Birchtree's Account Talk

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The BPI (Bullish Percent index) went below 20% at the February lows - this condition is an intermediate term bullish sign. This bullish set up of stocks making lower lows and BPI makes a higher low (July 15th) occurred at the 1998 bottom and the 2002 bottom. The current positive divergence is much larger than the previous two bottoms and is a positive bullish sign. The market needs the large caps to lead the charge, but the small caps have shown some impressive strength across the board over the past few weeks - could be the kiss of death. The R2K advance/decline MCSUM is now above the zero line and has gained 1100 net points and has now equaled its October 2007 high. The NYSE breadth MCSUM is still trying to push through -500 on its way to the zero line. The run up in the dollar indicates that investors are seeing a light at the end of the tunnel for the beleaguered American economy. That means domestic consumption can pick up the slack as demand softens overseas. I'm going to hold my 30% position in the I fund.

I still see the I fund below $20 and when you compare it to the C Fund or S Fund those prices are more realistic so in my opinion I now see the I Fund with a potential drop lower than the S Fund. The S Fund has a range of $17.50 - $19.50 and now the I FUnd will soon have a range of $18.50 - $19.50. That is based upon all of the factors today. The I Fund could see $19.75 before next week is over. I thought and posted back on August 9th this fund appears to be in trouble with too much going against it and that within a month it would be below $20. On August 9 - The I Fund about $21.00 in 6 days it is really going down hill. It loks like a good buy but until Japan gets going it won't.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Elsewhere, Birchtree's Goddess has announced she's bailing on the I Fund tomorrow morning barring an upswing overseas by our time Monday noon. What do you see long term for the low of the I Fund? $16?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

YOU HAVE BEEN TAGGED BY THE ANTI-RALLY MONKEY BIRCH!

antimonkey.jpg

 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The best thing I saw was John McCain really showing who talks the talk and who has truely walked the walk. I thought Obama was stalling for a Harvard Graduate how many times did he say ahh ahh ahh umm umm while McCain showed how fast he was ready to pounce on every question. The Media can cheer for Obama and say how great he did but it was clear he got trounced by McCain.

A good week for McCain he jumped on Russia with powerful words even before the President and Obama really looked good in Hawaii and Bush in China.

Clearly Russia used the games as their chance to go after Georgia and that is why that ad it 3:00 AM and the phone rings major crisis who do you trust your family or your life with.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The BPI (Bullish Percent index) went below 20% at the February lows - this condition is an intermediate term bullish sign. This bullish set up of stocks making lower lows and BPI makes a higher low (July 15th) occurred at the 1998 bottom and the 2002 bottom. The current positive divergence is much larger than the previous two bottoms and is a positive bullish sign. The market needs the large caps to lead the charge, but the small caps have shown some impressive strength across the board over the past few weeks - could be the kiss of death. The R2K advance/decline MCSUM is now above the zero line and has gained 1100 net points and has now equaled its October 2007 high. The NYSE breadth MCSUM is still trying to push through -500 on its way to the zero line. The run up in the dollar indicates that investors are seeing a light at the end of the tunnel for the beleaguered American economy. That means domestic consumption can pick up the slack as demand softens overseas. I'm going to hold my 30% position in the I fund.
BirchBiden,
Mix in a personal comment or 2 and you can seem like all of this statement is yours. Birchtree, your misrepresentation is legendary here and it just keeps on going. Don't worry though Birch, the sheep will still believe it's "your " data. Oh yeah, to you it doesn't matter where the facts come from. Keep on stealin Biden.....er....I mean......Birch.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ain't she sweet just a walkin down the street, now I ask you confidentially ain't she sweet. All one has to do is go to decisionpoint.com and look at the graphs - it's mostly self explanatory. Thanks again for the recognition and attention - you keep me relevant.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ain't she sweet just a walkin down the street, now I ask you confidentially ain't she sweet. All one has to do is go to decisionpoint.com and look at the graphs - it's mostly self explanatory. Thanks again for the recognition and attention - you keep me relevant.

All one has to do is post the source. Not relate it like it's their own which you notoriously do. Keep blazin' those trails Birch, the sheep will follow.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sugarandspite,

A few posts back Warrenlm defined you as a Goddess - little does he know that you two are simply misanthropics but that's OK with me. Did you know that the shortest bull market in commodities lasted 15 years and the longest bull market lasted 23 years. So if history is any guide, this bull market is going to last until sometime between 2014 and 2022. Sure hope you participate.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sugarandspite,

A few posts back Warrenlm defined you as a Goddess - little does he know that you two are simply misanthropics but that's OK with me. Did you know that the shortest bull market in commodities lasted 15 years and the longest bull market lasted 23 years. So if history is any guide, this bull market is going to last until sometime between 2014 and 2022. Sure hope you participate.

I could care less about any names people here refer to me as. And where can we find those stats....yours or someone else's? Oh yeah, you don't care where the facts come from, only getting the credit for them. Never mind. Keep up the good work..er....due diligence..er....fact finding...er.....research...er.....copy and pasting other peoples work. Don't worry Birch, the sheep will follow.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Uh, I did not intend to step into the conversation between you two "gents". "Goddess" is the name for Sarah Oz that Birchtree used awhile ago when I brought her up in a question. This time, what I said she said had been posted in her group on yahoo and I wondered about it, since several here knew her when and it was the first time I had seen her waver on the I Fund.... Okay back to your conversation, sorry for the interruption.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The one who's name is not spoken. There are other names but we will not explore them.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well that was my mistake in my understanding. I checked the tracker to see if sugarandspite had made an IFT out of the I fund position. I know she never makes a decision fortuitously but there are times when her sense of turgidity may interfere. I stand corrected in the term Goddess.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Let's do a little Donkey politics. If you are a liberal be warned the following is not pretty and you should not read my comments.
"Edwards is Kennedyesque at handling sleaze charges. The good news: DNA testing has confirmed that John Edwards is not the father of Rielle Hunter's baby. The bad news: The father is Bill Clinton - just kidding.
Also, by now, everyone has heard the news that Edwards' mistress, Rielle Hunter, has refused to grant a paternity test.
I wonder if Edwards knew that when he was making his offer to take a paternity test?
With Hunter in on the scam, Edwards could boldly demand a paternity test and then self-righteously defend his mistress's decision to refuse a paternity test. How dare you gainsay this woman's right to her privacy! Because if there's one person who's gone the extra mile to keep Hunter from becoming a public figure, iy's Edwards.
Edwards is closely following the Ted Kennedy model of responding to charges of misconduct.
First, admit only as much as can be currently proved.
Second, get the other party to block any further investigation. I guess he really is 'Kennedyesque'.
After Kennedy plunged his car off the Chappaquiddick Bridge with Mary Jo Kopechne in it and then failed to report the accident for nine hours, Kennedy admitted he had driven off the bridge - but said he was in a state of shock for the next nine hours, preventing him from reporting the submerged car with a woman trapped in it."
I always knew this piece of trash was guilty of more - please don't read anymore if you are a left leaning liberal, please. He had to have time to sober up.
"Indeed, Kennedy was so disoriented he was barely able to dream up a highly unlikely alibi.
The historical parallel to Edwards' pincer move with Hunter is that Kennedy ostentatiously demanded a full investigation - while the Kopechne family stoutly objected to an autopsy of their dayghter."
AT this point IMHO Kennedy is no better than O.J. Simpson.
"According to Senatorial Privilege by Lro Damore, the evidence suggested that Kopechne died gasping for breath in the car while Kennedy was busy trying to persuade various people to say that they were driving his car.
There were lots of houses neareby with lights on, but Kennedy avoided them after he escaped from the car, so he could sneak back to his hotel undetected and begin establishing an alibi. Evidently, Kennedy is better than Edwards at sneaking into and out of hotels.
If Kopechne had suffocated, then she had been alive for hours after the car plunged into the water. But an autopsy was required to determine whether Kopechne had drowned or suffocated.

Both the coroner and the diver who retrieved the body from the car believed Kopechne had suffocated, not drowned. The diver found her body contorted in the back of the submerged car as if she had been trying to press her face into the last air pocket in the car. The coroner concluded there wasn't enough water in her body to indicate a drowning.
But no autopsy was performed in a possible manslaughter case. Kopechne was buried within about an hour of her body being pulled out of the channel under the Chappaquiddick Bridge.
Naturally, Kennedy wanted a thorough investigation - to clear his name - but the Kopechnes absolutely refused to consent to an autopsy of their daughter."

After all these years I still wonder what the pay off amounted to. Karma will finally intervene when the Devil finally catches this piece of sh*t - and I wish it were tomorrow.

This came from an article in the Florida Times-Union on 8/17/08 written by Ann Coulter.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

As far as I'm concerned all three of the Kennedy boys lived ignominious lives - Camelot never existed. And Barack Obama will not get elected. Did you happen to see his performance at the Saddleback Forum - smooth and full of fluff. He never said anything I understood. He was careful not to mention his 20 year history with his Chicago church and his pastor mentor. What a rogue.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"A stronger dollar, if sustained over a longer term, could put the U.S. economy on shakier ground by raising the cost of exports. Without the improving U.S. trade position, the U.S. economy would have contracted in the second quarter. Exports grew at a robust 9% annual rate during the quarter, helped along by cumulative effects of the dollar's weakening in recent years.
Several economists said it was too soon to declare the U.S. export boom over. Despite the dollar's recent gains, it has a long way to go to return to levels seen at the start of the decade, The greenback is still 44% lower versus the euro than it was in October 2000, when the euro was worth only 83 U.S. cents. The dollar is also 23% weaker than it was against the pound back then, and is 16% below where it traded against the yen at the end of 2001.
Moreover, some economists see more room for export growth in developing countries. Emerging markets are worth $10 trillion and are growing at a 5% annual rate, which could help keep the export boom going, if at a slower pace.
The euro had gotten to the point that on a fundamental basis it was overvalued by 30%. The European Central Bank has been preoccupied with inflation. While a stronger dollar could take some pressure off commodity prices, it could raise the cost of other goods imported to Europe."
I wouldn't abandon the I fund just yet.

http://online.wsj.com/public/us
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sweet Brown Sugar, for the bulls to take full control here, they will have to move the NYSE breadth MCSUM above the zero line and then take out the summation failure point of last July. We are currently sitting at -445 according to decision point. We have to move above the +100 level on the MCSUM and preferably above the +250 level. Above these levels an intermediate term uptrend is underway. Won't you ride the train with me? The longer the MCO's can stay above the zero line, the better the odds for the market to eventually break out of the well. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"So what's the deal with the Russell 2000? It's also above its 200 day moving average line - well above it. The problem is, it's stochastically overbought too. That doesn't necessarily have to be a problem if it weren't for one thing - the R2K's rally was also stopped cold at a previous significant peak. Friday's peak of 764.38 basically matched June's high of 763.27 (dashed). After observing this second encounter with resistance and a third encounter with support at 650, you could make a good argument that the index is on a trading range. If it is, we'll know soon enough - possibly Monday. More importantly, if it is range bound, the index is likely headed south."

http://bigtrends.com/document.jsp?documentid=3907
 
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