Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks Rod; looks like most of the top contenders are in G if I understand it correctly!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've been genuinely intrigued by the quick rush of the NYSE breadth MCO to its' highest value in three years at 100 or perhaps it's ten years. Moving to new multi-year MCO highs is nothing to be complacent about. After the 10% down it remains at +46.36 and is holding at snapback support on the declining tops line that has been controling the current trend. If we can hold the NYSE breadth MCO above the zero line for a few weeks that will give the NYSE breadth MCSUM time to reach the -500 level - it is currently at -1134.26 and approaching gap resistance which was created by all the panic selling on October 10th. I think we may have a shot for this rally to continue on bad news. Sentiment is in the bulls favor and now is the time to step up - I'm doing my best to support my hoofed friends by my own buying. I'm also having dinner out tonight to help the economy.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
The price on the pump is $1.95 and I'm getting items for $100 less than they would have been a year prior.

Man this Recession has been wonderfull for the gainfully employed and those who didn't have debt to begin with. Now more than ever I'm honestly thinking about getting some big tanks and filling them up to have on hand for later on.

Never in my wildest dreams did I think gas would go under $2 dollars and it will take years to switch over to something else. This really makes no since to me at all and I bet when it goes back up it will be back over $4 dollars within a matter of months. It's weird because if you have money it's a time of celebration.

Well hope you had a good meal. We went to a Thai Resturant and then I went to the lobby of a local hospital and downloaded some stuff on their high speed wireless connection.

Later dude :cool:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hedge funds are sitting on a record amount of cash, estimated at $400 billion. That will buy a lot of stock when they determine the time is right. Jeremy Siegel puts fair value of the SPX at 1380, which is about 50% above the current level. I think I'll buy some ANN today.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Hedge funds are sitting on a record amount of cash, estimated at $400 billion. That will buy a lot of stock when they determine the time is right. Jeremy Siegel puts fair value of the SPX at 1380, which is about 50% above the current level. I think I'll buy some ANN today.
Click to expand...

Atta boy, Birch, keep buying. You're keeping the entire economy from going completely under. :)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I know this sounds redundant but I just completed another 12 purchases of stock for a grand total so far on this bottom of 312. The negative sentiment is as bearish as December, 1994 just before the 1990s bull market was about to accelerate to the upside in a big way.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Your thread seems to go back only as far as 2005 and I was wondering if you were saying the same thing on July 2, 2001 when the market had more to go down? Do you recall?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

In 2001 I was probably just riding the train buying the dips when able. I do remember being an aggressive buyer at the July '02 lows and into the October '02 lows and then again at the March '03 lows. I rode the upside in 03,04,05,06,07, and have again been an aggressive buyer in '08. But I also gave up over $600K in devaluation this year by maintaining my buy and hold strategy - now all my assets are still intact and we'll see if the next bull will make me whole and better. I've been concentrating on buying income just in case we don't rebound quickly using dividend reinvestment to redeem the portfolio.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The Breadth Summation index (BSI) is slowly improving but must climb out of the bearish zone decisively to mark a good low and we are not there yet. The Weekly BSI is made up of a dozen Breadth and Momentum indicators and is a good measure of oversold and overbought conditions. It is interpreted Bullish when turning up from low levels, and Bearish when turning down from high levels."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-11784.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Good afternoon Birch, I am investing 300 dollars a month for my son. I wonder what you would recommend for both safety and divi at 300 a month for the next 4 years. He is 18 and I am trying to set up a nestegg for him when he graduates college. Any ideas would be appreciated.

Thanks, Dave at VA
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I don't think you could go wrong with GE at these levels under $17.00 and with a dividend close to 7%. They will pay their next dividend 1/26/09. I just picked up 11 shares at $18.44 yielding 6.38% on 10/28. This stock fits well in a Roth IRA account if that is what you have planned. At some point in the future GE will probably head back to $80 - but if it takes five years I'll be happy with that time frame. 202 S&P 500 companies have initiated or raised dividends 218 times this year. In 2007, there were 298 dividend increases or initiations.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I don't think you could go wrong with GE at these levels under $17.00 and with a dividend close to 7%. They will pay their next dividend 1/26/09. I just picked up 11 shares at $18.44 yielding 6.38% on 10/28. This stock fits well in a Roth IRA account if that is what you have planned. At some point in the future GE will probably head back to $80 - but if it takes five years I'll be happy with that time frame. 202 S&P 500 companies have initiated or raised dividends 218 times this year. In 2007, there were 298 dividend increases or initiations.
Click to expand...
Hey Birch,

I thought long and hard about GE a couple of weeks ago (it was hovering around 19), so under $17 looks good indeed.

That being said, my hesitation is that GE has a financing component and as such they are involved in the bad loans/sub-prime mess. Does this make you a bit hesitant? GMAC has many of the same issues, that's not helping GM (though they have much bigger problems than GE). While I haven't looked ath their dividends (I will shortly), other blue chips seem a bit more appealing, such as DOW or AA. Your thoughts?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I own both Dow and AA - GE announced today that they qualify for help under TARP so that should relieve some pressure. I'd like to get a price under $17 in January - today they traded as low as $16.16 and I may DCA my next position at this level. My most recent DCA purchase was at $20.49 so I'm heading in the right direction.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I don't think you could go wrong with GE at these levels under $17.00 and with a dividend close to 7%. They will pay their next dividend 1/26/09. I just picked up 11 shares at $18.44 yielding 6.38% on 10/28. This stock fits well in a Roth IRA account if that is what you have planned. At some point in the future GE will probably head back to $80 - but if it takes five years I'll be happy with that time frame.
Click to expand...

Do you know why GE dropped 4% this morning to $15.60 ?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Greg said:
Do you know why GE dropped 4% this morning to $15.60 ?
Click to expand...

From Briefing.com: The industrials sector is being hit by continued weakness in shares of General Electric (GE 15.63, -0.66). Shares of GE have fallen to their lowest point in over a decade as concerns mount that weakness in its finance unit and a global economic slowdown will adversely impact the rest of its business.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

In this market environment there may not be a rational reason - but I have a DCA position for more on my list. I will also pick up some CNH.
 
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