Birchtree's Account Talk

[malyla]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just what did he get promised after Bush's campaign played McCain dirty during the 2000 primary race? Disclaimer: I voted for McCain in the 2000 primary race. I will not vote for him today!

Oops - Make that the 2000 primary race. Time is flying faster than I can keep up with it.

 

[Silverbird]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My mistake, the last 4 years looked so much like the 4 prior I didn't realize it had been that long since I had voted for McCain.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Financials are being crushed again - especially FRE and FNM. That has taken the rest of the market down. Banks in the S&P 500 are trading at an average of 1.2 times their book value, and diversified financial firms - which includes brokers - are at 1.4 times. That is the lowest price to book ratio since late 1991. Given such valuations on financials, in the short run it is possible to have a sizable rally. They don't have to get back to the sort of earnings levels that we saw several years ago to be good stocks from here. I may be forced to double down on some of my recent purchases which I'm fully prepared to do. A lot of these financials have already priced in systemic risk. The downturn has been so great that even if we get part of the way back it will be a real positive.

 

[CountryBoy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

McCain was further away from the Reps in 2004 than he is now, now he's going to keep all those Bush tax cuts, stay in Iraq, support free trade agreements, lower taxes (raise debt) and he's always been opposed abortion and gay marriage. That's not a Dem. Even in 2004 he wasn't a Dem; I thought he was a fiscal conservative so I voted for him. Definately now he isn't a fiscal conservative, or a Dem. He's trying to look like a Rep but he probably isn't one of those either, he's his own brand of Independent I guess; and I'm rather p.oed at him since he now wants to spend money and not pay for anything.

Hey Silverbird,

He does have some Rep characteristics, I guess maybe I'm dating myself, but he sure reminds me more of the old fashion 60's democrat, than a conservative small government, small spending republican. It's getting so ya can't hardly tell any of them apart. The 60's Dems were against gay marriage and abortion also. The old fashion Dem, ie Lieberman, gets thrown under the bus for expressing differing ideas to the party of toleerance and free speech.

He's only trying to act like a republican because us conservatives are ticked off at him and Bush for that matter for all of his spending. Remember he voted against the tax cuts first, before he voted for them. For that matter, I doubt if Bush would carry the conservatives, especially the fiscal conservatives.

Oh well, I try not to get to involved or worked up, since we have so little say anymore and it ain't good for my blood pressure. I'm just trying to protect my retirement funds.

See ya,
CB

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bring the market down and get the pain over with. Emotions are contrarian indicators. Actions that make us feel good are usually a lot less profitable than the ones that make us feel bad or stupid. The best trades are usually painful. I suspose that I have to admit that my timing was wrong, or maybe my whole idea was wrong. But I'll continue to hold my positions and add more stocks to my oceanic account and continue my accumulation of the C fund while pricing is cheap. New members to federal employment should see this market weakness as a golden opportunity to accumulate shares and the longer the weakness lasts the happier they should be - don't buy the G fund - take some risk and get the C and S fund.

If the Industrials rebound to close above 13,058.20 and the Transports close above 5492.95, the bullish trend would be reconfirmed. What's the chance of that with all the dark clouds - I think there is an excellent chance we could rocket from these levels. With a close below 4398.97 in the Transports, both the Industrials and Transports would be trading below prior significant lows - and the validity of April's bull market signal would have to be questioned.

 

[Braveheart]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bring the market down and get the pain over with. Emotions are contrarian indicators. Actions that make us feel good are usually a lot less profitable than the ones that make us feel bad or stupid. The best trades are usually painful. I suspose that I have to admit that my timing was wrong, or maybe my whole idea was wrong. But I'll continue to hold my positions and add more stocks to my oceanic account and continue my accumulation of the C fund while pricing is cheap. New members to federal employment should see this market weakness as a golden opportunity to accumulate shares and the longer the weakness lasts the happier they should be - don't buy the G fund - take some risk and get the C and S fund.

If the Industrials rebound to close above 13,058.20 and the Transports close above 5492.95, the bullish trend would be reconfirmed. What's the chance of that with all the dark clouds - I think there is an excellent chance we could rocket from these levels. With a close below 4398.97 in the Transports, both the Industrials and Transports would be trading below prior significant lows - and the validity of April's bull market signal would have to be questioned.

I think today is D - Day and we see the panic that takes the Dow below 11000.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I agree. McCain is scary in his 180 degree turn from his stand 4+ years ago. And what happened to his face? He looks like he's been botoxed. Modern day Frankenstein’s monster except that it's the Republican party that is his maker. Just what did he get promised after Bush's campaign played McCain dirty during the 2004 primary race? Disclaimer: I voted for McCain in the 2004 primary race. I will not for him today!

Continuing to hijack Dennis' financial thread, I'll ask a question because I think I don't understand the above. It seems that you won't vote for McCain, but it does not seem that you are favorable for Obama?

The choice this November is between Obama and a heavily Democratic Congress, perhaps with less than 40 seats for Republicans in the Senate (and what that means for laws and new entitlements (that will not go away) in the first two years), and McCain with a heavily Democratic Congress. One or the other is going to happen. Nader, nor Barr, nor anyone else, will happen. Anyone who fails to choose, cedes their vote to another.

 

[Silverbird]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Shrug. Voting for Obama because at least he's not going to cut taxes at the same time he's increasing expenses. McCain will have to continue to defer payment on expenses on the wars through supplemental budgets if he cuts taxes and wants to continue both of the wars, and as I said earlier, I'm rathe p.oed at him for changing his stance completely on balanced budgets. As for cutting the Federal budget, the cuts these days seem to be in the wrong places (FDA, for instance), contractors have not proven to be cheaper or more effective than bureaucrats, and as long as the wars are on supplementals everyone can pretend that we have a balanced budget while overspending.

We're in a hole; these days the other countries aren't buying bonds as much as they used to; if we continue the way we are going the dollar is only going to be good for wallpaper. At least Obama admits we have to pay for this stuff.

As for Democrats vs Republicans, as I said in another thread, over the last 6 years only the Neo-Conservatives were allowed in the Republican party, and those guys can't add. Our Virginia Senator worked for the Nixon administration, yes I'm talking about Webb. Something wrong when he has to run as a Democrat simply because he thinks the wars in Iraq and Afganistan need to be managed better. The Blue Dog Democrats are back, no thanks to Bush; they were happy being Republicans since they are conservative, but they got forced back into the Democratic tent. Woof.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

New members to federal employment should see this market weakness as a golden opportunity to accumulate shares and the longer the weakness lasts the happier they should be - don't buy the G fund - take some risk and get the C and S fund.

Your "strategy" is best suited for stock buyers. People relying solely on TSP have better options than to ride the market down no matter what while listening to your cheerleading about how your contrarian outlook will somehow lift the market out of the ashes. Your rebel attitude towards the obvious problems is good for your ego but bad advice.


"Money talks and Bull$--t walks."----Daddy Rich from the movie Car Wash

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sugar,

The possibility exists that we could easily have a V shaped recovery that projects a parabolic move back to the May peak and beyond. The last recovery from the March lows was nine weeks - the next move could be done in two weeks. There is just so much liquidity available and even more now that hedge funds are selling off commodity stocks. This money is not going to sit in money markets for very long. I noticed one of our $700K members went 50% C and 50% S looking to make an $80K hit. You simply have to be in to win and be able to take the body punches when they come along. I bought a bunch of bank stocks with a blindfold on - knowing full well that I won't make any profit on these stocks for perhaps three years. My tugboat account will actually take care of itself because I won't take that money for another ten years and while prices are low I wish I could do even more DCAing but I'm limited by regulation. So I buy where the potential is the best and that means tracking the value. I have companies in my oceanic (close to 300 stocks) increasing their dividends all the time - now that is what I call sweet brown sugar.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just completed a few more purchases: DSX, DOW, DRE, DUK, BRC, BDN, BWP. Can the market do 6,000 points in six months - that's my bet.

 

[Gumby]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Can the market do 6,000 points in six months - that's my bet.

I'll take that bet.

 

[malyla]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'll take that bet.

I will not. It smells like a BULL Trap! The bears are smiling and they will be smiling for another 18 months. Yes, there will be a few short (short) rallys, but the bears are in control. Protect your retirement (for anyone who has less than 300K AT GREATER THAN 10 YEARS TO RETIREMENT). Anyone with substantially more that 300k and nearing retirement (by ~2015), you know what to do...(oh, come on ... Capital Preservation). Follow the (proven) people who are in your same predicament (years to retirement plus approximate amount in TSP) and you may make it through this Bear Market Corn Maze. Don't buy into the optimistic permabull attitude. It will be short lived. Looking to 2011 for permabull resumption. KEEP YOUR TAIL!

G.L.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Although harder, money can be made in a Bear Market.
I'm no permabull, but I'm a risk taker. Lets hope for a
3% move tomarrow and let the Bear hibernate for a day.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm reminded once again as a longer term investore that bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. Liquidity is the difference between what could be a crash like event and what is just an emotional reaction.

 

[Braveheart]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm reminded once again as a longer term investore that bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. Liquidity is the difference between what could be a crash like event and what is just an emotional reaction.

I feel safer walking down a back alley in NYC in the dark yelling hello I have a bag full of money then I do in this market. LOL :nuts:

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Creepy place in here. A few free thinkers on the hit and run...but most just standing around anonymously with a robotic stare upward towards a red, white and blue podium waiting for someone to tell them the Kool-Aid is ready. I brought my own beverage.Good thing sheep are so obedient.....that way you can keep delivering the rah rah's to them and they will never know what hit them. It must be a true blessing to be on the inner circle and have access to your paid financial wisdom.

 

[WIND_HUNTER]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You people crack me up and I'm not supposed to be laughing this hard at work. The light you're seeing at the end of the tunnel is the train. GET OUT OF THE WAY FOR GODS SAKE!!!!........:nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You may think getting out of the way is the correct posture but I'm planning on doing some more buying while the opportunity is available - and my dividened reinvestments are really working hard for the portfolio at these depressed levels. I don't mind the pain because my diversification provides a certain level of support. At my age wasting money is my privilege kinda like spending the kids inheritance.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Another give back day, no surprise there. But here is something interesting, at least to me, the Transports are only off 83.67 when yesterday they were up 235.73 - also, the Utilities are now only 32.92 points away from their all-time highs at 552.74. This market wants everyone to get out - that's not for me. I like buying at the bottom of the well - don't worry I've done this many, many times over the last 30 or so years. The world is not ending and this sell off will end at some point in time. Be in to win - but suggest to quiet things down that no one follow my trail. I own the holy grail which I earned over many years of investing and it will be my savior. I still have some stocks that are posting new all-time highs in this supposed bear market - good thing eh? Snort.