Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Greg,

The credit system is choking on mandated subprimers walking away from responsibility. The solution, should Nobama get elected, is to increase the amounts of the welfare checks and unemployment checks. Then the mortgage payments can be made and we all return to looking at increased taxes to cover these good neighbors. Affirmative action in home ownership is the route cause of this dilemma - the at risk folks were simply not qualified and now the nation pays the price. We see the same ingredients at work in our education system. That's why we have school report cards - been there done that with school busing. You simply can't trust any Donkey to do the right thing - I started with yellow back Jimmy Carter and it hasn't changed.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I feel we will have an emotional rebound, panic buying if you will...once the FED's backstop interbank lending.

Then, it will sink in...we are headed for a deep recession. Jobs number last month was horrible...and that was BEFORE the credit markets froze and stock markets went down.

My forecast is for a big bump up, maybe 1000-1100 on the S&P, then, we go back down and MAYBE retest the lows...but at least 900 or so. As long as the dollar remains strong, oil will remain low and that is a big plus. I'll be watching Gold as well to make sure it doesn't get out of hand...i surely doubt it won't given we are in a deflationary period.

 

[TradingJoe]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I feel we will have an emotional rebound, panic buying if you will...once the FED's backstop interbank lending.

Then, it will sink in...we are headed for a deep recession. Jobs number last month was horrible...and that was BEFORE the credit markets froze and stock markets went down.

My forecast is for a big bump up, maybe 1000-1100 on the S&P, then, we go back down and MAYBE retest the lows...but at least 900 or so. As long as the dollar remains strong, oil will remain low and that is a big plus. I'll be watching Gold as well to make sure it doesn't get out of hand...i surely doubt it won't given we are in a deflationary period.

Hope you're right.:worried:

 

[KevinD]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I feel we will have an emotional rebound, panic buying if you will...once the FED's backstop interbank lending.

Then, it will sink in...we are headed for a deep recession. Jobs number last month was horrible...and that was BEFORE the credit markets froze and stock markets went down.

My forecast is for a big bump up, maybe 1000-1100 on the S&P, then, we go back down and MAYBE retest the lows...but at least 900 or so. As long as the dollar remains strong, oil will remain low and that is a big plus. I'll be watching Gold as well to make sure it doesn't get out of hand...i surely doubt it won't given we are in a deflationary period.

Keep punchin' the core...or something like that. :nuts:































Sorry. I've had a few...

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This market has been quite the dumper, eh. Maybe we can all squeal for a Mulligan… Just read some commenters at FedSmith’s blog squealing like pigs for gubmint guarantee of returns. Yuk, yuk. Had to lob a very nice comment in there myself about to poor sod who figured his L-2040 style allocation was right for him when he is retiring in three months. Kinda feel sorry for him.

Anyway, I lucked out. I started reading more financial books and caught Ric Edelman on the radio. Picked up his ‘The Lies About Money’, did the twenty question thang. Then I went to his website and matched with the Washington LC Portfolio. When I looked at it I had to brain strain it to the TSP funds. My guess was 25% G, 20% F, 25% C, 20% S, and 10% I. Sure seemed way over cautious for the way I do my TSP – but, decided to give the math man genius a try.

Now, looking at it I know I couldn’t be more wrong. I think it should have been 5% G. The F Fund maybe 20%, 45% C, 20% S, 10% I. I really don’t know how to split his bond and hedge groups.

Yippie for adult libations or whatever blew my reading comprehension.

Regardless, the last month and a half has taken even that conservative allocation down just over 15%. Just to think, till that point I was down just 7% over this ugly year.

Just upped my contributions though. I was going to wait till O’ attempted to clobber my income stream and give him a smackdown with legal tax avoidance. Just couldn’t wait. I’ll survive his four to eight years of incompetence.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Your contribution at these prices will redeem any mistakes that have been made - man made or market made. With my outside account I get paid while I wait in the buy and hold mode picking up shares as my dividends are paid. My TSP account has a similar strategy - only my contribution acts like my dividends buying more shares at these lower prices. I've been down this road before with the same strategy during the last bear market. Came out smelling like a rose when I hit Feb'04. I have my sincere doubts whether the S fund will outperform during this cycle. I'm getting a little ahead of myself recognizing that we may not actually bottom for a few more days. Perhaps Corepuncher will prove correct and we get an emotional relief rally that rocks the socks and then decides not to retest - can you feel the rumble of those Nasa engines. They're shaken the marmalade out of me.

 

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Perhaps Corepuncher will prove correct and we get an emotional relief rally that rocks the socks and then decides not to retest - can you feel the rumble of those Nasa engines. They're shaken the marmalade out of me.

Birchie, have to hand it to you, your way with words gets a chuckle from me most of the time, even when I totally beg to differ with what you actually said.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Now about that girl friend - have you any reliable information. Most muslim men can have up to six wives.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

To me, the funniest thing about this mess is the government action.

All these folks squealing for government intervention, largess, and brilliance again see it in action. Too ignorant, too slow, and too expensive.

Even before the government can get their memos in order the game will be over. Where are they going to blow the $700 Billion? Maybe a bridge from Seattle to Anchorage.


*** And, obviously I am a government employee!!!!

 

[KevinD]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

*** And, obviously I am a government employee!!!!

Aren't we all... :cheesy:

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I am relaxing by watching two hours of 'Countdown to Armageddon' on the History Channel.

That should be uplifting, eh...

KevinD,
I figured that folks my take my comments of 'Gubmint in Action' the wrong way. Maybe the right way. Maybe the One's Way.

Right now God is smiting lots of folks - gotta go!!!

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

can you feel the rumble of those Nasa engines. They're shaken the marmalade out of me.

DOW rallied 800 pts in a half hour last Friday. Just think what will happen once the credit markets unfreeze. I'm thinking we'll have 1 or 2 days with 10%+ rallies.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Oh, you may be right. On Friday it moved 900 points from a lower reading up to a positive reading just before the 128 point give back. I need to make an adjustment on the volume figures I previously posted - the 11.16 billion shares was actually total trading volume for the week but did hit a record.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've been as busy as a bee putting some final touches on my buy list - just in case I make a few purchases tomorrow. Out of 9,194 stocks tracked by Standard & Poor's Compustat research service, 3,518 are now trading at less than eight times their earnings over the past year - or at levels less than half the long term average valuation of the stock market as a whole. Those numbers testify to the wholesale destruction of the stock market's faith in the future. Didn't the market predict 11 of the last five recessions? If you are feeling numb that is natural - ignore the gut and step up, this is a great opportunity to go fish.

 

[XL-entLady]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Didn't the market predict 11 of the last five recessions?

Too funny, Birch!

Good luck! I'll watch in awe.

Lady

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just bought 15 adorable wall flowers and they were all so appreciative. I plan to go in a little later today again if the situation settles.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I was just remembering the day the market gave up 777 points and I gave up $119K on that eventful day - perhaps today I'll get some comeuppance because the asset base is working hard.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just bought another twelve stocks - I will be buying all this week because if I don't get what I want this week they will cost even more next week. And a month from now all prices will be up substantially. I'll chase this puppy all the way to Atlanta.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just bought another twelve stocks - I will be buying all this week because if I don't get what I want this week they will cost even more next week. And a month from now all prices will be up substantially. I'll chase this puppy all the way to Atlanta.

You should wait on buying. The S&P will be down below 400 by July 4th 09.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

In order to trade at a Graham P/E as bad as the 1982 low (6.6), the S&P 500 would have to fall to roughly 400, more than a 50% slide from where it is today. A similar drop in the Dow would hit bottom somewhere around 4000. A Graham P/E of 10 would take the Dow to 6000. Panic is not a strategy I follow.