Birchtree's Account Talk

[ATCJeff]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Corporate insiders are still bullish and buying their company stock, as a matter of fact, they've been buying all through 2008. They are as bullish now as they were at the July lows. Prior to the July lows, the last time corporate insiders were this bullish was near the end of the 2000-2002 bear market. This may only be predictive at the twelve month horizon. This encourages me to keep on buying at these delicious prices. The bear market of 2000-2002 ended after a long term positive divergence indicating slowing selling momentum and the same scenerio is in place now. There is a long term positive divergence on the MACD.

Not so fast Birch....

When the market peaked in the third quarter of 2007, almost $172 billion in shares were repurchased making to the one-year record of $589 billion in shares repurchased in 2007, with financial companies being the biggest contributor, accounting for 20 per cent of the buybacks in 2007.
In the first quarter buybacks were $113.90 billion and fell to less than $100 billion in the second quarter. This graph is likely to get worse in the third quarter.

http://www.domain-b.com/companies/companies_m/Microsoft/20080923_microsoft.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7821359

 

[ATCJeff]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You might be able to pick your price tomorrow. This market is going down another 700 points tomorrow. That bailout was a joke !!! It won't happen and imagine Paulson actually united Dems & Repubs something we have not seen in a long time.

The market may actually be up 700 points; Buffett is throwing $5 billion at GS and JC Flowers is buying a small bank - that demonstrates recognition of value in the financials. I'll take it either way. Anything I buy now will be much higher a year or three from now.

I'll go with Braveheart. 5 billion dollars by Warren Buffett sounds good but does nothing for this market. Wait til the bipartisan bickering kicks in tomorrow. The American public may very well turn on this so called bailout. Down we go....

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The market may actually be up 700 points; Buffett is throwing $5 billion at GS and JC Flowers is buying a small bank - that demonstrates recognition of value in the financials. I'll take it either way. Anything I buy now will be much higher a year or three from now.

Buffet's actions are not a good short term barometer because he plays the long term and doesn't care if we go down another 10% over the next few months.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Buffet's actions are not a good short term barometer because he plays the long term and doesn't care if we go down another 10% over the next few months.

Very true, but it shows the even the most critical investor sees value in a financial and that is a good sign.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Chasing prices now, bought today: CNH, BJS, TCB, VHI, BW, BK. Saving a little powder for later.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Chasing prices now,

I was hoping today would be a nice drop, but at least I'm able to get in at a price cheaper than Friday's close. I was shaking in my boots while sitting in the G Fund. I felt like I was playing with fire, sitting outside this potential blast-off.

 

[presskh]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Very true, but it shows the even the most critical investor sees value in a financial and that is a good sign.

He may see value - but you and I won't get the same "value" if we invested in GS, in terms of risk/reward potential. See this:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/080924/10439109.html?.v=2

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'll stick with my BK - Bank of New York Mellon and will DCA into it when the opportunity arrives. I've been buying all the way down and now is not the time to cut and run and change strategy. But all these shares I'm accumulating sure are a cross to bear - but it's a burden I enjoy because I'm a lover of pain. Someday soon I will be redeemed.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Saving a little powder for later.

I could either send a crisp $100 dollar bill for you to roll up

or an Ivory Straw with multiple Gold Bands....


BUT LET'S WAIT FOR A "SUPER RALLY" TO KICK IN

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I could either send a crisp $100 dollar bill for you to roll up

or an Ivory Straw with multiple Gold Bands....

Oh, that's what that sniffing noise is!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I had a response that reminded me of a scene from "Deep Throat" but I changed my mind - I don't want more members, especially new ones, to think I'm overly perverted. But it was definitely a classic.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"It's been almost 21 years since the current level of fear prevailed in U.S. financial markets - that was right after the 1987 crash when stocks plummeted 23% in one day. So many sentiment indicators are screamingly bullish because investors are so frightened. Because the stock market is a discounting mechanism and most of the current and future economic woes are already reflected in stock prices. Indeed, the stock market generally turns up about six months before the economy does."

http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/value/archive/2008/va0918.htm

 

[Braveheart]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"It's been almost 21 years since the current level of fear prevailed in U.S. financial markets - that was right after the 1987 crash when stocks plummeted 23% in one day. So many sentiment indicators are screamingly bullish because investors are so frightened. Because the stock market is a discounting mechanism and most of the current and future economic woes are already reflected in stock prices. Indeed, the stock market generally turns up about six months before the economy does."

http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/value/archive/2008/va0918.htm

OK ENOUGH as Obama states what a joke. McCain is going to Washington and he pissed so I would urge the Republicans to get this right. Obama that goofy clown this talk in Florida is more important. They should make him fly in the cargo section back to Washington for the 10 AM meeting with Bush. Since he's been getting a free ride from the press all the sudden this fraud want to debate Friday when McCain called for 13 debates.

Having a debate is more important to Obama than actually doing something positive. What a fraud and when the chips are down who do we want the man who looks out for himself or the Soldier who always puts his country first. Obama lost some votes today hopefully people see that McCain is action and Obama is words. McCain just won this election today because this unfolded before the nation and Obama was exposed. He doesn't not care about America and never has !!!!!! Anyone who makes a cent in the market in the next week or so can thank John McCain.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"It's been almost 21 years since the current level of fear prevailed in U.S. financial markets - that was right after the 1987 crash when stocks plummeted 23% in one day. So many sentiment indicators are screamingly bullish because investors are so frightened. Because the stock market is a discounting mechanism and most of the current and future economic woes are already reflected in stock prices. Indeed, the stock market generally turns up about six months before the economy does."

http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/value/archive/2008/va0918.htm

What are they waiting for then? We are near 52 week lows. Wouldn't the pros step in already?

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's time for some ownership. My oceanic account has been devalued as of yesterday from the October peak by get this my friends: $342K and my tugboat has been devalued by $133K - and no I'm still not ready to cut and run. I'll take the heat and pain and continue with my dividend reinvestments and my C fund accumulations. With the large deflation we've recently seen in the commodities it will soon be time to start acquiring them again. But even with the worst credit market in over multidecades a lot of good companies are still making good money - the economy is not the problem. To me there is a tremendous buying opportunity in the markets and I'll get my share while all this forced panic selling is happening.

Sounds like the ol' oceanic account is now the tugboat and the tugboat has become the dingy. Sound to me like you are taking a few dings ( no pun intended - good luck making it up.)

I always hate that mathematical thesis where you start with $100 dollars and when you drop by 50% to 50 dollars you have to make another $50 dollars or 100% just to break even. Just doesn't sound fair to me. But hey, what the hell do I know.

cayman

 

[Braveheart]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What are they waiting for then? We are near 52 week lows. Wouldn't the pros step in already?

Great Point but I think the problem is so many have been burned by this market including the big boys they don't trust charts, trends or anyone. Lots of fraud with CEO's and the FBI must have a large case because it's as if they want us to know it and that is not how they operate.

I stated earlier I am looking for the C Fund to get to $14.75 maybe $15.00 and I am moving out that is a short play and I will never go 100% in this market again. I still have 1 IFT left but refuse to leave the C Fund.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

OK ENOUGH
1.as Obama states what a joke.
McCain is going to Washington and he pissed so I would urge the Republicans to get this right.
2.Obama that goofy clown
3.this talk in Florida is more important.
4.They should make him fly in the cargo section back to Washington for the 10 AM meeting with Bush.
5.Since he's been getting a free ride from the press
6.all the sudden this fraud want to debate Friday
when McCain called for 13 debates.

7.Having a debate is more important to Obama than actually doing something positive.
8.What a fraud and when the chips are down who do we want the man who looks out for himself
or the Soldier who always puts his country first.
9.Obama lost some votes today
hopefully people see that McCain is action
10.and Obama is words.
McCain just won the election today
11because this unfolded before the nation and Obama was exposed.
12 He doesn't not care about America and never has !!!!!!
Anyone who makes a cent in the market in the next week or so can thank John McCain.

Well I guess that wraps it up. Either you are completely delusional and consumed with the belief that McCain is on the "up and up" and no political garbage is behind his actions - or you're right on target.

There does seem to be overwhelming hints of paranoia and anger directed towards Obama - and if I'm reading you correctly then there is NO DOUBT your perception is hugely warped against Obama and this warped perception would equally put McCain in the opposite light. It would seem that the above message wholly confirms that anyone who expresses themselve during a fit of rage or anger is likely to sound like a total idiot.

Personally I believe McCain is doing everything possible to use whatever he can to his benefit; so he makes a decision to do something and publicly announces "that Obama should join him". That forces Obama to either fall under his wing and be pushed as "McCain directs" or say I can think for myself and make my own decisions.

Whatever??? It is too close to the election for me to say anything remotely in support of (or against) either Obama or McCain. But there is a huge difference between rational thinking and irrational thinking - between having a clear head or being consumed with rage.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As previously mentioned race and propaganda are more likely to determine the outcome of the November election than any awareness or consideration of real issues by voters. This voter is being offered the opportunity for racial innocence and deliverance from the shames of my forbearers if I vote Nobama - so I think I'll handle my guilt burden awhile longer. I'll get another opportunity when Condi Rice steps up later.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What I'm thinking now is that if the economy does not rebound the Fed will have to move rates lower again. That is what happened during the last period of Fed rate cuts, when it lowered rates throughout 2001, taking the fed funds rate down to 1.75%. Then it kept rates on hold through most of 2002, before cutting again in November of that year and once more in June 2003. Rates were at 1% following that cut. I can easily see it happening again especially with the mortgage crisis and lower inflation. There are 5,000 points in front of me and the bus is empty.

 

[XL-entLady]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What I'm thinking now is that if the economy does not rebound the Fed will have to move rates lower again. That is what happened during the last period of Fed rate cuts, when it lowered rates throughout 2001, taking the fed funds rate down to 1.75%.

On the rate cut, at least, you and I agree, my friend. I'm thinking that is going to be one of the "have to do it" pieces of the political puzzle that is being thrown together right now. And if that happens, we should be in F Fund the day it does happen. So what day is it going to happen? Anybody's crystal ball working well?

Lady