Birchtree's Account Talk

[weatherweenie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

In 350Z's thread you made a comment about 7.5% capital gains...could you elaborate? I'm not understanding the reference since I know capital gains as 39.4%.

I think he's referencing McCain's pledge to cut the capital gains tax to 7.5%

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Gents,

Currently the capital gains tax on stock held for one year and then sold is 15% - I have a $140K profit that I will have to pay that tax on unless I can offset those gains with some of my undeclared losses - which I may or may not do. McCain is recommending a capital gains tax for 2009 of 7.5% which would be good in my circumstances. Dividends would also be taxed at a lower rate than the current 15%. I'm still building my base this morning with another ten stock purchases for a total now on this bottom of 228 - and by the way they are starting to get somewhat expensive compared to the October 10th bottom. Buy'em and weep is what I say because they will only cost more next week. The market is in the process of bottoming and investors should be looking to invest in or add to equity holdings. The best way to take advantage of the markets today is to dollar cost average your way back into the markets - do as I do and you will celebrate. I don't pay much attention to the young man driving the Datsun B210 truck because of the puerile factor.

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Gents,

Currently the capital gains tax on stock held for one year and then sold is 15% - I have a $140K profit that I will have to pay that tax on unless I can offset those gains with some of my undeclared losses - which I may or may not do. McCain is recommending a capital gains tax for 2009 of 7.5% which would be good in my circumstances. Dividends would also be taxed at a lower rate than the current 15%. I'm still building my base this morning with another ten stock purchases for a total now on this bottom of 228 - and by the way they are starting to get somewhat expensive compared to the October 10th bottom. Buy'em and weep is what I say because they will only cost more next week. The market is in the process of bottoming and investors should be looking to invest in or add to equity holdings. The best way to take advantage of the markets today is to dollar cost average your way back into the markets - do as I do and you will celebrate. I don't pay much attention to the young man driving the Datsun B210 truck because of the puerile factor.

Thanks, for the clarification.

By the way, I love my Dow buy, actually it was for my wife. She is a B&H person like yourself!!!!! In @23.17 today @26.81! Thanks for your vote of confidence....

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

In 350Z's thread you made a comment about 7.5% capital gains...could you elaborate? I'm not understanding the reference since I know capital gains as 39.4%.

I think the 39.4% might be your tax bracket for income tax AND short term capital gains, (FOREX trading? ) trades held less than 1 yr, which are taxed/considered as income.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I followed my own strategy rules and that is never, ever, let them see you cut and run. Next month I have 27 or more dividend plays hitting my account for reinvestment and in December there are even more - autopilot is on and ready to go. If the markert trends sideways I'm prepared and if we rocket up I'll ride the thunder. There will always be a blind side and I prepared for it by having a substantial cash reserve which I'm now using to get these golden prices I'm buying. All my hard earned assets are still intact and now we'll see if they will help me. I bet this will be a ride of my life time.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The more important question to ask me is what did I do with that $140K profit and the money used to make those gains - well I bought 45 different toxic financial stocks and am now continuing to DCA into some of those purchases. They essentially are all mostly higher in price and possibly going much higher over the next several years and that was the objective - not to make money today but down the road and use the high dividend yields to reinvest. Dividend reinvestment is the redeemer of many a mistake.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just kissed off my last ten purchases for the day for a total on this bottom of 238. We'll see what further damage I can do next week - it'll be very interesting. I'm hoping for a slow progressive upside with not much looking back.

 

[ATCJeff]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just kissed off my last ten purchases for the day for a total on this bottom of 238. We'll see what further damage I can do next week - it'll be very interesting. I'm hoping for a slow progressive upside with not much looking back.

I'm starting to think we may test the 1160 range by the end of the year.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'd prefer 1437 for further fun times. As I've said previously the biggest surprise for the majority would be for a day to day advance in the face of all the gloom and doom. This market has really been flushed out and only the loyal will be buying for the next three months, that's just what the bull wants. This market tried unrelentlessly to turn me into burnt toast and has so far failed - I can smell it very faintly but it's there. A BigMac win will be huge for the market - perhaps a thousand point or better gain.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I followed my own strategy rules and that is never, ever, let them see you cut and run. Next month I have 27 or more dividend plays hitting my account for reinvestment and in December there are even more - autopilot is on and ready to go. If the markert trends sideways I'm prepared and if we rocket up I'll ride the thunder. There will always be a blind side and I prepared for it by having a substantial cash reserve which I'm now using to get these golden prices I'm buying. All my hard earned assets are still intact and now we'll see if they will help me. I bet this will be a ride of my life time.

Being that this is turning out to be the worst year in the last 75, the odds are very much in your favor, but you rode the worst year in 75 down as well.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

And a bumpy ride down it was - but I did take out $140K profit and turned right around and put it all back in the financial sector - we'll have to wait to see if that was prescient or not. We could have another blast off in the last hour today. I'll miss it because I'm going to go buy a camellia plant for winter color.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

And a bumpy ride down it was - but I did take out $140K profit and turned right around and put it all back in the financial sector - we'll have to wait to see if that was prescient or not. We could have another blast off in the last hour today. I'll miss it because I'm going to go buy a camellia plant for winter color.

Bottom line of statements is "Total Equity" = after all fees, comissions, daily face value of all assests. So if you had ~$1,000,000 at the beginning of the year, your up $140k or 14%.

I think what you probably did was dollar cost down your cost basis. Which is what you were doing in your TSP.

And now BurntAnkle is on reminding us of the 'severe economic stress we are now under', but market seems to be non-plussed

 

[turbo23dog]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

On CNBC about 30 minutes ago, one of the talking heads said the bottom has been reached and hang on the bulls are coming.

Does it feel like we're going to be at least less volatile and perhaps sideways for a while?

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

On CNBC about 30 minutes ago, one of the talking heads said the bottom has been reached and hang on the bulls are coming.

Does it feel like we're going to be at least less volatile and perhaps sideways for a while?

That 10% up day on tuesday the 28th looks awfully thin to try to build on. My guess is that we need to drop back to at least half of that day to build a good base. Retrace to about 850 on S&P.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey anybody seen the cooler around lately?

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey anybody seen the cooler around lately?

Yep - It's a couple of threads over, and they are all drinking some red stuff.... ha!

Robo

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The last I heard the "Cooler" was on his way to Manassas, Virginia.

"It is times like these that an investors self proclaimed, contrarian principles are truly tested. It is when everyone is panicky, selling and running for the hills and lilly pads that it is hard to buy in true contrarian style. We believe this is why only a few brave investors are able to make fortunes in these markets. Who is buying these stocks? The same folks who keep getting richer as they pursue the opportunities created by the panic selling."

http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/invscore/2008/1031.html

 

[Geaux4it]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The last I heard the "Cooler" was on his way to Manassas, Virginia.

"It is times like these that an investors self proclaimed, contrarian principles are truly tested. It is when everyone is panicky, selling and running for the hills and lilly pads that it is hard to buy in true contrarian style. We believe this is why only a few brave investors are able to make fortunes in these markets. Who is buying these stocks? The same folks who keep getting richer as they pursue the opportunities created by the panic selling."

http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/invscore/2008/1031.html

On the other hand, the buyers could be those who went to cash and are now buying low having avoided a ~40% + loss.

Geaux

View attachment 4992

 

[Silverbird]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Do the Funky Chicken!!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If you're a long-term investor like I am and you can actually withstand the volatility, you should be thinking about equities in a more serious way. Don't forget that the worst month of a bear market precedes the best month of a bull market. You get out at the bottom and you will miss the upswing. I actually made close to over $200K last week. And if you're going to listen to people for investment advice, don't listen to the hysterics and the amateurs, turn to the seasoned, thoughtful, knowledgeable men and women who have a view of how things unfold and a hopefulness toward the future. In all probability the stock market is wrong as it always has been wrong in its major judgments of the future. In fact, the market is probably wrong again in its obsession over whether this decline will turn into a cataclysmic collapse.

Money market fund assets totaled $3.4 trillion as of Sept. 30, versus $13.3 trillion of stock market valuation, leaving the ratio of liquidity to market value at a near record 25%. That's comparable to the ratio in the early 1080s, when money funds yielded double digits. According to Ned Davis Research, since late 1980, the market almost always rises at least 12% whenever money fund balances reach about 11% of market value.

And we all know that as normally happens, the market tends to turn up in the middle of a reces