Birchtree's Account Talk

[JTH]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks Steady, but I'm not sure you give yourself enough credit. I think your an important part of this message board, like the little angle sitting on the right shoulder reminding us about the simple yet important things in life that go beyond money.

If this was a political forum or thread, I'd be likely to be much more harsh towards those whose opinions are part of a generation I cannot agree with or relate to. However this is Birchtree's home thread and I try to be as polite as possible when visiting others, and I try to respect my elders. :cheesy:

In a way, I liken Birchtree and his opinions, to that of my dad. My dad is a life-long conservative Democrat who absolutely detest Bush and this latest batch of oil-driven world dominating neocons. He's not going to change his mind about anything he's set on, and I consider myself lucky if I'm able to get my opinion in.

Most of the time I just try to find things we agree on, and if I'm lucky, in my older years my kids will will do the same with me.

 

[luv2read]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

JTH...well said! I'm impressed.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

One last thing:

Everyone go to G Fund or F Fund and stay there. The Markets will tumble and crash through 2008 and only those who flee now and stay out will survive.

Well in this ultra competitive world :worried:- I hope everyone is now in either G or F. :embarrest: Please don't let today's action fool you. We are going down and going down fast.

But I'm like the captain who stands on the deck and shakes his fist in the air challenging the storm that's ripping the ship to pieces. I refuse to accept we are sinking - despite the water rushing in and knowing everyone else has taken the life boats.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, I'm a little concerned.

You'd mentioned buying more FNM and FRE.

After hours today they did fairly well.

From my perspective it's great to buy when it took a huge dive and ride it back up a little (as James has done). If they are being taken over - which I am convinced of - it will likely be within the next few months, while Bush is still in office. When this happens it will follow the same format that has consistently taken place so far. It will happen over a weekend and the shares will go for a fraction of their last posted price.

Do you project a take over? If so are you planning on cashing in fairly soon??

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

I've been off line for a few days taking a break and prepping my fall garden. My positions in FNM and FRE will probably go out as a tax loss at some point. The rest of my bank stocks and housing related are doing fine along witrh ABK. When I take the contrarian approach I always anticipate some failure.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Write offs are good Birch - and I know you're doing well overall; but my heart really went out to you and I've been trying my best to give you a 'head's up'.

Anyway, take care.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I believe we are still in rally mode with a positive test of the July low. We need to solidly break above the 38.2% level of 1290 on the SPX. I'm giving the rally pattern the benefit of the doubt as long as it holds 1250-1235 on any pull back. The first level to target is the 50% retracement level of the May-July decline at 1320, then the 61.8% at 1350. Failure to break above the 1290 level would be a sign of weakness and imply that the SPX has the potential to at least test the July low of 1200 and arguably to next support in the 1175-1135 range. When this market turns it will be with a vengence so the best policy for me is to just sit tight and hope to be right.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Come join us Birch!

I found a picture of you Birch!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That's a lovely majestic picture of me. The only thing I can do now or willing to do, is to wait on Friday and get more C fund shares at the potential lows. The lowest price paid this year was $14.39 - so perhaps I'll be fortunate enough to get even more shares at an even lower price. There has to be a silver lining here somewhere.

 

[ATCJeff]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That's a lovely majestic picture of me. The only thing I can do now or willing to do, is to wait on Friday and get more C fund shares at the potential lows. The lowest price paid this year was $14.39 - so perhaps I'll be fortunate enough to get even more shares at an even lower price. There has to be a silver lining here somewhere.

That's a positive attitude Birch.

 

[love-to-bike]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

And let's hope your ABK bounces back, that's taken a pounding lately. Probably a good time to jump in....

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I remember it took about four years for my MOS (Mosaic) to travel from around $18.00 to $160.00. I cleared the fence at $145.00 and it's now at $81 after today - how low will it go is the question. I'm essentially out of most of the agricultural commodity plays for now having invested heavily with those profits into toxic waste financials, housing builders, and related materials. The hedge funds are profit taking trying to stop their bleeding - they think mostly about today rather than tomorrow - I'm more future oriented so usually look across the fog in the valley to the next horizon. I can list 120 reasons why this economy is not dead - but the McCain rally will kick in shortly - so prepare for the next four years because they may resemble the investment scenario of the last four years - and oh the money I made.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just realized my darling wife collected her FRS contribution to her defined contribution plan today - it will be the equivalent of three pay checks. That was the silver lining I was looking for - such great pricing. Ah, the joy of it all. And Mindy Lou says can I pick a few stocks too daddy. Sure honey, just point that paw you're as good at it as I am, perhaps better. After all you did pick Heinz.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The bad news for today was that the utility index blew out its bottom of the channel formation at 460 to end at 444. That's rather disconcerting. However, investors are always faced with intensely negative news and many times a crisis atmosphere which pushes stock prices temporarily lower - today qualifies in that regard. But, bull markets begin in the middle of all the bad news. The present cash levels in money funds is higher currently than the start of any bull market of the past 30 years - a little improvement in the news, (Sarah Palin), an end to the oil price spike and a shift in investor attitudes toward optimism will open the flood gates of money fund assets flowing back into stocks - I hope it doesn't start until next Monday. It's more important for me to have benefit of lower pricing in the C fund while I'm still working and not worry about a temporary devaluation of my account. Snort.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The bad news for today was that the utility index blew out its bottom of the channel formation at 460 to end at 444. That's rather disconcerting. However, investors are always faced with intensely negative news and many times a crisis atmosphere which pushes stock prices temporarily lower - today qualifies in that regard. But, bull markets begin in the middle of all the bad news. The present cash levels in money funds is higher currently than the start of any bull market of the past 30 years - a little improvement in the news, (Sarah Palin), an end to the oil price spike and a shift in investor attitudes toward optimism will open the flood gates of money fund assets flowing back into stocks - I hope it doesn't start until next Monday. It's more important for me to have benefit of lower pricing in the C fund while I'm still working and not worry about a temporary devaluation of my account. Snort.

Once again blatantly ripping off others and claiming it for your own. You really are relentless at using others analysis and trying to make it appear that you did it. Yeah we know, You forgot or it doesn't matter who said it, or facts are facts who cares who said it. You are the ultimate false prophet. Go Birchbiden!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You certainly are my glorious beacon of light. I cherish the moments I'm in your thoughts.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Capital that is sitting on the sidelines is now at record highs (such an amount of capital was virtually non-existent back in February 2003, let alone July 1982 or Ocdtober 1990 ) not just in sovereign wealth funds, but in private equity funds and hedge funds as well. The 1990 peak in capital preceded a great rally which ended in the summer of 1998. Take a look at the graph that fabijo has posted on his thread - get ready for 1995 all over again.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

or how about "worse" than 1995? An angle of ascent that keeps us from buying loads of shares and onlookers just watch in shock and awe.

 

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

So you're saying we have to live through flat market for 5 years (til 2012-from 2007) before things pick up again? That's what the 1990-95 section on a 1990-2008 spx chart looks like. Lots of other people in the world been saying that too, you're not as out of step as you think sometimes, other than averaging down into the macroscale extended flatline.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Capital that is sitting on the sidelines is now at record highs (such an amount of capital was virtually non-existent back in February 2003, let alone July 1982 or Ocdtober 1990 ) not just in sovereign wealth funds, but in private equity funds and hedge funds as well. The 1990 peak in capital preceded a great rally which ended in the summer of 1998. Take a look at the graph that fabijo has posted on his thread - get ready for 1995 all over again.

Birch is not saying it. He's quoting it. But he wont put the source because he wants members to think he knows it. He is so desperate he even put in a typo (Ocdtober)to make it appear like it was his comments. Pathetic.