Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mostly 100 shares and some as much as 300 shares and then some of only 50 shares - it varies according to my existing positions and how low the stock is trading. I'm really buying income through dollar cost averaging - I'm not concerned about capital gains at this point I only want income from dividends that will be reinvested as long as it takes. Who knows how long it will take to reach 14,164 again or even 17,500. I'm a long term player taking opportunity of these golden prices. It's basically a very simple strategy - all it takes for completion is money and courage. I do have another 40 on my list but they may have to wait unless I break another CD. If the market rockets from here I may do some selective selling as a sacrifice to raise further cash to complete my buying program but I'm really in no great hurry - it'll be a long way to the top again and I have to be careful not to generate more profits.

 

[Jackbnimble]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If anyone reads the C fund thread you will know what I'm talking about. Time to jump in.

This situation does remind me of the Bill Clinton days. Everytime he sat at his desk he would feel a cold nose in his crotch - but he never knew if it was Buddy or Monica.

Watch the NYSE lead us to the promised land today.

I disagree, Buddy had better breath, thats how he knew who it was...

Birch, I am a casual poster but a fan of your posts and your thread here. I am a permabull also. Thanks for the education and the entertainment you and the rest of the posters on your thread provide.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We do our best - now about that dog playing in traffic. Give me a three hundred point gain today - please. Tomorrow I will open the barn doors and let out some of that sweet smelling superlative bull manure and watch it make things green.

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sorry Birchtree - double post!

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We do our best - now about that dog playing in traffic. Give me a three hundred point gain today - please. Tomorrow I will open the barn doors and let out some of that sweet smelling superlative bull manure and watch it make things green.

You have all heard the term "oversold" and this is where we are. In fact, the SPX is more than 25% below its 50-day moving average and this has only occurred some six times in history, with most of those times during the great depression. All of these extremely oversold events were followed by substantial advances.

http://timing.typepad.com/

Go Birchtree!

Yep - I all ready voted and I even told my Mother who I voted for.....

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

There is no doubt short covering has occurred, along with my bottom fishing. But it is future volume that will tell us if buyers are now willing to take a stake here and support these levels. The market as a whole is priced for good long term returns, but it could end up priced for great returns down the road. Meanwhile, certain sectors within the market are priced for great returns already. It looks like today will be a chase'em day and that is the easier way to buy because I don't mind overpaying - three months from now the market will look completely different. Buy'em now because they will only cost even more later. Believe it or not, the Dow is trading at 12-year lows.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

There is no doubt short covering has occurred, along with my bottom fishing. But it is future volume that will tell us if buyers are now willing to take a stake here and support these levels. The market as a whole is priced for good long term returns, but it could end up priced for great returns down the road. Meanwhile, certain sectors within the market are priced for great returns already. It looks like today will be a chase'em day and that is the easier way to buy because I don't mind overpaying - three months from now the market will look completely different. Buy'em now because they will only cost even more later. Believe it or not, the Dow is trading at 12-year lows.

About 78 min from now, we will REALLY know what kind of day it will be. Could be once heck of a rally...+10% yet again. If GDP is very low, could also be -10% ! I'm going to sell today if hard rally, with a good likelihood of buying lower next week.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

About 78 min from now, we will REALLY know what kind of day it will be. Could be once heck of a rally...+10% yet again. If GDP is very low, could also be -10% ! I'm going to sell today if hard rally, with a good likelihood of buying lower next week.

CP, Good strategy. I am feeling the urge to go back to G even with my negative numbers. In 78 minutes we might see which way the market would like to go but the real market will not show itself until 4:00pm EST. Yesterday wasn't a huge rally day but the market was moving in a good positive direction. Then at 4 the sellers showed up and the DOW and S&P started to tank. GRRR!! Since the FRTIB will not give us additional IFT's it would be nice if they would move the trade time closer to 4:00pm EST. Yeah! Right!!

 

[justbizness45]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

CP, 3rd quarter GDP number is not good. Shrank .3%. Stand by for the latter of your prediction. JMO.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

CP, 3rd quarter GDP number is not good. Shrank .3%. Stand by for the latter of your prediction. JMO.

That was a "advanced number" and subject to revision (most likely worse)

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

CP, Good strategy. I am feeling the urge to go back to G even with my negative numbers. In 78 minutes we might see which way the market would like to go but the real market will not show itself until 4:00pm EST. Yesterday wasn't a huge rally day but the market was moving in a good positive direction. Then at 4 the sellers showed up and the DOW and S&P started to tank. GRRR!! Since the FRTIB will not give us additional IFT's it would be nice if they would move the trade time closer to 4:00pm EST. Yeah! Right!!

Art Cashen gave a reasonable explanation about why the market took
a dive before closing and it was all about GE. He found it rediculous &
our futures look good, maybe because they figured that out over night.
He also said that this rally might have legs, but didn't sound too convinced
about it. I'm leaning towards a sell and wait for a lower entry point after the election.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

No G for me - I've got some buying to do before pricing escapes. GDP was weak only because of the hurricane we experienced not at all related to the credit crisis. Where is that darn recession? Can we get another 900 point head banger today - you bet.

 

[DCguy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Fed said it will provide up to $30 billion to each of the central banks. It is the latest in a series of "swap" arrangements where the Fed provides dollars in exchange for reserves of the other nations' currencies.

Markets also took heart from an announcement that the Fed would temporarily supply new lines of credit worth up to $30 billion to the central banks of South Korea, Brazil, Mexico and Singapore to help relieve the global credit crisis.

Good for I, bad for C and S

 

[Gumby]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

GDP was weak only because of the hurricane we experienced not at all related to the credit crisis.

Has the credit crisis not hit yet? The REAL numbers for the GDP are not out and won't be until way after the election.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I know Sniffer is tired of hearing it but I just finished burning another 10 stock purchases for a cumulative total of 208 around this historic bottom. They cost more today and hopefully will cost more tomorrow. Going fishin again to see how much more damage I can do.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The stocks are really biting today and I just bagged my limit for today with another 10 catch - leaves me with a bunch at 218. If we rally hard into the close I'll be singing with Ferdinand "We're in the money".

 

[love-to-bike]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

I know you're a fan of dry bulk stocks, I've got me feet in a few myself. Ran across this article, kinda basic info but it is useful:
http://www.bullishbankers.com/whats-next-for-the-bulk-shippers/

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A very nice article - thanx. We need more good stuff like that around my thread. I actually own three from the list and have been DCAing into them recently.

"Will the Fed's latest efforts at reflating the financial market succeed? If history is any guide then it should eventually stabilize the stock market and allow the newly formed 6-year cycle along with the peaking 10-year cycle to work its magic in 2009 for one final cyclical bull market before the hard down phase if the Kress 40-year and 60-year cycles commences in 2010."

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2008/1027.html

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

In 350Z's thread you made a comment about 7.5% capital gains...could you elaborate? I'm not understanding the reference since I know capital gains as 39.4%.

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

In 350Z's thread you made a comment about 7.5% capital gains...could you elaborate? I'm not understanding the reference since I know capital gains as 39.4%.

I think what he's saying is that he's got to pay tax on 7.5% ytd gains. Despite an obvious bear market, despite getting killed in his TSP, despite getting raped in FNM/FRE/AIG/GE and who knows what else, he has somehow managed to have a gain of 7.5%?

Were you short at some point Birch? Are permabulls allowed to short?