Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

With having made 432 recent stock purchases I'm tempted to chase this momentum higher - but I've decided I'm just going to ride the next $400K higher until after the first of the year - yes I'm going to simply sit on my own lilly pad and let my dividends do the remaining heavy lifting. Yes, it's a sacrifice and I have no fear of the future but I'm going to rest for awhile and just watch the money pile up. I know that is contrary to my own strategy but I've built an excellent base and now we'll see if it works to my favor. I may not be able to rest But I'm going to try. It'll be fun making a few dollars for a change instead of being on the wrong side.

 

[JTH]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Stocks are cheap and I'm loving this market. My only regret is I don't have more money to buy more dogs.

Own AIG, AMD, & SIRI :cheesy: I hope this Bear market last all year long, so I can build up some wall flowers...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Http://www.marketwatch.com Hulbert 12/9/08 "Market bottom by year end."

"The price value ratio from Ford Equity Research: today this average stands at 0.68. That's the lowest since December 1974, when it got slightly lower, to 0.61. Other than December 1974 reading, the current level of this average is the lowest since 1970. The current level is well below the four-decade average, which atands at 1.17. This would certainly appear to be good news for the stock market."

Talk about volatility - from 1945 through 2007, the S&P 500 had 49 one-day moves of 4% or more, which is an average of less than one per year. This year we've had 28.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Everything around here is quiet - waiting for the holiday rally to kick in on December 26th. I am however possibly looking at my second ever +100K week. Currently up $80K so I need +$20K in the next two trading days. It's good to know that the Kress cycles will be in our favor after the first of the year.

"This time, unlike 2008, the three nearest major Kress cycles (including the 6-year and 10-year cycles) will be in harmony on the upside instead of at odds. And the key 6-year cycle bias in 2009 will be up instead of down."

http://safehaven.com/article-12045.htm

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Everything around here is quiet - waiting for the holiday rally to kick in on December 26th. I am however possibly looking at my second ever +100K week. Currently up $80K so I need +$20K in the next two trading days. It's good to know that the Kress cycles will be in our favor after the first of the year.

"This time, unlike 2008, the three nearest major Kress cycles (including the 6-year and 10-year cycles) will be in harmony on the upside instead of at odds. And the key 6-year cycle bias in 2009 will be up instead of down."

http://safehaven.com/article-12045.htm

Birch, Please post here to let us know when you make your first Billion $.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I gotta get up through the $2M mark first - that could come within the next several months. All I want now is a $100K week and then another one next week. A holiday rally should pump it up some - but all I'm currently buying is with my dividend reinvestments, otherwise I'm resting on my oceanic lilly pad until 2009.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I have to make $78K today to clear my second ever $100K week - otherwise it'll have to be next week. In 1982, off those lows, the DJIA made a 25% gain in 40 trading days - I was there and it was glorious. The Dow now would have to close at 9440 to be 25% higher than the Nov. 21st retest. I think it's coming. Reiterating previous comments from Maurice: "I remain very bullish and believe we are about to blast off higher, with a massive recovery move as the renegade rally continues to ignite the bulls." I still believe that this economy is stronger going into what likely will be called the 2008-2009 recession than it was on the cusp of the last brutal recession in the early 1980s.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The key is to already have great positions sitting in the portfolio when the next bull move comes. In all cases the market rebounded in as nearly a dramatic fashion as it fell. As for the average American investor, he'll be a deer in the headlights for years - afraid to pull that infamous trigger. It will be a while until greed gets comfortable again.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Now is the time to position your portfolio for the up coming rebound, whenever it might start. Wait for definitive proof that it is underway, or that the economy has recovered, and you could miss out on some of the market's biggest gains. Since 1926, stocks have climbed an average of nearly 46% in the 12 months following a bear market trough. In the long history of the economy in general and the markets in particular, optimism has been rewarded far more often than pessimism. The stock market is still the best long term investment strategy for a significant portion of one's assets.

It takes a lot of intestinal fortitude and patience to believe an upswing is ahead. Many of my stocks are poised for a resurgence. Dollar cost averaging in both my accounts has allowed me to leverage the market during this period of decline. The stage has now been set for investment gains that will make anything I've seen over the last 30 years pale by comparison - that's the hope anyway.

I did notice however, that in November, the supply of homes available for sale in 29 major metropolitan areas was down 3.6% from a month earlier. The November inventory was down about 10% from a year earlier. Hey, it's a start. A little more evidence that the economic climate is being transformed from bleak to bullish at one of the most rapid rates ever. I can smell it all over the place - the sweet smell of superlative bull manure.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"And since panics drive stock prices to irrational and unsustainable lows, when this panic ends we are likely to see a monster rally. After such a panic, this means radically reduced volatility and a major stock market rally. The sheer levels of fear driven by such volatility were so irrational on the downside that the subsequent upside will probably end up breaking a lot of records as well. Betting long like Birchtree during a stock panic is the ultimate high-potential contrarian play....the opportunities presented by this stock panic are vast beyond belief. Since there is blood flowing in the streets, and no one wants stocks, fortunes will be made by the brave few contrarians willing to buy when everyone else is selling."

http://safehaven.com/article-12064.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I will continue to ride the secular bull through these turbulent spells. A word from Richard Russell: "Markets bottoming and rising in the face of bearish news are often the most profitable ones." And another word from Purue Saxena: "We are in the very early stages of a new multi-year bull market. Looking for a very strong rebound (30%) over a short period of time, which will probably take the markets back to their 200-day moving averages." The extreme volatility is already abating, and after such a massive fear event a major rally to bleed off the fear is almost certain. Come on rally.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From Tobias Levkovich: "Our earnings yield gap is now approaching 5.14 standard deviations below the mean, suggesting that equity valuations are very attractive based on this metric indicating extraordinary risk aversion worse than that seen in 1974. Traditional metrics continue to argue for buying the equity market ranging from valuation to dividend yields being above T-bill yields along with a market that already seems to be discounting a 40% plus decline in EPS over the next several quarters."

http://www.smithbarney.com/pdf/pulse.pdf#search

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From Tobias Levkovich: "Our earnings yield gap is now approaching 5.14 standard deviations below the mean, suggesting that equity valuations are very attractive based on this metric indicating extraordinary risk aversion worse than that seen in 1974. Traditional metrics continue to argue for buying the equity market ranging from valuation to dividend yields being above T-bill yields along with a market that already seems to be discounting a 40% plus decline in EPS over the next several quarters."

Sounds like he is trying to sell someone something.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From Marty Chenard: "We are at an important inflection point because the VIX moved down to a point where it is now close testing its support level. A quick view of the chart shows a clear triangular pattern that has developed since the end of last October."

http://safehaven.com/article-12086.htm

 

[coolhand]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From Marty Chenard: "We are at an important inflection point because the VIX moved down to a point where it is now close testing its support level. A quick view of the chart shows a clear triangular pattern that has developed since the end of last October."

http://safehaven.com/article-12086.htm

Couple of traders on Trader's Talk are saying that VIX is poised to move down, which would seem to imply equities would move up. We seem to be slowly confirming an IT up trend.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I will continue to ride the secular bull through these turbulent spells. A word from Richard Russell: "Markets bottoming and rising in the face of bearish news are often the most profitable ones." And another word from Purue Saxena: "We are in the very early stages of a new multi-year bull market. Looking for a very strong rebound (30%) over a short period of time, which will probably take the markets back to their 200-day moving averages." The extreme volatility is already abating, and after such a massive fear event a major rally to bleed off the fear is almost certain. Come on rally.

Markets typically in past have hit a certain bottom then rally and then drop further than the first bottom. Just wait we are not at bottom yet. Look at past charts of earlier recessions and depressions.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Our Birchtree
1. Does not accept negative thought waves.
2. Has the "Holy Grail".
3. Is investing for his grandchildren, significantly lengthening his timeframe beyond most people here.

So even another year or two of a bear market is just fine but one of those megacyclelaybull surprises is expected tomorrow.
No offense, jk!

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Oh yeah? I'm investing for my great, great grandchildren!

 

[Gumby]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Markets typically in past have hit a certain bottom then rally and then drop further than the first bottom. Just wait we are not at bottom yet. Look at past charts of earlier recessions and depressions.

No doubt in my mind the bottom for this cycle is not in.:nuts:

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Markets typically in past have hit a certain bottom then rally and then drop further than the first bottom. Just wait we are not at bottom yet. Look at past charts of earlier recessions and depressions.

Why does the market have to follow the same pattern as it did in 1929 and 1987?

Are we forming a cup and handle right now? That sure could be a good trade.