Birchtree's Account Talk

[Frozen]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"I will delight in collecting a $14.01 price for the C fund Friday if that is in the works, that's 57 shares for the kitty. The lowest price I've paid so far this year was $14.39. Yes, give me my $14.00 price and shut me up - very few think like I do and that's just fine because they are my shares and someday soon they will be worth a lot more. So if we retest the July bottom that is fine because the lower we go the more shares I buy - been here and done this before."

I am trying to understand your enthusiasm for these market declines. I can see where a lower c fund price might be seen as a buying opportunity, but where does the money come from to buy more shares? Unless you are not fully invested and have some pot within the G fund, how can you add to your total balance in the TSP- other than your monthly contribution? If you have x dollars and the market drops, it seems you drop with it - a zero sum game. So "the lower we go the more shares I buy...." with what???? And what do you mean by saying "that's 57 shares for the kitty"??

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree is talking of his paycheck TSP contribution buying more shares of the C Fund. Dang, at last a question I knew the answer to.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I will delight in collecting a $14.01 price for the C fund Friday if that is in the works, that's 57 shares for the kitty. The lowest price I've paid so far this year was $14.39. Yes, give me my $14.00 price and shut me up - very few think like I do and that's just fine because they are my shares and someday soon they will be worth a lot more. So if we retest the July bottom that is fine because the lower we go the more shares I buy - been here and done this before.

What amazes me the most is how others regard you - and anyone that has developed a similar mindset. You are the goat - leading all the sheep over a steep cliff.

This would be true if you had the average $73,000 TSP Balance with nothing to spare. It would not be true for anyone with $500,000 in ready available cash reserves and at least $2M solidly invested on top of that. Nor would it be true for someone who went 100% S Fund on 6/5 and then bought the equivalent shares in early 8/08.

We may vary in our political views, our religious beliefs, and in other ways - and I may wash my cup before I fill it again...but when it comes to MONEY and outstanding investment strategy - you are one of the very best.

Here I totally agree with you Birch. Let it fall as low as it wants, the lower the better - as I'll buy more and more. This is an election year and when the worms crawl back in the dirt - the sheep will trample them underfoot. There are winners and there are losers. I may play a different game (S Fund) but I have a winning style.

I believe the remainder of this year is our last chance to get ahead (TSP wise) for sometime to come and will shift to G Fund by 09 or the beginning of 09. When the building tumbles I will be in safety.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What amazes me the most is how others regard you - and anyone that has developed a similar mindset. You are the goat - leading all the sheep over a steep cliff.

This would be true if you had the average $73,000 TSP Balance with nothing to spare. It would not be true for anyone with $500,000 in ready available cash reserves

What amazes me is reverence for a strategy in which you are happy to pay $17,000 to buy $800 worth of shares at $14.00.

There are no cash reserves available. There are 34,000 shares worth $14.50 ea.

He will be happy to let the value of those shares drop to $14.00 in order to let his contribution money buy $800 worth.

34,000 shares dropping buy 50 cents ea. is $17,000......
to pick up 57 shares..........?

I'll happily bounce around as a chiclett while the bull frog sits in the pan, even after watching the farmer raise the water to a boil..............

To each his own........... it's tough out there.

Maybe it's better to hope the water gets turned down soon rather than go out into the barnyard where the clever old fox can get you.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What amazes me is reverence for a strategy in which you are happy to pay $17,000 to buy $800 worth of shares at $14.00.

There are no cash reserves available. There are 34,000 shares worth $14.50 ea.

He will be happy to let the value of those shares drop to $14.00 in order to let his contribution money buy $800 worth.

34,000 shares dropping buy 50 cents ea. is $17,000......
to pick up 57 shares..........?

I'll happily bounce around as a chiclett while the bull frog sits in the pan, even after watching the farmer raise the water to a boil..............

To each his own........... it's tough out there.

Maybe it's better to hope the water gets turned down soon rather than go out into the barnyard where the clever old fox can get you.

TD, I got lost somewhere between the Cow and Sheep references ! :laugh:

One of the biggest mistakes investors make is to set goals and change
those goals mid stream. Birch will not do that. He's using the proven
method of buying on the way down and reaping maximum reward when
the Market turns. And it will turn. He's lowering his average cost per share
by doing so. This takes strict discipline and a set made of titanium. But
his personal situation and investment goals allows for such. I have neither
the time, nor the testiclular fortitude to recover from such a process.
Maybe you don't either ? But if you do, Birch could show you ways to
make some real money over time. Not in the teaching sense (thats not
Birch), but by reading between the lines within his thread and researching
the Philosophy itself. If I knew then, what I know now, I'd be sitting in the
Bahamas sipping Mamma's come eligability. Instead, I'm humping for 6.5
more years. Who knows, you may end up being the next success story.
Certainly, Birch has plenty to offer and I've learned alot from his sharing.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hopping in and out can work in a bear market like now. The problem happens when the bear market turns into a bull market. The bears will still be trying to play it like a bear market for quite some time, losing out on the gains - getting out too soon or jumping in too late.

Squalebear's right. You need to stick with a strategy constantly. It just takes a machine to do that.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

........ I'm humping for 6.5 more years.

6.5 for me too.........good luck.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

6.5 for me too.........good luck.

Thanks TD. Mistakes are unacceptable is this stage of the game !
Oh yes, they'll happen ! But we're going to be right more then wrong !
We have no choice ! It is our Deeeestinyyyy ! (Star Wars reference) :toung:

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What amazes me is reverence for a strategy in which you are happy to pay $17,000 to buy $800 worth of shares at $14.00.

My friend, I typically reserve B&H for sustainded Bull Markets.

In volitile markets I usually make frequent ITFs. On 6/5 went 100% S Fund held on and bought again in early 8/08 - to bring about a quicker and larger recovery.

In the event the S Fund would drop another 15 to 20% then I'm prepared to buy a lot more. The more I have at a lower price the bigger the gain and the quicker I recover.

There are no cash reserves available. Birch is very open about his assets; where as I am very vague. He has $500,000 in cash reserves and at least $2M in other investments. He could easily roll as much as he wants in the TSP for additional shares if he wanted. But due to his circumstances - he is in no hurry because the overwhelming odds are he will gain in the long run and he knows it.

There are 34,000 shares worth $14.50 ea. I didn't realize he'd disclosed how many shares he has. I would never reveal that kind of info.

He will be happy to let the value of those shares drop to $14.00 in order to let his contribution money buy $800 worth.

34,000 shares dropping buy 50 cents ea. is $17,000......
to pick up 57 shares..........? But for Birch (and me - at this point) the steeper it falls the more we can buy at a cheap price. As long as we don't sell - we don't lose - and the more shares we obtain the better.

I'll happily bounce around as a chiclett while the bull frog sits in the pan, even after watching the farmer raise the water to a boil.............. I certainly understand your thinking and in hind sight I would have bailed on 6/6 - but did not want to sell at a loss and not have an ITF. In hindsight we'd never make mistakes.

To each his own........... it's tough out there. It's possible I'll wind up hugely disappointed - if in fact the Markets really tumble prior to the election and continue going down for several years. My investments in the TSP are wholly based on how I see the last quarter panning out.

Maybe it's better to hope the water gets turned down soon rather than go out into the barnyard where the clever old fox can get you.

The basis of my post - was simply meant as a confirmation to Birchtree's outstanding overall investment strategy. I personally don't know anyone else who does their banking "in house"; who keeps his wife fully in on every action; who rejoices in every situation and takes advantage of all oportunities. He is a winner through and through and the TSP means nothing in his situation because he only accumulates more and more shares and never sells at a loss.

He is also very aggressive in maximizing gains, and I don't know anyone I would trust more to manage all my assets down the line.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey everyone,
Please ignore my last few posts.

The fact is I am by nature not a buy and holder and I am living proof of the advantage of adjusting your investments.

But the bulk of this MB are "ITFers" as well. My last few posts are partly to reflect why "despite the marked loss I took" I believe it is best to hold on and buy more. It's impossible to avoid the day to day when all of us watch the Markets so closely - and equally frequent this site to exchange with each other.

The other part of me felt like Birch was under attack - and so I responded - when I should have just ignored it.

I know all us would like to come out ahead - and equally it would be great if we wound up towards the top of the Auto Tracker. BUT our account is a very personal matter and how I compare to you; or you compare to me is not important. So in all sincereity I believe my plan will work for me in the long run - and I will largely remain high risk until it's over. But that's me and I do things my own way. Yet everyone else has a different strategy that is equally valid for them.

So GL to all and may the year end well for all of us.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The other part of me felt like Birch was under attack - and so I responded -

Confussion or misunderstanding of all that goes into our decisions to
make IFT's can easily happen when simply reading our posts at face
value. Believe me, I've down right embarassed myself over the same
thing. Failing to ask the questions which needed to be asked is what
lead me to believe that Traffic Dog might have been aggresive in his
retort. I posted just after his comments in order for him to have a
better understanding and eliminate any confussion. His responses to
my post appeared to be accepting and positive in nature. Posting
ones Balance or Share Amounts is a no-no and I'm sure this is all
just a learning process that we all go through upon our first arrival.

Don't be so hard on yourself My Big Brother ! It wasn't hard to come
to your conclusion, I did myself initially, but opted to clarify in hopes
I was wrong.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Don't be so hard on yourself My Big Brother!

Thank you my dear friend. That felt like a "good hug" and is much appreciated. This is a good family; kind of like a giant football team and it's often just what each of us needs.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Some good folks just don't respond well to the friendly and warm term of chiclett. Traffic Dog has a pragmatic and unique perspective and I usually ask for any negative vibes that come my way. But am I repentant, nah. Sometimes I just like to have fun. I'm actually trying to decide if I should double down some more on FNM and FRE - my strategy says to go for it and if the positions become loosers they are write offs for taxes. Not all of my investments are completely rational - but I can assume the risks. I've made serious money this year by liquidating some of my commodity plays and I can certainly use a few more tax write offs to reduce my capital gains. I don't feel the panic or necessity to trade my tugboat (TSP) but rather to just keep accumulating more shares - it's all in the sacrifice one is willing to make and what time interval is available. If I never had to sell a stock in my oceanic account I wouldn't. I'd prefer to pass the stocks on to the next generation where the step up in basis would eliminate any tax. But when prices get golden my sacrifice then becomes to raise cash to continue further buying of more dull and unloved wall flowers. Unfortunately many of my wall flowers had turned into Queens and it was necessary for them to move forward and provide cash for the next group. I'm fond of saying that if it's toxic I want to own it and I'm now holding 295 individual issues. By the way, my wife has a very nice defined contribution plan that is fully loaded with a S&P 500 type fund - she is holding for a devaluation of $67,000 but is unconcerned because she continues to buy more shares at a reduced price and has enough faith in her country to know that this slow period will pass and she'll be that much better off with more shares that will eventually appreciate.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I asked the wife last night to turn the television to a station where I could listen to Hillary make her all about herself speech. I had noticed the wife put me on the wrong station - I told her this looked like the Black Southern Baptist Convention and she politely informed me I was watching the DNC convention - well dah? Nobama for me. And then I saw the dead man walking....damn near freaked me out. Jimmy was there wearing his wide yellow stripe and picayune Bill was there with a tear in his eye - lots of dramatics. Frankly I've never seen such a ragamuffin bunch of people and I kept wondering why Michelle or Barack has not given any credit yet to the bountiful benefits of affirmative action seeing as they come from such blue collar humble backgrounds. There is no way my daughter could have been accepted into Princeton unless she was black - she had both the grades and the SAT scores. OK now you can all line up and take me to school.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'd prefer to pass the stocks on to the next generation where the step up in basis would eliminate any tax.

That's the most striking situation most of us eventually come to realize. We start with nothing and work our a$$ off to get ahead, and accumulate possessions over the years - avoiding debt and adding to our "next egg" as we can. We get so use to being thrifty that by the time we cross that bridge that seperates the struggling from those in ultra comfort it's pretty much impossible for us to "Blow it all and enjoy the end result".

So - many of us live on in our "comfortable thrifty lifestyle" with the hope of leaving the next generation the bulk to enjoy. Some will even use the same styoform cup (without washing it).

We should probably form a group to help each other out. Maybe have regular meetings where we can cheer each other on for spending and enjoying what we've accumulated. In all liklihood that was the driving goal all along - but it's hard to let it go.

Cayman is a good example - we need to get more like that Birch; as long as we keep it in check it can last forever.

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

...
We should probably form a group to help each other out. Maybe have regular meetings where we can cheer each other on for spending and enjoying what we've accumulated. In all liklihood that was the driving goal all along - but it's hard to let it go.

Cayman is a good example - we need to get more like that Birch; as long as we keep it in check it can last forever.

Consider me a member!

BTW, I checked my investment portfolio while I was on the ROK. It seems I'm half-Birch when it comes to B&H. I've branched the other half of my investments to be as I call it "Apache-driven". Since my grandmother was an Apache I get to use the "scalping method". I like it, and it keeps things interesting. I've been cashing in on the Forex situation since the IFTs tied my hands.

Birch, you are a feisty one and I wouldn't have you any other way. It keeps me honest.

Steady, you emphasize the live and let live mentality with your protecting words.

Thanks for the insightful inputs on the board to both of you!

Frixxxx

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From the print edition of TWSJ dated 8/25/08 by Joanna Slater "Historical Trends Suggest That the Buck Is Back".

"The record shows that major changes in the dollar's direction take time to unfold and rarely are smooth. In each case, the dollar reached a point of extreme weakness or strength before heading in the other direction. The current slide seems to follow that pattern: From its peak in 2001 until its low last month, the dollar lost nearly half of its value versus the euro, reaching a level that currency experts say is about 30% too cheap based on economic fundamentals.

Still, currencies are known to overshoot such theoretical targets, sometimes for long periods of time. At certain points, the cycle began changing only after governments intervened directly in the currency markets.

So far, there is no sign of such coordinated government intervention, which helped jolt the dollar into moving in different long term directions in 1985 and 1995, for instance. In 1985, government intervened to prevent a strong dollar from becoming stronger; in 1995, they did the opposite.

Capital flows also play a role in major turns in the dollar, as investors re-evaluate where to put their money around the globe. Around the time of the previous big shift in the dollar, the dot-com bubble popped and a U.S. recession followed. That proimpted the Federal Reserve to slice interest rates dramatically, making dollar denominated investments less enticing.

Now tentative signs have emerged that things are turning more positive for the buck on that front. There are stronher inflows coming into the U.S. in seasrch of bargains on mergers and acquisitions. The net total of such deal-related inflows now in the pipeline touched its highest point in seven years at the end of July, according to Bank of America.

At the same time, U.S. investors are no longer sending massive amounts of money abroad in searech of profits. Mutuakl funds that focus on investing abroad had net inflows of $9 billion in the first six months of this year, compared with more than $80 billion in the same period last year, according to the Inveswtment Company Institute.

Another possible positive for the dollar: Exports are rising, so the U.S. trade deficit is declining. In June, exports registered their largest monthly jump in more than four years. By making U.S. goods more competitive overtseas, the dollar's long weakness has helped to mitigate some of the large imbalances in the global economy."

The lesson from this story is that money is coming home and one should be prepared for the next leg of the continuing mega trend secular bull market by staying fully invested because the raging stampede can happen at any time especially when so many are so gloomy. The bigger risk is being out of the market, not being in.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Consider me a member!

Wow - that's a huge honor to both me and Birch.

I've got the Commander in Chief running the sheets: Balancing the cheekbook to the penny month after month; shifting accumulations to higher interest bearing accounts; paying all the bills (including the extra principal on each mortage payment); and borrowing from one account to pay the next year of college and then tuck away as much as she can to fill it back up over the next year.

This morning she set out $801.24 worth of receits for me to fax over to the Federal Savings Plan - which use pretax dollars to cover what your insurance doesn't pay for. I don't have dental (so that's the bulk with all 5 getting 6 month visits). Anyway I put in for $800 - so now I'll get it wired to my checking account.

I'm telling you all this because she is the one that would have the hardest time spending a lot of money. We are simply not natured to spend 2K a night somewhere - when we can rent a room for $40. So we will always stretch the money - because we'd rather go to the store and have homemade tasting food than eating out too much.

My investments are most B&H - I don't have many individual stocks but the ones I did get into to (Canada Oil Sands) 12 years prior; Exxon 10 years prior - I got way back before they soared. Most of mine are in Funds managed by people a thousand times over me and have done really well. China/Hong Kong - are gold mines when our economy stinks. So I dabble a little but not much.

95% of what I do is maintainence free - it's in the right places and I simply let it ride.

BTW, I checked my investment portfolio while I was on the ROK. It seems I'm half-Birch when it comes to B&H. I've branched the other half of my investments to be as I call it "Apache-driven". Since my grandmother was an Apache I get to use the "scalping method". I like it, and it keeps things interesting. I've been cashing in on the Forex situation since the IFTs tied my hands.

Birch, you are a feisty one and I wouldn't have you any other way. It keeps me honest.

Steady, you emphasize the live and let live mentality with your protecting words.

Thanks for the insightful inputs on the board to both of you!

Frixxxx

Thank you my friend - this is the most perfect way I could imagine to start the day. Much appreciated.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It looks like perhaps 85% of our tracker members are resting on the lily pad - that's classic for the game and if they sit afraid to move it will give us bottom waders a fighting chance to catch up. Long live the bearish mantra. It's definitely not safe enough to come out yet.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I did manage to slip in this morning and purchase some more FNM, FRE and ABK. I however, unfortunately will not be buying my C fund shares at $14.01 - what a bummer. I was so excited thinking I was going to make that golden low hit. It may actually cost me $15.00 depending on the close tomorrow. Ah you just can't win them all.