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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
We should all be aware and understand the fact that we are going to see frightening retracements the higher up we go. Bull markets do not like company and the higher we go the stiffer the pullbacks will be to make sure that not everyone is participating as we continue to move higher and higher. We've seen large moves in bearish sentiment with little or no decay in price. We are able to rally and continue to generate strong bearish sentiment levels as we continue to climb - this is classic third wave action. Bearish sentiment should climb as we continue to rally and this will then abruptly shift in the opposite direction - this is the backbone of what causes the epicenter of 3's. What we want to maintain is the discipline to always be looking for change before the majority realizes what's going on. In an uptrend we/re looking for bearish divergence - lack of money flow etc, in a downtrend we're looking for the building blocks of a rally. Only in third waves can such occurrences happen where breadth of market makes higher and higher highs. Stay tuned. In the bigger scheme of things it really doesn't matter whether it's of Primary or Cycle degree for we're going to see numbers on the upside that are going to dwarf anything you might imagine.
As Richard Russell said a while back: "We saw something that is extremely rare (on April 20 and April 25, '07), in fact I can't remember ever having seen this before. What I'm referring to is that on those two dates all three Dow Jones Averages - Industrials, Transports, and Utilities - closed at simultaneous historic highs. To me, a fellow steeped in Dow Theory for over a half a century, this was a clap of thunder. My take on the situation is that the stock market (and Dow Theory) told us that an unprecedented world boom lies ahead".
Seems to be a lot of disbelief in the rising trend. It seems strange to be bullish and perceived as a contrarian at this juncture but I'll proudly wear my scarlet letter. The markets wall of worry is firmly in place. It looks like we are about to move into a higher and more aggressive gear to the upside. We are overextended but we are overextended in Primary 3 which means we can remain so for a long time. It's not a coincidence that the current uptrend started in March 2003. That was a major cycle low. Are we now at another major cycle low of March 22, '08 that will reproduce the gains of the last 4 years into March 2011? All aboard....the train is leaving. Snort.
We should all be aware and understand the fact that we are going to see frightening retracements the higher up we go. Bull markets do not like company and the higher we go the stiffer the pullbacks will be to make sure that not everyone is participating as we continue to move higher and higher. We've seen large moves in bearish sentiment with little or no decay in price. We are able to rally and continue to generate strong bearish sentiment levels as we continue to climb - this is classic third wave action. Bearish sentiment should climb as we continue to rally and this will then abruptly shift in the opposite direction - this is the backbone of what causes the epicenter of 3's. What we want to maintain is the discipline to always be looking for change before the majority realizes what's going on. In an uptrend we/re looking for bearish divergence - lack of money flow etc, in a downtrend we're looking for the building blocks of a rally. Only in third waves can such occurrences happen where breadth of market makes higher and higher highs. Stay tuned. In the bigger scheme of things it really doesn't matter whether it's of Primary or Cycle degree for we're going to see numbers on the upside that are going to dwarf anything you might imagine.
As Richard Russell said a while back: "We saw something that is extremely rare (on April 20 and April 25, '07), in fact I can't remember ever having seen this before. What I'm referring to is that on those two dates all three Dow Jones Averages - Industrials, Transports, and Utilities - closed at simultaneous historic highs. To me, a fellow steeped in Dow Theory for over a half a century, this was a clap of thunder. My take on the situation is that the stock market (and Dow Theory) told us that an unprecedented world boom lies ahead".
Seems to be a lot of disbelief in the rising trend. It seems strange to be bullish and perceived as a contrarian at this juncture but I'll proudly wear my scarlet letter. The markets wall of worry is firmly in place. It looks like we are about to move into a higher and more aggressive gear to the upside. We are overextended but we are overextended in Primary 3 which means we can remain so for a long time. It's not a coincidence that the current uptrend started in March 2003. That was a major cycle low. Are we now at another major cycle low of March 22, '08 that will reproduce the gains of the last 4 years into March 2011? All aboard....the train is leaving. Snort.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"U.S. Capital Markets Have Rebound Room. The relative bear phase in U.S. capital stocks is likely over. Bottom line: Stay overweight the S&P capital markets group."
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com
"U.S. Capital Markets Have Rebound Room. The relative bear phase in U.S. capital stocks is likely over. Bottom line: Stay overweight the S&P capital markets group."
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com
not_too_shabby
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 1
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Are you not worried about the greenback dramatically reversing course causing the I to lag the C fund on its way to $27?
Are you not worried about the greenback dramatically reversing course causing the I to lag the C fund on its way to $27?
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I guess I am a little slow ... are you suggesting that if we are out of the USMs, then we should get in? Or are you saying that there will be a downturn before the market takes off again?
I guess I am a little slow ... are you suggesting that if we are out of the USMs, then we should get in? Or are you saying that there will be a downturn before the market takes off again?
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The dollar will slowly get stronger over the next three years so there is no rush to exit the I fund - the internationals are still strong and are destined to continue their growth. I believe we'll see a $27.00 price at some point in the near future.
The dollar will slowly get stronger over the next three years so there is no rush to exit the I fund - the internationals are still strong and are destined to continue their growth. I believe we'll see a $27.00 price at some point in the near future.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Dr. Faustus,
I believe we have seen our cyclical correction bottom and now the mega trend secular bull market will continue. I'm suggesting that one has to be in to win. Waiting for a lower entry point may come but only at ever higher price levels. I bet there are plenty of investors who liquidated their stocks along the November - March decline and are now wondering why they did such a silly thing as that. The buy and hold strategy that got them into that mess now seems to be working perfectly, now that they're no longer in the game. Be right and sit tight.
Dr. Faustus,
I believe we have seen our cyclical correction bottom and now the mega trend secular bull market will continue. I'm suggesting that one has to be in to win. Waiting for a lower entry point may come but only at ever higher price levels. I bet there are plenty of investors who liquidated their stocks along the November - March decline and are now wondering why they did such a silly thing as that. The buy and hold strategy that got them into that mess now seems to be working perfectly, now that they're no longer in the game. Be right and sit tight.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I met with an economics advisor yesterday (not professionally) and of the many things we talked about - the dollar gaining strength was one of our main topics.
I agree Birch - it will get stronger and as it does the cost of Oil will go down. Too many miss the reality of a strong dollar versus a weak one in regards to Oil (let alone a stronger economy).
Anyway this guy will probably be based in Germany - more plugged into the European (Global) Sector. He's working on a theory (economic program) that may have the same level of impact that Nash had. Time will tell; but like he said someone like Nash only comes along every 50 years.
I met with an economics advisor yesterday (not professionally) and of the many things we talked about - the dollar gaining strength was one of our main topics.
I agree Birch - it will get stronger and as it does the cost of Oil will go down. Too many miss the reality of a strong dollar versus a weak one in regards to Oil (let alone a stronger economy).
Anyway this guy will probably be based in Germany - more plugged into the European (Global) Sector. He's working on a theory (economic program) that may have the same level of impact that Nash had. Time will tell; but like he said someone like Nash only comes along every 50 years.
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Just curious since I haven't seen you state for some time, what are your allocations in the TSP? I know you are very pro-stock and strongly believe in the "buy-n-hold" philosophy. I also gather that your TSP is only a small part of your portfolio, if I read your inferences correctly.
Birchtree,
Just curious since I haven't seen you state for some time, what are your allocations in the TSP? I know you are very pro-stock and strongly believe in the "buy-n-hold" philosophy. I also gather that your TSP is only a small part of your portfolio, if I read your inferences correctly.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Blue Max,
I'm 70% C fund and 30% I fund with a balance measurably over the $500K mark. I try and stay concentrated with my holdings so I can use the leverage of my accumulated shares. My outside oceanic account contains 228 individual stocks and is slowly approaching the $2M mark. My wife has a defined contribution retirement plan with the State of Florida that is actually larger than my TSP plan and she currently is 100% in a S&P type mutual fund known as the Pioneer Fund A (PYODX) and is patiently waiting to make multi-$K per point.
Blue Max,
I'm 70% C fund and 30% I fund with a balance measurably over the $500K mark. I try and stay concentrated with my holdings so I can use the leverage of my accumulated shares. My outside oceanic account contains 228 individual stocks and is slowly approaching the $2M mark. My wife has a defined contribution retirement plan with the State of Florida that is actually larger than my TSP plan and she currently is 100% in a S&P type mutual fund known as the Pioneer Fund A (PYODX) and is patiently waiting to make multi-$K per point.
Frixxxx
Moderator
- Reaction score
- 131
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
FRIXXXX,
Nah, but you can do the same thing with a disciplined approach of dollar cost averaging and keep working so you can keep buying throughout all the different cycles. I'll probably get my last C fund under $16.00 the end of this week - wouldn't actually mind a few more good buys but I think the market is headed much higher and all prices will levitate.
FRIXXXX,
Nah, but you can do the same thing with a disciplined approach of dollar cost averaging and keep working so you can keep buying throughout all the different cycles. I'll probably get my last C fund under $16.00 the end of this week - wouldn't actually mind a few more good buys but I think the market is headed much higher and all prices will levitate.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch - are you concerned (or a little nervous) that somehow the government will try to squeeze more money out of you? Here I do not mean the across the board tactics - I mean tactics more specifically designed "against those who sucessfuly surpassed the $1 or 2M mark".
Somehow I see these people as the easiest ones to prey on and that leaves the "filthy rich" safe guarded until they knock out the ones who are comfortable but struggled over the years to make it. Anyway just wondering if you've got any plans on shielding your assets??
Birch - are you concerned (or a little nervous) that somehow the government will try to squeeze more money out of you? Here I do not mean the across the board tactics - I mean tactics more specifically designed "against those who sucessfuly surpassed the $1 or 2M mark".
Somehow I see these people as the easiest ones to prey on and that leaves the "filthy rich" safe guarded until they knock out the ones who are comfortable but struggled over the years to make it. Anyway just wondering if you've got any plans on shielding your assets??
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Do I have a plan to shield my assets - you bet. My primary objective is to keep my family in the 15% tax bracket which allows my stock capital gains and qualified dividends to be either tax free or taxed at 5%. Now the hard part is trying to keep our ordinary income under $61,500 per year and this will also increase with inflation over the years going forward. My wife will take her retirement money only on demand, I'll get my annuity and set up a transfer option to move money from TSP into a Roth on a scheduled basis. The best time to move money is when you have no ordinary income - live off of savings for a year or so. I never have to sell stock if I'm not inclined and I can prolong my application for social security until I'm ready. Stay away from 1099s and nobody knows your business. All I have to do is make sure an Elephant gets the White House and the tax cuts are made permanent. This all requires a certain degree of long term planning and there are other contingency plans to think about but I'll save them for another time.
Do I have a plan to shield my assets - you bet. My primary objective is to keep my family in the 15% tax bracket which allows my stock capital gains and qualified dividends to be either tax free or taxed at 5%. Now the hard part is trying to keep our ordinary income under $61,500 per year and this will also increase with inflation over the years going forward. My wife will take her retirement money only on demand, I'll get my annuity and set up a transfer option to move money from TSP into a Roth on a scheduled basis. The best time to move money is when you have no ordinary income - live off of savings for a year or so. I never have to sell stock if I'm not inclined and I can prolong my application for social security until I'm ready. Stay away from 1099s and nobody knows your business. All I have to do is make sure an Elephant gets the White House and the tax cuts are made permanent. This all requires a certain degree of long term planning and there are other contingency plans to think about but I'll save them for another time.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
THANK YOU!!
Will copy - paste - keep
THANK YOU!!
Will copy - paste - keep
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'd say that is pretty unlikely this year - general sentiment is "we are way overdue for a change"
Moving towards Obama - very impressed with his economic backing. In the event you're not aware - over 200 of the world's most prominent Economic Leaders have solidly backed him as well as several Nobel Prize winners.
Military wise he has a huge backing with very prominent Military Leaders.
Anyway I doubt an Elephant is there after 11/08
I'd say that is pretty unlikely this year - general sentiment is "we are way overdue for a change"
Moving towards Obama - very impressed with his economic backing. In the event you're not aware - over 200 of the world's most prominent Economic Leaders have solidly backed him as well as several Nobel Prize winners.
Military wise he has a huge backing with very prominent Military Leaders.
Anyway I doubt an Elephant is there after 11/08
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birchtree,
Thanks for the response. It is a little more detail than I was expecting, but with that detail I can correlate my position a little better on your assessments.
I mostly listen and try to "test the waters", based on many of the more knowledgeable talkers on the site, such as yourself.
Thanks again.
Birchtree,
Thanks for the response. It is a little more detail than I was expecting, but with that detail I can correlate my position a little better on your assessments.
I mostly listen and try to "test the waters", based on many of the more knowledgeable talkers on the site, such as yourself.
Thanks again.
luv2read
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 18
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
Please excuse my ignorance. Why would you move $500K into a Roth, even incrementally on a schedule? It seems to me that you would incur an astronomical amount of taxes. Why not a direct rollover/transfer all or incrementally into a regular IRA which remains tax-deferred until you begin withdrawals? I know I'm missing something, Birch. Can you enlighten me, please? PM if you don't want to post.
Birch,
Please excuse my ignorance. Why would you move $500K into a Roth, even incrementally on a schedule? It seems to me that you would incur an astronomical amount of taxes. Why not a direct rollover/transfer all or incrementally into a regular IRA which remains tax-deferred until you begin withdrawals? I know I'm missing something, Birch. Can you enlighten me, please? PM if you don't want to post.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Forgive me - but it looks like Birch left - so maybe I can help
The ROTH are TAX-FREE withdrawals and the taxes we spend in acquiring these investments are trival in comparison to what we would pay once we decide to cash in. We defer a more substantial loss by paying the taxes up front.
The focus here is minimizing TAXES (LOSS) over the long run. It took many years of sound investments to get here - so now it's doing everything possible to keep others from snatching it away.
Birch,
Please excuse my ignorance. Why would you move $500K into a Roth, even incrementally on a schedule? It seems to me that you would incur an astronomical amount of taxes. Why not a direct rollover/transfer all or incrementally into a regular IRA which remains tax-deferred until you begin withdrawals? I know I'm missing something, Birch. Can you enlighten me, please? PM if you don't want to post.
Forgive me - but it looks like Birch left - so maybe I can help
The ROTH are TAX-FREE withdrawals and the taxes we spend in acquiring these investments are trival in comparison to what we would pay once we decide to cash in. We defer a more substantial loss by paying the taxes up front.
The focus here is minimizing TAXES (LOSS) over the long run. It took many years of sound investments to get here - so now it's doing everything possible to keep others from snatching it away.
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