Birchtree's Account Talk

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=176266&postcount=10

"The NYSE Composite Index is not a widely followed market barometer, but in the current instance, its 'coiling' pattern of inside ranges is perhaps the most important pattern in the market to watch. How this pattern resolves itself - with either a breakout above 85.30 or a breafdown below 83.00 - should determine the next major move in the market." http://www.sandspring.com/charts2008/cdj081408.html

So Birch, the NYA closed below 83.00 today. What is that result saying to you about where C/SP500 is headed? S? Same for both? Worse for one of them but both same down direction? If worse for C, why? If worse for S, why?

I don't know how NYA performance relates to our TSP indices, a little explication would help a lot for us "juniors". How 'bout it?

 

[XL-entLady]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

So Birch, the NYA closed below 83.00 today. What is that result saying to you about where C/SP500 is headed? S? Same for both?

It was explained to me by someone in the know that the NYA is very broad-based, even including huge multi-national corporations. It is not limited to small-cap or large-cap, but has some of everything. If I am remembering the explanation correctly, that would mean that it would indicate that both C and S will break to the downside.

How did I do? :laugh:

Lady

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sweet Brown Sugar, for the bulls to take full control here, they will have to move the NYSE breadth MCSUM above the zero line and then take out the summation failure point of last July. We are currently sitting at -445 according to decision point. We have to move above the +100 level on the MCSUM and preferably above the +250 level. Above these levels an intermediate term uptrend is underway. Won't you ride the train with me? The longer the MCO's can stay above the zero line, the better the odds for the market to eventually break out of the well. Snort.

Big Birch (I say that with affection ) you are riding that bull hard and what's scares the hell out of me is getting on the back of that bear on the long side. Playing a little shorting and options cat and mouse game and making a little progress has made me a couple of bucks. The thing is when I was a young buck I could take a punch now the only thing I can do is drink punch - Hopefully the "spiced" kind so I trying to tip toe through these land mines.

I got to give you props - riding the C train at 100% takes some a big set so more power too you.

Again best too all and let's have a big bump by year end. :nuts:

By the way in London the fee where I was staying was 3k/night so I rented a flat and saved a bundle - at least the dollar is gaining some ground.

London makes New York City look cheap and i can't believe Moscow is still the most expensive city in the world for EVERYTHING!!!!!although one thing I noticed not to be too sexist was either you see girls that look like models or it appears the 1940's is back in style for the rest no disrespect intended. Go figure.:blink:

cayman ( I spent MCSUM ON THIS TRIP - I MEAN MEGA SUM :laugh

 

[luv2read]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Good to hear from you again Cayman!

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Good to hear from you again Cayman!

thanks luv2read - I appreciate it. By the by I am an avid reader as well if you user id is accurate so I do appreciate the good book from time to time when I have the time. You noticed we broke 1270 support on the S&P - things could get a little nefarious - wonder if it will bounce back because I am for sure not feeling so sanguine. :laugh:

Hey by the way how do you get all those green thingies by your name? I guess I just going to have to let my natural charms rise to the surface so maybe I can get a few more.


By the way picked up PMC a few months ago and it hasn't treated me too bad even in this environment so I guess you definitely have too look carefully to separate the chaff from the wheat.


cayman

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"I believe this pull back to be a contra trend at this time rather than an all out test of the July 15 lows. The trend line has likely broken to expand the current channel because the angle of ascents were too steep. There is still approximately a 10 month supply of homes. Contrary to popular belief, there is still only a 3% delinquence rate among homeowners."
I'm going to buy more LEH and AIG this afternoon with my cash.

http://thechartpatterntrader.com

 

[vectorman]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"I believe this pull back to be a contra trend at this time rather than an all out test of the July 15 lows. The trend line has likely broken to expand the current channel because the angle of ascents were too steep. There is still approximately a 10 month supply of homes. Contrary to popular belief, there is still only a 3% delinquence rate among homeowners."
I'm going to buy more LEH and AIG this afternoon with my cash.

http://thechartpatterntrader.com

Still looks good to me, Birch. Maybe another missed buying opportunity for some. Snort...Snort

View attachment 4488

 

[luv2read]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Contrary to popular belief, there is still only a 3% delinquence rate among homeowners."

http://thechartpatterntrader.com

Wrong. As of 6/5/08...and it's higher now.

The delinquency rate jumped to 6.35 percent in the first quarter, compared with 5.82 percent for the three months earlier. Payments are considered delinquent if they are 30 or more days past due.

Both the rate of new foreclosures and late payments were the highest on record going back to 1979.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/06/05/national/main4156776.shtml?source=related_story

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Crude oil now at $114.61 down $6.58 - that could give us a nice boost this afternoon - but that will only help those that have been foolish enough to ride this correction. Corporate insiders are still buying their stocks at an above average rate. It is bullish whenever the sell to buy ratio is lower than 2.5 to 1.0. The current ratio is 1.88 to 1 and the eight week average is 1.49 to 1.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"We have highlighted several times before that core CPI is likely at a cuclical peak: inflation lags economic growth by several quarters and the economy continues to slow. We still assign a very low probability to rising inflation on a cuclical basis, because wage costs failed to rise during the economic boom and are already rolling over substantially."

http://bankcreditanalyst.com U.S. Inflation: Soon to Erode.

Richard Russell is saying the markets are telling us to prepare for hard times, and a global spate of the worst deflation to be seen in generations.

 

[Gumby]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Crude oil now at $114.61 down $6.58 - that could give us a nice boost this afternoon -

I would have thought we could have had that elusive 400pt DOW climb on that news....didn't happen.:nuts:

 

[luv2read]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I would have thought we could have had that elusive 400pt DOW climb on that news....didn't happen.:nuts:

They already knew it and factored it in...financials and big oil dumped their hedges. Financials up...:cheesy:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Perhaps overdrive will kick come Monday. We'll most likely catch over 200 points today. I'm getting ready to do more stock buying - and when I do the question I often ask myself is if I buy a stock today, where will it be two or three years from now. That way even if the market hasn't hit bottom, and stocks continue to go lower in the next few months, I'm still coming in near the low, which is what buying low and selling high is all about. So I follow the one strategy most financial advisors agree on - when it comes to investing, think long-term and leave the market timing to the chicletts.

 

[Gumby]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

think long-term and leave the market timing to the chicletts.

I'll be a chiclett for now. I think there will be more buying opportunities at a lower level.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm feeling chiclett like and beating the S&P.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm feeling chiclett like and beating the S&P.

For those of us out of IFT's and in G or F, today is actually good I think. We don't want the relative bottom to come in the next week. Instead, todays rally may have slight follow through next week, before leveling off and going down again. In all likelihood the "going down again" part will take place after Sept. 1st.

During the last 3 days of rally, volume has been drying up each day. Today's volume was awfully low. Crude down 6 bucks had a huge impact on the market today. Buy target still < 1240 on S&P.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

For those of us out of IFT's and in G or F, today is actually good I think. We don't want the relative bottom to come in the next week. Instead, todays rally may have slight follow through next week, before leveling off and going down again. In all likelihood the "going down again" part will take place after Sept. 1st.

During the last 3 days of rally, volume has been drying up each day. Today's volume was awfully low. Crude down 6 bucks had a huge impact on the market today. Buy target still < 1240 on S&P.

I have noticed the volume too. Typical for this time of year and swinging. SDS would be a good buy for Monday.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"And the relative positions of the SPX and VXO in the last couple weeks are very telling. The SPX bounced out of mid-July, but its rally appears to be failing at its 50 dma (day moving average). The 50 dma is the most common point within ongoing bear downlegs where minor-bounce rallies peter out. This is in contrast to major bear-market rallies between downlegs, which tend to run all the way up to the 200 dma before failing." Perhaps not this time though.

http://safehaven.com/article-11050.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I will delight in collecting a $14.01 price for the C fund Friday if that is in the works, that's 57 shares for the kitty. The lowest price I've paid so far this year was $14.39. Yes, give me my $14.00 price and shut me up - very few think like I do and that's just fine because they are my shares and someday soon they will be worth a lot more. So if we retest the July bottom that is fine because the lower we go the more shares I buy - been here and done this before.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I take it Mindy Lou is still on her buy signal.