Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

And the hits just keep coming - I sold my FNM, FRE, LEH for the losses which will help off set some previous gains. I bought more AIG, MER, and WB. When I speculate I realize that there is the chance for loss - so I'm totally accepting.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch -

I'm really feeling it today. These are those rare moments in history where prices go through a rapid decline. It's the perfect time for long term investors to start throwing in the money to IRAs and Educational funds for the young kids. I'm looking at the long term charts of the S&P and there really isn't many of these bear moments in there. I just went in today and bought myself some XLF shares at these low prices.

Isn't this how Buffet did it?

XLF below:

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

And the hits just keep coming - I sold my FNM, FRE, LEH for the losses which will help off set some previous gains. I bought more AIG, MER, and WB. When I speculate I realize that there is the chance for loss - so I'm totally accepting.

That's wonderful Birch.

There is nothing like contentment in the midst of the storm. This is what truely distinguishes the winners from the losers; the ones who have invested for the long run and are always prepared when the storms strike.

 

[ChemEng]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I bought more AIG

Wow--gutsy move.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

fabijo,

I bought a broad spectrum of banks at the July lows and so far the majority of them are holding fine. Of course a few have hit the skids but that's tolerable. What's interesting is that the XLF breadth MCO is at 3 year highs but the price action has not moved in the MCO direction. But since breadth usually leads price it's just a matter of time to see catch up occur. With the MCO moving to 3 year highs this is rocket fuel. Buy'em when no one else wants them - we are close to the end of this downside in financial crisis.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

ChemEng,

At $4.25 for AIG the risk is worth the effort. I've ended up with a nice profit in ABK so far. No one enjoys taking a loss but there is a small blessing available when the loss can be used to reduce taxes. Being wrong comes with the franchise of an activity whose outcome depends on an unknown future.

 

[ChemEng]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

ChemEng,

At $4.25 for AIG the risk is worth the effort. I've ended up with a nice profit in ABK so far. No one enjoys taking a loss but there is a small blessing available when the loss can be used to reduce taxes. Being wrong comes with the franchise of an activity whose outcome depends on an unknown future.

Best of luck with the move...

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

fabijo,

I bought a broad spectrum of banks at the July lows and so far the majority of them are holding fine. Of course a few have hit the skids but that's tolerable. What's interesting is that the XLF breadth MCO is at 3 year highs but the price action has not moved in the MCO direction. But since breadth usually leads price it's just a matter of time to see catch up occur. With the MCO moving to 3 year highs this is rocket fuel. Buy'em when no one else wants them - we are close to the end of this downside in financial crisis.

I bought XLF twice today. First, I bought at 20.29, then again at 19.90. I was just too excited and wanted to purchase before they went up. Turns out it closed at 19.25. That's what happens when I get excited about drops.

It was still fun and worth it!

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

:laugh: Man, what a purchase you made! I just looked at AIG charts! Ha! Awesome.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

ChemEng,

At $4.25 for AIG the risk is worth the effort. I've ended up with a nice profit in ABK so far. No one enjoys taking a loss but there is a small blessing available when the loss can be used to reduce taxes. Being wrong comes with the franchise of an activity whose outcome depends on an unknown future.

If you are wrong enough times you won't owe any taxes at all!! ALL HAIL UNCLE SAM. Only fly in the ointment is last time I checked it's a tax deduction that offsets gains not a credit so unfortunately not dollar for dollar. That Uncle Sam sure can **** you off sometimes - those rat bastards in congress - how dare they??

Hell, is it possible to dollar cost average to .... well ..... nothing???

Good luck Birchtree - you reminding me of the Wile E. Coyote. I have this mental image of you stretching back that giant sling shot as you pass all the bears heading for the gold. :laugh:

cayman

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It looks like tomorrow may be blow out time - so I'm considering pre-empting my take over of HPC to generate cash to do more buying. I can't help it - the old greed factor.

 

[Braveheart]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well it looks like the Folks at Leh and Co. will want refund. Imagine &16.1 million to Obama & a few cents to McCain. What is up with Goldman Sachs is Obama making some back door deal with them. Whose $$ are they spending ??? Why is Merrill Lynch getting a deal and are safe they donated to the right candidate. LoL Lehman backed the wrong guy and they are out on their arse. This was as of July so we still had 6 more weeks. Imagine what a waste !!!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's time for some ownership. My oceanic account has been devalued as of yesterday from the October peak by get this my friends: $342K and my tugboat has been devalued by $133K - and no I'm still not ready to cut and run. I'll take the heat and pain and continue with my dividend reinvestments and my C fund accumulations. With the large deflation we've recently seen in the commodities it will soon be time to start acquiring them again. But even with the worst credit market in over multidecades a lot of good companies are still making good money - the economy is not the problem. To me there is a tremendous buying opportunity in the markets and I'll get my share while all this forced panic selling is happening.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
You are in a league that few Fed. Employees know.

The overwheming bulk of "wealthy individuals" I know are equally not phased by a $0.5 M loss - because over the duration their investments have brought them far more gains; they are solid; well diversified; and guaranteed to stand through the years.

More than likely the majority of the MB can't let the Tugboat fall that far (and most of us are more desperate to minimize the losses).

It's often a Catch 22 - because too much fear prevents the gains.

It's probably about impossible to not admire your character.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

My truck has been loaded for several months waiting for the bottom to arrive - if I were out of the market I wouldn't collect the income from the dividends. The holy grail will once again save my skinny butt - especially if we turn around quickly. If we head even lower I'll remain patient and sell a few positions to gather cash so I can take opportunity of these lower prices because this will set me up for years to come. Market panics are a harvest time for seasoned investors - I like firesale prices. I've actually done well this year unloading my commodity plays and then buying the toxic waste portfolio - time will provide the answer to determine if I'm sane.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Below is the chart showing the level of New Lows going back to 2000....a length of time that covers the last Bear Market. Note that over 700 on New Lows has been a historically important level. Back in 2001 and 2002, above marked the bottom of some pretty ferocious down moves." According to TWSJ yesterday had 792 new lows.

http://safehaven.com/article-11255.htm

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The fix is in - got Financials my Friend. I do, but I will sell them soon for a nice profit. You will be the Big Winner 12 months from now, but my brokerage accounts is for Fast Money only. So I'm looking to sell....


Take care and the board is very Bearish again so stay out of those Bear Trap threads for Bulls....


I'm still playing by Bear Market rules for now, but soon I will play by Bull Market Rules. A gap up tomorrow and I might be a seller again.


Bring back the dippers and the up-tick rule.... I miss the smell of sweet manue and I'm getting pretty tired of the Bear shiiiiit.... Ha....

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I had mentioned to fabijo on his thread a few days ago that the XLF breadth MCO was at 3 year highs but the price action had not moved in the MCO direction, but since breadth usually leads price it's just a matter of time to see some catch up occur. With the MCO moving to 3 year highs this is rocket fuel. Of all the toxic waste financials I bought back in July, I've only given back three so far - not bad odds for a vulture.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

In the event McCain wins I dreamed up a little celebration bash in Gainesville, FL.

Would start off with 'Psycho Killer' by the Talking Heads
Then probably follow with the Village People

Doesn't that sound like the perfect match??

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Oh, what a day. I spent most of the day being productive. My good news is that my inhouse banker (wife) is lending me $30K to buy stocks during this firesale - that means I won't have to sell any assets to raise cash. Ain't she sweet. There are some strings attached though: I have to go into a church while my daughter gets married and I'm not to raise any ruckus and I also have to dance as well as walk her down the isle. I'm not to mention anything about the odds of divorce three years down the road. I'm to be the happy go lucky guy - so the sacrifice is doable to get an extra $30K. She drives a hard bargain. But tomorrow I should be in position to try and buy myself into happiness - $30K can go a long way at these current prices.