]Pfizer Freezes Dividend After 41 Years of Increases [SIZE=-1]Bloomberg

--

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/...d=news_view&newsId=20081219005770&newsLang=en
[/SIZE][/SIZE] December 19, 2008 02:36 PM Eastern Time
Fitch Affirms Pfizer, Inc.'s IDR at 'AA+/F1+'; Outlook Negative


CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Fitch Ratings has affirmed Pfizer Inc.'s (Pfizer) Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) and debt ratings as follows:
--Long-term IDR at 'AA+';
--Short-term IDR at 'F1+';
--Senior unsecured debt rating at 'AA+';
--Bank loan rating at 'AA+'.
The ratings apply to approximately $16.3 billion of debt. The Rating Outlook remains Negative.
Pfizer has been successful at mitigating the effects of the patent expiry of three of its six top-selling pharmaceuticals since the second quarter of 2006, from solid performace of medicines launched since 2005, including Lyrica, Sutent, and Chantix, as well as major restructuring initiatives starting in 2005. During this period of patent losses, EBITDA and revenues have stayed at consistent levels. The company is now tasked to counter a period of significant drug patent expiration in 2011-2012, which includes the loss of market exclusivity in 2011 for Lipitor representing 26% of total revenues. Fitch anticipates the worst affect of patent expirations will occur in 2012.

 

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Do you remember a while back Greg, the big question was "is this the BIG ONE" yes my friend this is the "BIG ONE". We are part of HISTORY!!!

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Do you remember a while back Greg, the big question was "is this the BIG ONE" yes my friend this is the "BIG ONE". We are part of HISTORY!!!

nnuut,

I found out the hard way that I had become part of history when my daughter was in grade school and she had to write a report about the Vietnam war and had to ask me what I did during that time. Talk about feeling old. :notrust: Oh, by the way in 1970 my draft number was 26.

 

[XL-entLady]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

nnuut,

I found out the hard way that I had become part of history when my daughter was in grade school and she had to write a report about the Vietnam war and had to ask me what I did during that time. Talk about feeling old. Oh, by the way in 1970 my draft number was 26.

Birch, may I use your home for another 'feeling old' story? Thanks, you're so hospitable!

One day while my children were in their early teens, I started singing along with the song on the radio. My daughter asked, "Why do you know that song, Mom?" I responded, "Because it's Yesterday and that's one of the most popular songs that the Beatles ever wrote!" And she replied, "Who are the Beatles?" :blink:

Made me feel very old ! :laugh:

Lady

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, may I use your home for another 'feeling old' story? Thanks, you're so hospitable!

One day while my children were in their early teens, I started singing along with the song on the radio. My daughter asked, "Why do you know that song, Mom?" I responded, "Because it's Yesterday and that's one of the most popular songs that the Beatles ever wrote!" And she replied, "Who are the Beatles?" :blink:

Made me feel very old ! :laugh:

Lady

OUCH!!!!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We had an unprecedented event starting in September as a result of the irrational panic from the hedge fund industry. I still prefer to blame it on the Bossanova.

 

[Eldritch Flatus]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The summer of 1968, my draft number was 7. Gave new meaning to the concept of your number is up!. I just went.

Sorry, but I do not feel old.:nuts: Beat up, but not old.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Those were the days my friend when we thought they would never end." The Beatles.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Those were the days my friend when we thought they would never end." The Beatles.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Those_Were_the_Days_(song)

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk