Birchtree's Account Talk

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If the 9 month cycle has already bottomed - a significant bottom may be behind ua as some of the MCSUMs have already suggested back in July.

Yup, Dow Theory still on a buy, Sentiment indicators not only made new buy signals, but they completely blew out the previous lows/highs and made readings not seen in years. Here comes the best bottom signal of all.... 5 co-workers went to G yesterday in a storm of panic, one liquidated his savings account.

I love this kind of atmosphere. I DCA'd some more Japanese stocks today before the turn, right around the time that the VIX hit 41. Not that I plan on selling them any time soon, but at least I know I got 'em at a nice discount.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch,
Just had a thought in between catching up on charts...

Usually if a BEAR is coming I'm pretty good at spotting them.

Where you have a knack for spotting the BULL

Maybe we could go in together; form a company like "A$$ KICKERS" :toung:



good night all

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Paulson just said the core problem of all this debt was the real estate correction - not a recession in the real estate arena.

 

[presskh]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Paulson just said the core problem of all this debt was the real estate correction - not a recession.

He's probably fundamentally right. However, when you add up the decreased home equity people have to borrow from, the spike in energy and other commodity costs, increased unemployment, and decreased willingness for financial institutions to lend for either homes, cars, or commercial ventures, the sum total usually is a recession.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm thinking that tomorrow would be a good day for my nemesis Digger to come googleing. In preparation I'm going to take two Senna (a natural vegetable laxative) and eat a big bowel of Mapo to get the blow out fiber. Then I'll slap some KY around the ole sphincter and presto ready for a semi-proctoscopic visit with tenderness. I just have to remind myself to be vigilant when I go to sit down or she could be lost.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

presskh,

This debt level is caused only by 3% of the population.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm seriously thinking that tomorrow may hold a $100K day for me - and that's not being braggadacio - but I'm still a long way from my October 9th peak from last year.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm seriously thinking that tomorrow may hold a $100K day for me - and that's not being braggadacio - but I'm still a long way from my October 9th peak from last year.

It's already at what appears to be a NEW RECORD STARTING HIGH

Birch, I'm not going to say "This is a BULL Market" - but I would definately say we are FULLY IN AN UPWARD TREND THAT WE CAN COUNT ON TO KEEP RISING.

You'll get way over a $100K DAY -


On a side note Birch, as your brother (and friend) I wish you wouldn't tell anyone what kind of money you have (or what you're making).

Trust me Birch, I've been around many circles throughout my life and there are tons of people who would do anything and everything to get your money. Be careful my friend; we've only heard the news and the pain is yet to come.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm a lot like the Ancient Mariner - lots of money but none to spend. Today could be more than ten billion on volume. Smells like the start of a new bull leg with this volume. Snort

 

[coach222]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm a lot like the Ancient Mariner - lots of money but none to spend. Today could be more than ten billion on volume. Smells like the start of a new bull leg with this volume. Snort

Well, it does smell like something.

Hey, anybody know what government agency or what forms I need to fill out for "my share" of the "public" pie?" It sure would be nice to get a golden parachute AND not have to pay my mortgage anymore.

Since everyone needs to be more patriotic and pay more taxes (Joe Biden), just make the checks out to me.

Thanks in advance.

Coach

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If this is the beginning of a new bull leg, most of the money will be made in the next two months. Even with all this financial mess corporate profits are primarily still intact and that's important to the market - remember try to think longer term. I'd like to see an 800 point day to the upside - that would really create some anxiety.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I spoke with a friend of mine yesterday from Jacksonville, Florida. He expressed to me that he reads and watches the local news and sees all these shootings and murders going on. What impresses him is that when they do a local scene most of the people are hanging around outside their homes and most of those homes are larger than his. They are all approaching 2500 to 3000 square feet and belong to the at risk population. These are the folks defaulting on their mortgages and these are the people the government is going to help save their homes with more stimulus packages and loan reduction rates. Go figure, the meek shall inherit the Washington funds and the more responsible citizens will pay the tab. Yup, that's how it works.

 

[Gumby]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I spoke with a friend of mine yesterday from Jacksonville, Florida. He expressed to me that he reads and watches the local news and sees all these shootings and murders going on. What impresses him is that when they do a local scene most of the people are hanging around outside their homes and most of those homes are larger than his. They are all approaching 2500 to 3000 square feet and belong to the at risk population. These are the folks defaulting on their mortgages and these are the people the government is going to help save their homes with more stimulus packages and loan reduction rates. Go figure, the meek shall inherit the Washington funds and the more responsible citizens will pay the tab. Yup, that's how it works.

Birch,

All these people have their McMansion. 0% down, heck they were just renting anyway.

 

[love-to-bike]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Paulson just said the core problem of all this debt was the real estate correction - not a recession in the real estate arena.

Well of course he would say that, being the former chief exec. at Goldman Sachs. This administration is full of Goldman people, but that's nothing new, Clinton had them as well. These are smart people, but they will do anything to cover their a$$ and protect their own interests.

What really gets me is how this old boy network manipulates the process to their own good. While there isn't a single cause for this meltdown, the Goldman boys (and others) played a direct role. One example:

For the past 30+ years, the SEC has enforced net capital rules that limits broker dealers to limit their debt-to-net capital to 12-1. In 2004, then SEC Chairman Donaldson (the former Chair & CEO of the NYSE) gave an exemption to 5 firms to allow them to leverage their debt up to 30-40 to 1.

Who were the these five that received this special exemption? Funny you should ask, they were Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and Morgan Stanley.

Let's run the scorecard on how these firms have fared:

Goldman Sachs - begging for a federal lifeline that they'll most likely get. Hey, Paulson, Sec. of the Treasury, is the former CEO of Goldman. In addition, Bush's chief of staff, Joshua Bolton worked there as well, as did Paulson's right hand man, Robert Steel (who just left to run Wachovia). Hmmm, I wonder how Goldman will fare?

Merrill Lynch - whoops, they aren't around anymore.

Lehman Brothers - whoops, they aren't around anymore.

Bear Stearns - whoops, they aren't around anymore.

Morgan Stanley - like Goldman, begging for that federal lifeline.

Hey, I'm a fiscal conservative and as a small business owner, I don't want excessive government intervention and regulations burdening me. But this reckless deregulation of both the housing and security industry (going back to '99) is the cause of most of this mess. Security regulations have their place because without them, most people resort to greed and short-term gains without thinking clearly of the potential downside, in this case of carrying way too much debt (much of it bad).

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Go figure, the meek shall inherit the Washington funds and the more responsible citizens will pay the tab. Yup, that's how it works.

Must be in the "genes" Birch. I pondered on that at least an hour last night. The FACTS ARE: Those who chose to live responsibly

Paying off their house
Avoiding debt
Working hard to maintain a solid reputation
Doing the kind of work that advances them
Building their savings by maintaining simplicity
and the numerous other features that distinguish us (from them)​

ARE THE ONES WHO WILL PAY THE PRICE - BECAUSE THEY HAVE THE MONEY - AND THE OTHERS HAVE NOTING TO GIVE​

 

[Silverbird]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

To me, it's the ones who wrote the loans to anyone who could sign their name, and then sold them for a nice profit, they are the ones who won this round. They've taken their money and ran.

Ditto with the "multiple house" players, though at least if they foreclose it shows on their credit record.

Those who did this for the house they live in, well in many cases its help them stay in their house, or pay for their food, rent, gas, medical bills, etc through food stamps, emergency room medical visits, and you know the rest.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Silverbird,

You are obviously correct but it becomes difficult to make a mortgage payment with increasing rates off of a welfare check. This is what the Donkey Congress wanted and now we all pay the price. To me this is an unspoken at risk racial crisis - it's time for the safety net. But that's OK because I'm heavily invested and will reap my own gains for the risks I assume. Like it's not my problem but at least I know the cause of this mess.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, I did the horrible thing and made a "quick" move to G from C today. I really hope 1995 isn't starting just yet.

 

[Silverbird]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Silverbird,

You are obviously correct but it becomes difficult to make a mortgage payment with increasing rates off of a welfare check. This is what the Donkey Congress wanted and now we all pay the price. To me this is an unspoken at risk racial crisis - it's time for the safety net. But that's OK because I'm heavily invested and will reap my own gains for the risks I assume. Like it's not my problem but at least I know the cause of this mess.

Well, yes, it's unbridled financial elephants who forgot that you have to set parameters for the sandbox or some of the lenders get sharkey. If the donkeys help only the big finance guys they'll be chased out of town. I hope they didn't borrow to do this, though, because then it's all animals charging toward a big cliff of debt.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"At present, the charts say the rally is likely to continue, albeit not at the current rate of climb. At the end of the day, we are still in a bear market, and we should expect that the rally will fail before prices can break out of the major declining trend channel."

http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2008/0919.html