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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I wrote this awhile back: I think the rhythm of the 9 month cycle has just bottomed and we are now experiencing the blast off of the girst quadrant. I wish it wasn't so because I have a truck load of dividends due the first week in September. The TICK charts are at new all time highs so under the surface, accumulation continues to go on. As long as the TICKs continue moving up, it's very hard to call this a bear market on a longer term basis - I'm staying with correction. However, every bull market in history and a good many intermediate advances, has been launched with a buying stampede that included one or more 9 to 1 up days. So from my perspective liking dividend reinvestment it's probably better to look at the current trading climate as a technical correction in a longer term bull move, this way we may anticipate the grind up rather than the rocket ride. But I won't complain either way is fine by me.
Corepuncher
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 40
Re: Birchtree's account talk
This would be good for us waiting for "Red October". The "inthemoneystocks" guy also is gearing up for a possible low in Oct.
He also says:
Our indicators and price action suggest strongly that we are beginning a rally that should last at least a couple of weeks. I also think that this week's deep low needs to be retested, and I am not convinced that a retest will be successful. My cycle work projects that a 9-Month Cycle low is due at the end of October -- about the time a retest would take place -- and cycle forces could take us to a new price low.
It is worth mentioning that the unprecedented avalanche of failures and bailouts is likely to get worse before it gets better, and we must wonder if a meltdown is over the horizon.
Then KD wrote this morning "
Beware chasing this - yes, we are going to be up huge today - probably 500+, maybe 1000+ on the DOW - think carefully about whether there has actually been a resolution to any of this mess, and whether the root problems identified here have been removed.
If you judge not, then we risk the mother and father of all market crashes at some point in the future - and probably not far in the future either."
Also watch the September employment report...could be a big down catalyst.
Braveheart
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 12
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Anyone have an answer to this question -
Since the shorts are gone for now and the new world order is in place how can we tell anything about the charts.
Right now those charts would all be outdated since we have new rules so if this market moves up 500 again on Monday what chart has any accurate information since there is no data with these new rules for what is to come.
We could jump 1500 points and right now there isn't a thing that we can follow that makes it impossible.
I see this as driving a car blind up a mountain and you can't see where the road ends and there are no rules that stop you until you run out of gas or drive off a cliff. Thoughts !!!:nuts:
Braveheart - 9/19/08
justbizness45
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 16
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Anyone have an answer to this question -
Since the shorts are gone for now and the new world order is in place how can we tell anything about the charts.
Right now those charts would all be outdated since we have new rules so if this market moves up 500 again on Monday what chart has any accurate information since there is no data with these new rules for what is to come.
We could jump 1500 points and right now there isn't a thing that we can follow that makes it impossible.
I see this as driving a car blind up a mountain and you can't see where the road ends and there are no rules that stop you until you run out of gas or drive off a cliff. Thoughts !!!:nuts:
Braveheart - 9/19/08
I'm no expert by any means, but I would be very wary of the cliff because it looks like the Mariana Trench to me.
Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Anyone have an answer to this question -
Since the shorts are gone for now and the new world order is in place how can we tell anything about the charts.
Right now those charts would all be outdated since we have new rules so if this market moves up 500 again on Monday what chart has any accurate information since there is no data with these new rules for what is to come.
We could jump 1500 points and right now there isn't a thing that we can follow that makes it impossible.
I see this as driving a car blind up a mountain and you can't see where the road ends and there are no rules that stop you until you run out of gas or drive off a cliff. Thoughts !!!:nuts:
Braveheart - 9/19/08
There you are, I mentioned you in my thread and I could not remember who posted the information. I think you make a very valid and scary point about the changing dynamics of the market and chart analysis. They are screwing with the internal checks and balances of the market to artificially rally the market. Once this all settles out we are at high risk for another violent fall, IMO.
History has proved that the government can not monkey with the markets without prolonging the pain.
Here is another point, now all the focus is on lending and not job creation, Medicare, social security, inflation, credit card debt, etc. You think the big three automakers will get the help they want now? lol What about the airline industry?
Corepuncher
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 40
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Anyone have an answer to this question -
Since the shorts are gone for now and the new world order is in place how can we tell anything about the charts.
Right now those charts would all be outdated since we have new rules so if this market moves up 500 again on Monday what chart has any accurate information since there is no data with these new rules for what is to come.
We could jump 1500 points and right now there isn't a thing that we can follow that makes it impossible.
I see this as driving a car blind up a mountain and you can't see where the road ends and there are no rules that stop you until you run out of gas or drive off a cliff. Thoughts !!!:nuts:
Braveheart - 9/19/08
Excellent points Braveheart, you hit the nail on the head. That is why I think when it comes to fear, we ain't seen nothing yet!
For example, why would anyone short financials, even after the "time out" period is over with...if the government can come in AT ANY TIME and halt shorting, wrecking your trade? This is a very dangerous game we are playing. Shorting helps balance risk. Now it may become more binary...massive rallies or massive falls!
Once the model everyone has been working with for so long is no longer valid...chaos, panic and fear will ensue. In my opinion, the government has doomed our markets to a major crash/correction...and within months. Only at rock bottom prices will confidence return and fear abate.Re: Birchtree's account talk
I guess I don't understand why stocks can't rise/fall, albeit more slowly, in a good old-fashioned bid/ask fashion. I guess the shorts did provide willing buyers once the stock reached lower prices, probably enhancing volatility, but I don't see how this fundamentally changes overall market sentiment about particular stock or index fundamentals. Now, "naked" short selling is another story and, in my opinion, the laws against it should be enforced.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
They can always short ETFs - but they now are required to borrow the position first before they sell - this has always been the rule only now it will be enforced. I posted this awhile back; financial armageddon for banks in the South East are down an astounding 70.53% as a collective and are now reaching the lowest values seen since 1996 - 12 years ago. Will they come back as hard as they went down - who knows and I don't really care as I suspect there will be many buyouts. I'm sure glad so far that I had the sense to step in front of that train and buy so many stinky banks. Pulled down $111K yesterday. What kind of temperment is needed to be a good investor? Tenacity is vital. So is patience. And so, too, is an ability to keep a sane perspective. The surprise going forward might be daily up moves that just last and last - not providing any good entry points - just look at 2003 as a reminder. The higher it goes the more it costs to build a position. And really the number of shares you accumulate is what makes you rich.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"A bullish key reversal has formed off quite low levels with the 14 week stochastic turning higher from oversold levels. In the past, this has led the ratio higher and coincided with higher stock prices... the technical are showing that last week was at least "a bottom", with the jury still out as to whether it was "the bottom". Be in to win.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/RHODES.htmlBraveheart
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 12
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I think they should put back the uptick rule. There was no reason to stop it in 2007 and without explanation it was eliminated. Who was the force behind this would you believe - LEHMAN BROS & FOLD. How is that for Carma !!!!!
HedgeHog
Rising Member
- Reaction score
- 1
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Good day Birchtree, Some observations are that "S" was up 10.6% from Wednesday close to Friday close. "I" was up 9.4% and "C" 8.33%. The Dow had its largest 2 session move since Oct. 2002. Now where from here. I used my monthly IFT round trip on "C" using the thought buy the drop on Wed. and sell the bounce Fri. (bear market strategy). 10,600 looked like a good entry point to me and will again if it goes back there. Oct. is a month that has a history of moving lower (In Oct. 1987 drop I tried buying the bounce and learned the hard way about the markets opening much higher then it closes sometime). Question would be if 20% drop is sign of recession, what is the sign of a recovery from a recession that indicates a bull startup. The charts and comment I find consolidated on this website make an educated guess a little easier then reading a bunch of financial papers. My thought is that things will be bumpy/volitile for awhile. Buy low and hold for the market turnaround is tried and proven plan but like many folks I am wondering what is low. Dow 10,600 was a fairly dark point in time this past week and if the government didn't step in it is hard to tell where this next week would go. It is still very hard to tell since things are so dire that Uncle Sam believes they had to step in and save the financial world (is the medicine worse then the desease is sure to be asked in the coming weeks/years). HH
Corepuncher
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 40
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Today, I come to spread cheer and sunshine!
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/587-The-Mother-Of-All-Frauds.html
justbizness45
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 16
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Today, I come to spread cheer and sunshine!
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/587-The-Mother-Of-All-Frauds.html
To add to the cheer.........
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080921/pl_politico/13690
Corepuncher
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 40
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
HedgeHog,
Thanks for your comments - my daughter is an Army captain stationed in Honolulu. Thankyou also Corepuncher for the links.
We all must remember that the reasons we get paid more as equity investors are the ups and downs we experience in the market. To stay true to your investing strategy, you must act the opposite of how you feel. I don't know when things are going to turn around - but I do know that now is time to be opportunistic and gobble, gobble 'em up.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Corepuncher,
The last time I mentioned that I prefer not to read Denninger and I apologized profusely for that was in one of your threads. And would you believe one of our more esteemed moderators gave me negative reputation points - go figure. That guy is a class act (moderator) and deserves a hot poker. Snort.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
HedgeHog,
I forgot to answer your primary question. Every bull market in history, and a good many intermediate advances, has been launched with a buying stampede that included one or more 9 to 1 up days. We'll see what transpires tomorrow - regardless I'm totaly excited and will be doing some buying even if I'm chasing prices - they are not going to get any cheaper.
Corepuncher
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 40
Re: Birchtree's account talk
That Denninger guy is a whining baby, but, has been right on many points.
I actually tried to join his forum. He says in order to join, you have make a "donation", then you can post. So, I donated 1 dollar through Paypal. The rules state that he will take "any amount". Later he emailed me back and said I was trying to take advantage of the system, sent me my dollar back and canceled my account. I showed him his own rules but he didn't seem to care.Similar threads
