Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

The time is right for the bull to step up - I want my four hundred points back before the close. Let me see if a ten year high on the MCOs means anything.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
I just noticed the LOWER the MARKETS get

THE LESS it needs to RISE

to make VERY SUBSTANTIAL GAINS


SO IF THIS EQUATION IS ACCURATE
THE BEST TIME TO GET IN (AND STAY IN) IS WHEN THE MARKETS
ARE VERY LOW. ​
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I gave back $71K yesterday and didn't cry about it - that's a heck of a sacrifice in my camp. The first two four hundred down days last week took back $124K and I only let out a whimper. I wish I could be bearish but it's not in my jeans apparently - I just keep on buying waiting for a better future. The best opportunities will come when people are most fearful and pessimistic. It will never feel comfortable to invest after a 46% decline. We made a nine hundred point turn around today - I'm hoping for a similar move tomorrow. Needless to say, bear markets can cause many people to leave the market. And once they do, they may take many years, if ever, to come back - me I just get deeper in with the despair and welcome the hit from that darn train. I know exactly what I want to buy. I must have certain masochistic tendencies to absorb the level of pain I experience but I've been in the dungeon many times and always escape. That reminds me we may see escape velocity tomorrow. The volume is coming.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain said:
Birch,
I just noticed the LOWER the MARKETS get​

THE LESS it needs to RISE ​

to make VERY SUBSTANTIAL GAINS​


SO IF THIS EQUATION IS ACCURATE
THE BEST TIME TO GET IN (AND STAY IN) IS WHEN THE MARKETS

ARE VERY LOW. ​
Click to expand...

Hell yeah...these low levels ROCK! Look for 600-720 next year to really be rockin!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain said:
Birch,
I just noticed the LOWER the MARKETS get​

THE LESS it needs to RISE ​

to make VERY SUBSTANTIAL GAINS​


SO IF THIS EQUATION IS ACCURATE
THE BEST TIME TO GET IN (AND STAY IN) IS WHEN THE MARKETS

ARE VERY LOW. ​
Click to expand...

The REVERSE of THIS is JUST THE OPPOSITE.

Today the FALL is substantially lower - yet the percentage drop is not nearly as deep.

Corepuncher, I would not doubt it will fall to 700 but if it hits 600 I will likely go back in immediately.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

I'm back on your train. Could we please get this train moving? By now we all know your the lead engineer. Let's move!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The NYSE advance-decline line remains above its July 2006 low. Contrast that to the DJIA trading just above 8800 today versus roughly 10,700 in July 2006. Charet watchers call that a bullish divergence. The indicator does not agree with the current declining trend in prices. I'll settle for an unchanged market today if I can get it - currently down 155 points.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Good morning Birch, I decided to try and get AA at 10. Just missed it a couple of times. I am looking at 3 stocks. GE, MO, AA.

Dave at VA
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

My last two purchases on AA were at $10.22 and $9.37. They will pay that over 6% dividend on 11/28. Both GE and Altria are paying over 7% - these are great yields for the brave of heart.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

We have a 4 year window so I am trying to buy one each month and then after establishing 3 positions add to the lowest with 300 each month. Thanks Birch.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Of course they can always reduce or suspend the dividend - as some of my holdings have already done. GE has publicly stated their dividend is safe through 2009 - they are just being careful. I personally think this economy is headed for a rather quick rebound and most dividends are safe and eventually will be increased. Some of these companies are trading with PEs that are lower than their dividend yields - all it takes is courage to throw money done the well.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

On October 28th the Dow was up 889 or 10.9% until that big gain the Dow had been up or seen six one-day advances of 10% or more, half of them in the 1930s. Two occurred earlt in new bull markets, helping mark the end of long declines. But four - including the 936 point gain or 11.1% surge on October 13th, were wiped away by later declines, and proved to be temporary rallies in longer term bear markets. Is this time different? I think so.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
On October 28th the Dow was up 889 or 10.9% until that big gain the Dow had been up or seen six one-day advances of 10% or more, half of them in the 1930s. Two occurred earlt in new bull markets, helping mark the end of long declines. But four - including the 936 point gain or 11.1% surge on October 13th, were wiped away by later declines, and proved to be temporary rallies in longer term bear markets. Is this time different? I think so.
Click to expand...

I hope your right, Birch.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Of course they can always reduce or suspend the dividend - as some of my holdings have already done. GE has publicly stated their dividend is safe through 2009 - they are just being careful. I personally think this economy is headed for a rather quick rebound and most dividends are safe and eventually will be increased. Some of these companies are trading with PEs that are lower than their dividend yields - all it takes is courage to throw money done the well.
Click to expand...

Birch,

I understand that today's market prices will probably seem like bargains 3 to 5 years from now. But what makes you think that the economy is headed for such a quick turnaround - I see no indication whatsoever from any of the current world financial/economic or sentiment data.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

KevinD said:
Birch - How do you pick your dividend paying stocks?

I did a Google search and came up with this page.


http://www.winninginvesting.com/picking_dividend_stocks.htm

Anybody ever use MSN Money Screener?
Click to expand...

I'm not Birch, but I found that the strategy I used was a quasi Dogs of the Dow, plus research on high divvie stocks and how they paid historically. It took about a year and a half to settle on what stocks I have in my ROTH's now, but I also have a list of about 10 to 12 stocks, my wannabes (updated continually), that are next on my list, if I want to add or swap out a stock.

I mainly go for Divvies and reinvest them. I used a screener, but also just googled high Divvy stocks and researched them. You have to stay on top of your research.

CB
 
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