Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I recently bought 63 individual stock positions and now find myself low on cash - anyone want to lend me some of their G money? Financial armageddon for banks in the South East down an astounding 70.53% (as a collective) and now reaching the lowest values seen since 1996 - 12 years ago. I've seen this movie before. Being wrong comes with the franchise of an activity whose outcome depends on an unknown future. But the future always has gotten better over time - so I'll be back to buying more banks next week after I raise some cash. I find it's best to remain cool and collected regarding this market - this is not 2000-2002. Four out of ten S&P 500 sectors showed earnings revisions to the upside in June. I'm trying to remain creative.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch - as your kid brother I want you to know that I really appreciate the fact you never act like a pussy. I mean honestly - you definately represent everything I could ever want in a big brother. I appreciate your influence and solid support.

Later my friend.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Praise be to Allah - take my head but leave the money. Today sure felt and smelled like a panic capitulation by the hedge funds dumping their profit movers in steel, agriculture, coal, and energy. I've scanned my portfolio and have selected a couple of sales to raise cash so that I can fully endure this pain by increasing my level of stock buying - I'm prepared to drop into the well not knowing where the bottom may rest but I know the world is not ending tomorrow. Silly me, I've actually added a few more names to my buy list. This panic stuff is old hat to me - I prefer to take the body blows and keep on nibbling. I've got 23 individual stocks paying their dividends this month and my TSP will kick in 56 shares of the C fund tomorrow. What kind of temperment is needed to be a good investor. Tenacity is vital. So is patience. And so, too, is an ability to keep some perspective. Rock on Ferdinand.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just finished my buying for today and it wasn't pretty: TEN, NHYDY, MAS, LPX, LBY, KMGB, HHS, GB, ELX, CSS, KRO, BIP, WGO, KNL, KEY, KBH, JNY, HUN, HD, HXL, HPC, GXP, GT, GGC, GMR, GCI, FLO, FLE, FHN, FCF, moreFBP, FAF, FNB, FFG, EBF, CEM, CSK, COA, CNS, CNB, CBU, CUZ, that leaves me with an empty pocket until next week. I still have about 20 more wall flowers that are waiting in line to be admitted into the warmth of a kind and generous portfolio.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I forgot to mention where I got the money to do all that buying - and no I didn't steal it. I liquidated my position in BAYRY at $82.55, TRA at $44.59 and my WLL at $102.50 - it's a good thing I have an inhouse banker, I may need her to help pay my taxes next year. At any rate if we continue to correct downward I'll be forced to continue my buying strategy. I have done this year after year for many, many years. It's all part of the game that the market provides these value opportunities. No fear here even after the hit I took yesterday - I'm relying on my holy grail of diversification to keep me a float.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We are approaching the 9/06 support level on the SPX - I bought that low then and I'm currently buying this low, again. We are definitely in the buy zone - and if I'm the lonely buyer that is fine with me, that's my truly contrarian nature to the point of being a renegade. During the recession of 1989-1991, 25% of the financial universe disappeared. Thus far, in the midst of what is an entirely more problematic credit crisis, only 8% has evaporated. And now the Fed is saying there has actually been less borrowing from its' window by investment banks - that could be a sign that stability is slowly returning to the credit markets. The dollar is off 37% since 2002 and a stunning 97% since 1913.

"The June ISM survey highlighted thar U.S. manufacturing activity is holding up despite the deterioration in domestic demand - we can thanbk the lower dollar. The ISM survey highlighted the ongoing huge divergence between export and import orders. Adding it up, the overall manufacturing sector is only in a mild slowdown phase, although the risks will stay on the downside until the consumer retrenchment is further advanced and/or some relief from soaring commodity prices arrives."

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com

 

[malyla]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We are approaching the 9/06 support level on the SPX - I bought that low then and I'm currently buying this low, again. We are definitely in the buy zone - and if I'm the lonely buyer that is fine with me, that's my truly contrarian nature to the point of being a renegade.

Birch,
Almost everytime I read you I think of the fable The Fox Who Lost His Tail

http://www.circumstitions.com/Fox.html

I do hope your right but gut (Bush's moral compass) says otherwise. We will be lower soon.

G.L.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The dollar is off 37% since 2002 and a stunning 97% since 1913.

The dollar of 1913 was backed by gold. The dollar of today is monopoly money.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

malyla,

When the Dow put in its January low my primary account was light to the tune of $300K - I came within $40K of getting it all back at the May high. Now at this current low I'm only light to the tune of $224K - so that's actually an improvement. Since I've been heavily buying any upside should return me to whole and probably then some but that is the risk I'm willing to take to get these adorable lower prices. There are times when the sacrifice is appropriate. This next rally could be parabolic something similar to the oil charts.

The average stock in the S&P 500 is currently down over 25% from its 52 week high, while the average stock in the S&P 1500 is down closer to 30% - who needs to wait for the 20% threshold for a bear market. The good news is that bear markets usually don't last as long as bull markets and when they begin to recover, they tend to come back quickly, often within 12 months. If you've got the stomach for it, bad times can be a good time to invest. I'm actually at my best when I'm breathing through a straw at the bottom of a deep well - and after yesterday I feel like I was finally hit by the train. Now I'm refreshed and ready to go again. No pain means no gain - be right and sit tight.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

birch,
Almost Everytime I Read You I Think Of The Fable The Fox Who Lost His Tail
http://www.circumstitions.com/fox.html

The Fox Who Lost His Tail...!
Roflmao !

 

[Braveheart]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Imagine the DowJones back below 10000 or back to 9000. I never thought it could happen but now since the Fed killed the market it is a real possibility. When I hear we are near bottom that is nuts.

One has to wonder there are very few sectors trying to hold the market up and too many tearing it apart and dragging it down. We might see some short rally but that will be just enough for the big boys to completely unload. How can the S & P 500 make any gains when the financials are getting pounded every week. How many companies can survive when no one is buying their goods.

Oil out of control, people are going bankrupt and so is big business. Anyone actually believe the unemployment rate is really 5.5% it is more like 10% to 15%. Home values are crashing and soon there will be bread lines because many people have lost everything. The price of food is exploding so where do you turn. The dollar is worthless and some say invest in the Foreign Markets as if those markets are making big money right now because this is a world wide problem.

I wonder how many people will just keep what little cash they have left. I don't believe there are many waiting to invest in a Market that looks like the Titanic. The Great Ship that could not sink is sinking again I have my life vest with my family and will not put them in danger. If I stay in the G Fund for 2 years no big deal. :worried:

Everyone wants to get rich but how many are willing to die trying to prove they are strong like bull. - Be careful there are sharks in the water and the ship is sunk.

Best of Luck to All - Have a great 4th ---Braveheart

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I certainly agree there is a lot more downside potential. When I did my "poll" the other day for what level people are looking to "bounce" out at, I was actually the lowest (target = S&P 1320) and even that looks iffy at the moment...at least in the near term. I'm glad I still have 50% out of the market. At this point, I would rather sell my other half than buy more, but, at some point the market will be too low to resist buying more. I wanna see 1100's.

There are some major problems, all of which need to be resolved in order for us to get back to a bull market...

This all started with the "credit crunch", brought about from the housing market busting, which was brought about by ultra low interest rates and abuse. Years of free money...you can't beat that! But now there is another fundamental problem...eroded earnings potential due to inflation and oil prices. Unfortunately, it is all feeding on itself and we are like a submarine that is sinking fast. Eventually, the weight of the ocean will crush it, and everyone on board will die.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I don't know Corepuncher, I keep looking at the S&P500 chart and see
an opportunity for a short term bounce that could be very profitable.

Should the darn thing drop as you say, I see no bottom. I fully agree
that there is just so much to fix out there, the Bull won't be seen for
quite a long time. By the way, love the Submarine vs. Bear Pic.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just realized I have two other stocks that are on the buy out list: Grey Wolf (GW) and Chemtura (CEM). This will provide cash if I need to dive again - I still have 20 stocks on my buy list, perhaps this week I'll take'em.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Man, what kind of fool would be buying recreational vehicle stocks in this environment? Me.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You posted this sentence in another thread but it's such a good summary I thought I'd repost it here.

Birchtree: What discourages me is to see all these fools out there lining up behind Obama thinking he is going to give them a free gas card so they can get to Wal-Mart and spend their welfare checks.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

For the first time ever, I will be forced to vote for a Democrat. I'm voting for McCain. (the other is a socialist).

 

[CountryBoy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

For the first time ever, I will be forced to vote for a Democrat. I'm voting for McCain. (the other is a socialist).

I agree Corepiuncher, I've been saying that for months. We have 2 parties now, the Dems and Socialists.

CB

 

[Silverbird]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I agree Corepiuncher, I've been saying that for months. We have 2 parties now, the Dems and Socialists.

CB

McCain was further away from the Reps in 2004 than he is now, now he's going to keep all those Bush tax cuts, stay in Iraq, support free trade agreements, lower taxes (raise debt) and he's always been opposed abortion and gay marriage. That's not a Dem. Even in 2004 he wasn't a Dem; I thought he was a fiscal conservative so I voted for him. Definately now he isn't a fiscal conservative, or a Dem. He's trying to look like a Rep but he probably isn't one of those either, he's his own brand of Independent I guess; and I'm rather p.oed at him since he now wants to spend money and not pay for anything.

 

[malyla]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

McCain was further away from the Reps in 2004 than he is now, he's going to keep all those Bush tax cuts, stay in Iraq, support free trade agreements, lower taxes (raise debt) and he's still opposes abortion and gay marriage. That's not a Dem. Even in 2004 he wasn't a Dem.

I agree. McCain is scary in his 180 degree turn from his stand 4+ years ago. And what happened to his face? He looks like he's been botoxed. Modern day Frankenstein’s monster except that it's the Republican party that is his maker. Just what did he get promised after Bush's campaign played McCain dirty during the 2004 primary race? Disclaimer: I voted for McCain in the 2004 primary race. I will not for him today!