Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The sharp drop in oil prices amounts to the equivalent of a massive stimulus package for big consuming countries worth hundreds of billions of dollars. The nation's current account deficit narrowed in the third quarter as a broad gain in exports outstripped the rise in imports. Would it be possible that exports might salvage the Q4 GDP? Sooner or later, stock prices will follow those businesses that continue to improve fundamentally. Stocks are massively undervalued here and that's why I've been buying them super-aggressively. You simply have to remain disciplined and true to your strategy. I like the idea that smart money appears not to be buying into this rally yet. When bonds become boring money will shift back to stocks for action.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Standard and Poors (S&P) revised their outlook on GE's credit rating from stable to negative.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From Arch Crawford: "This pullback is likely to form a right shoulder on a potential reverse head and shoulder bottom formation. From there, an explosive year-end move could develop in the upward direction, which we expect to be very profitable. Rally should rise well into January. After a corrective phase into late February. a much stronger and more lasting advance is indicated by the Bradely Model well into the summer of 2009." Today was still a 2 to 1 on the NYSE advance/decline line and a money maker for me.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The 200-day moving average for the VIX is at 33.89 and we are currently resting at 41.53. The bear market's back has been broken now that we have penetrated the 60-day moving average uptrend. Intermediate term the market is getting stronger with established higher lows intact. The MCSUM (McClellan Summation Index) appears headed for the zero line and is now at -488.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/PAULENOFF.html

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Obama: Recovery will take years...

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The 200-day moving average for the VIX is at 33.89 and we are currently resting at 41.53. The bear market's back has been broken now that we have penetrated the 60-day moving average uptrend. Intermediate term the market is getting stronger with established higher lows intact. The MCSUM (McClellan Summation Index) appears headed for the zero line and is now at -488.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/PAULENOFF.html

check your calculations:

the 200 dma on the vix is 43.85, and continuing to show the smooth rise that it has for months. have a nice day

 

[budnipper1]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The 200-day moving average for the VIX is at 33.89 and we are currently resting at 41.53. The bear market's back has been broken now that we have penetrated the 60-day moving average uptrend. Intermediate term the market is getting stronger with established higher lows intact. The MCSUM (McClellan Summation Index) appears headed for the zero line and is now at -488.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/PAULENOFF.html

check your calculations:

the 200 dma on the vix is 43.85, and continuing to show the smooth rise that it has for months. have a nice day

Not an expert at charts, but 200dma looks like 33.92 here.
"Index value" = 44.93
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View attachment 5267

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VIX#symbol=^VIX;range=1y;compare=
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[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The bear market's back has been broken now that we have penetrated the 60-day moving average uptrend.

huh huh. he he.

He said, "penetrated."

 

[budnipper1]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

huh huh. he he. He said, "penetrated.

View attachment 5268
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"

:nuts: :laugh:
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http://www.retrojunk.com/img/art-images/beavis_and_butthead_280705.jpg

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I need t.p. for my bung hole.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

no laughing

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Not an expert at charts, but 200dma looks like 33.92 here.
"Index value" = 44.93
​

View attachment 5267

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VIX#symbol=^VIX;range=1y;compare=
​

that's right - I was looking at a 200 minute ma, not the dma. But neverthelessirregardless, the market is heading south - lame buying action on a santa rally that ain't gonna happen.

What will happen next year are a couple million more foreclosures - why?

Because there are no consequences. WTF would anyone want to re-fi a loan for $400,000, on a house worth $250,000, even if they could?

Answer: they don't - and will just plain walk; 25 months (not 7 years) later, they will qualifiy for an FHA loan, WHICH ALLOWS a foreclosure or a bankruptcy and STILL will make a loan. Sure ain't much motivation for anyone to hang on.

Expect the housing market to tank another 15% next summer, which would make it WAY overvalued; but buoyed up by cheap interest rates. The financials, and the rest of the stock market, will follow - to an S&P of 680 or less sometime during 2009.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey one cell,

You may be right or you may be wrong - regardless I like your style and attitude.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Dow futures are looking good this evening - +73. Hope it gets even stronger for tomorrow.

 

[Uptrend]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

IMO the market will move up the next 3 trading sessions. Probably break 912 spx pivot and head up and be stopped around 940. That is about a 6% move and is entirely possible. Fundamentals won't matter much, because the institutional buyers left for Christmas, leaving the little guy to nibble away; kind of like a abay auction - starts at a penny and goes up from there.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

25 months (not 7 years) later, they will qualifiy for an FHA loan, WHICH ALLOWS a foreclosure or a bankruptcy and STILL will make a loan. Sure ain't much motivation for anyone to hang on.

And there I was stupidly thinking the nation had learned from this body blow and only the left over "no recourse" clauses were the problem. I was surprised at the 25 months statement above and found the information below. We still have a loose regulatory environment. I'm watching a small business slowly die due to the housing collapse in an area affected by subprimes in the DC area and was thinking at least the home loan regulations were tight enough to entice people to keep making payments. I guess not.

http://homebuying.about.com/od/buyingahome/qt/BuyBadCredit.htm#

• The period between bankruptcy filings is seven years, but the ding to your credit report stays for 10 years.
• For better rates with a conforming loan, the wait is four years after filing bankruptcy.
• FHA guidelines are two years after a foreclosure, which means you could qualify for as little as 3% down.
• Hard-money lenders will often make loans six months after filing bankruptcy or a foreclosure, but will a require 20 to 35% down payment. The interest rate will be very high and the loan terms are not as favorable; many will contain prepayment penalties and be adjustable.
• Sub-prime lenders (not to be confused with hard-money lenders) can make 100% loans after a reasonable seasoning period, if your FICO is at least 580.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Maybe Birchtree will tell us why anyone would bother to pay the mortgage on a house that's $100,000 underwater, when they could stay there for free for 6-8 months during foreclosure/eviction proceedings, and then buy a similar house for a whole lot less in two years with a piddly 3% down.

Our local paper had a piece yesterday on this scenario; and a leading real estate broker said for underwater owners to "just milk it for every cent its worth"; just stay there, get thrown out, and buy another one in two years. No big deal, no accountability. Since median home prices are still way out of whack with median income (more than 3.1 X annual gross), you need lots of buyers to sustain demand and home prices; this is where they come from. Low lifes - cheaters - lying on loan applications - then get a free lunch, none of that matters in two years.

Bad housing laws = housing market in the dumper = stock market in the dumper = banks in the dumper = economy in the dumper. Ain't gonna change unless the laws change. See ya then.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I would suspect that a majority of home owners even if they are under water will maintain their obligations to make their mortgage payments - it basically comes down to the issue of character. Besides most home owners relish that mortgage deduction to reduce their taxes. There are always some that will try and take advantage of situations but life always comes back around to even the score. For me the rational move has been to close my eyes and hold my nose while I have been buying this bottom building my stock foundation. If I get blowed out it's only my own fault but if I'm correct in my strategy then I'll be set for a very long time. As Richard Russell says; "The newspapers may be giving us a parade of bad news, but the stock market is beginning to march to a different drummer." The more you can build your assets, the more you can afford to risk if you have the fortitude and iron stomach for it.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Majority? I think not - two out of every three sales in Sacramento last month were foreclosures.

And remember, the moral "choice" as you put it, varies with loan type:

-subprimes, alt-A, option-ARMS; those are precisely the people who the loan modifications are aimed at - and the FHA provisions provide NO incentive for them to participate; sure - they'll take free money, but that won't prevent them from bailing eventually.

-traditional loans? probably many of these people will stay - but alot won't, especially if they have to move.....for example.....sure - gov workers sometimes get moving expenses if authorized - but as we know that's for the last 3 comp sales; not what your loan is. Just leave the keys in the mailbox. Or if they want to make a free $100-200 thousand; just don't pay, get booted, and come back in 2 years for alot less. Not much value in tax deductions for 2 years

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've had 54 dividends paid into the oceanic account this month so far for reinvestment - I may have another 6 or 8 remaining. This cycle will come around again in March'09 and the income should be a little greater because I now have more stock shares - if the market trades sideways I'll pick up another good block of shares. January doesn't present with such a heavy payout schedule but February is heavier than January. So I can't complain while I wait for the bull to return. I collect my GE dividend on 1/28. The markets P/E ratio is as low as it's been since the mid-1980s. The market's P/E has fallen all the way from 40 in 2008 to just 12 today.