Birchtree's Account Talk

[nsurf9]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree, my thoughts as well - real estate financing's got a vapor lock; bonds have had the Fed drop its rate out from under them; and, stocks are in a down trend. Commodities are the only winning game in town. When it tops out, probably close at hand, the money will go were? - maybe stocks, maybe bonds depending on the US economy.

 

[RPM]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree, my thoughts as well - real estate financing's got a vapor lock; bonds have had the Fed drop its rate out from under them; and, stocks are in a down trend. Commodities are the only winning game in town. When it tops out, probably close at hand, the money will go were? - maybe stocks, maybe bonds depending on the US economy.

Any move planned for today? TIA

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

RPM,

If you are asking Birchtree I don't plan on making any moves until the I fund reaches $27.00. Then I'll shift to 100% C fund and continue to ride the profit train until early 2010. That is the year we should have another 4 year cycle low nesting - at which point it might be advisable to seek some shelter. The only problem is that these cycles sometimes have a tendency to extend before fully nesting a bottom. Long term planning is the key.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Nsurf9,

Glad to see your posting again.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Interesting to see people performing an IFT today not realizing that it goes into affect May 1st and will count as their first IFT for the month.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The internals of the financials are actually looking very good right now - it's time to look over the horizon. By this I mean the XLF breadth MCO will undoubtedly make a higher high today continuing its support of the ongoing construction that is taking place in this sector. The 10% component (19 day EMA) is now above its zero line for the first time since February. Fundamentally we are ever closer to the inevitable of huge amounts of money that will overwhelm any technical outlook. The CO NYSE breadth MCSUM continues to make higher highs with stable post expansion. The magic number is the +250 level which was the summation failure point in July'07 when this correction started. We are currently at +114. Most of the index MCSUMs have all broken above their accelerated declining trend lines - this would confirm the notion that the correctional activity of the last 9 months has been put behind us. It's time to get off the lily pad and back into the game - be in to win.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sometimes I feel bad because some members have quit this board because they could no longer tolerate my bullish stance on the C fund.

If you really think that is why people left, you need to get that cataract surgery fast. It's not letting you see things clearly.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thankyou Sugar, that does make me feel better.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Tokyo market gained 11% in April - the best since 1995 - but is still off 9.5% for the year. On average, Japanese stocks are now trading at about 15 times earnings, down from a price to earnings ratio of more than 50 just five years ago. Nearly 2/3 of Japan's lised companies trade at a price to book ratio of less than 1. Ripe for a wave of mergers and acquisitions. Bullitt is on to something.

 

[BIGBULLY]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If the DOW does shoot up to 16K or 17K, what is the best fund to be in?
S or C, or both?

Thanks!
Bryan

OMG...whose crystal ball are you looking at? 17K? neva!!! not in this business cycle!! It's an uphill battle. Oil will double by year's end. Inflation will manifest with rack up to 4 or 5% by year's end and then some easing till the FED sees the signs of more turbulence in commodies as inventories/produce become scarce and elasticity of supplies (inventories) becomes taunt. The FED will resist injections of liquidity (money supply) and let the market finally drive its course, like they should have back in Feb/Mar 2008. It will be 2009 when the bottom bangs will a dramatic bounce, the RE market is surely in recovery, and we are at war with Iran, and the next Prez has HIS hands full. Take cover with soy!!!! BigBully

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

...until early 2010. That is the year we should have another 4 year cycle low nesting - at which point it might be advisable to seek some shelter. The only problem is that these cycles sometimes have a tendency to extend before fully nesting a bottom. Long term planning is the key.

Birchtree, I think this means that the market goes up until 2010 when a four year downtrend/bear begins, and that period of four years could be longer before actually reaching a bottom. Correct? And thus the move to plan on is moving to G or F for that period, starting 2010 and that it could be for quite awhile?

For those nearing retirement, near/midterm growth projections are important and that's why I'm asking your opinion.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yes sir, 2010 is the time period I'm looking at for trouble to begin. I don't know what will trip the event but I'm concerned primarily with the cycles so fundamentals will not be important. I noticed that the factory orders were up +1.4% for March - a nice surprise. Even the Bank of England stated the other day that the realized losses suffered by banks on illiquid assets such as mortgage backed securities are unlikely to be as large as current market prices indicate. Such a mark to market approach to valuing illiquid securities could significantly exaggerate the scale of losses that financial institutions might incur. The problem has been made worse by the failure of banks to disclose the assumptions that underlie their valuations when they do announce write-downs. Also, one positive sign in the latest Fed report: Inflationary pressures remain at bay. The price index for personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in the first quarter rose 3.5% from a year ago; that compared with a 3.9% increase in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy, the price gauge rose 2.2% from a year ago, compared with 2.5% in the fourth quarter. U.S. labor costs - also a gauge of inflation - increased at their slowest pace in two years. The employment-cost index rose 0.7% in the first quarter. Wages and salaries increased 0.8%. So much for all the reactionary gloom and doom that has been about these days. It's good and prudent not to over react.

 

[Silverbird]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Tokyo market gained 11% in April - the best since 1995 - but is still off 9.5% for the year. On average, Japanese stocks are now trading at about 15 times earnings, down from a price to earnings ratio of more than 50 just five years ago. Nearly 2/3 of Japan's lised companies trade at a price to book ratio of less than 1. Ripe for a wave of mergers and acquisitions. Bullitt is on to something.

Unfortunately for Japan's small companies, mergers and acquisitions are relatively rare -- usually what happens is the big companies close their wallets and stop buying from subcontractors and specialty shops.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Silverbird,

You are correct to a certain extent, but the Euro zone companies with their strong currency are showing up and shopping for Japanese companies. They do like their infamous poison pills but I don't think they will be protected.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Valuation is as good as it has been since the Super Cycle Bull Market began. IBES valuation model at 35 is extremely undervalued. Many don't understand what a 3rd wave can do to ones technical work. With the idea that Primary 3 is still in its early stages of unwinding to the upside as it relates to the NYSE group of stocks currently at 9454 and pushing toward 9750. We will see many multiple 3 digit Dow up days in a row in the future. There is a great amount of evidence suggesting that the A/D line will not top simultaneously with price. So the time to be on guard will be when the major market averages make new highs, but the A/D line falls short. The bull market will power higher as long as people don't start buying into it in droves and as long as the prevailing belief is that it's a cyclical bull within a secular bear. That lily pad continues to remain full - that's good.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The market will do everything, and I do mean everything, to keep the majority of chicletts from participating, bull markets do not like company, only at the top. It's not people selling that make prices move lower - it's prices moving lower that make people sell. It's also good to remember that the VIX actually rose during the market advance of 1996 to 1998.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a speculator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. As an example I peeled off some CSX today at $64 to raise some cash for further purchases. I bought this position in 04/23/04 at $15.83 and I'm sorry to see it leave the portfolio but there does come a time when the sacrifice to purchase is greater than the comfort of owning for further gains. I have plenty left to make more profits. I recall that bull and bear markets in real estate are measured in years, not months. Sometimes they do ring a bell. I think that 2004, 2005 and into 2006 were base building periods and when these types of very long term base pattern happen they invariably give rise to secular, multi-year bull market moves, which in my view is precisely what is coming next for the NYSE group of stocks.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch - don't take this wrong my friend - BUT I LOVE YOU!!

Have a great weekend. I am amazed that only yesterday it seems like you were telling Griffen that you were about to land on his parachute and now you're less than 4%.

The most amazing aspect is that all of us had to scratch our heads here and there and roll our eyes and wonder WHO IS THIS GUY - but you stuck your guns and you are raking in the bucks.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As a chartist you really have to admire the angle of ascent on the SPX, a beautiful 45 degree angle, very bullish and bottoms above bottoms continue to control the pattern. New highs outpaced new lows on the NYSE today by a 4-1 ratio. Once the NYAD makes a new all-time high this will be the recognition wave where 3rd waves are when the majority throw in the towel as they discover that the trend is undeniable, especially in the face of all the bad news. The SPX at 1565.15 and the NYA at 10,311.64 are the target levels to beat. Elliott methodology suggests that if this happens we have a higher degree third wave. The NYAD line moved above its 200 day EMA. It seems likely that greed will replace fear as the market's overriding theme in 2008 - get me in at any price.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As a chartist you really have to admire the angle of ascent on the SPX, a beautiful 45 degree angle, very bullish and bottoms above bottoms continue to control the pattern. New highs outpaced new lows on the NYSE today by a 4-1 ratio. Once the NYAD makes a new all-time high this will be the recognition wave where 3rd waves are when the majority throw in the towel as they discover that the trend is undeniable, especially in the face of all the bad news. The SPX at 1565.15 and the NYA at 10,311.64 are the target levels to beat. Elliott methodology suggests that if this happens we have a higher degree third wave. The NYAD line moved above its 200 day EMA. It seems likely that greed will replace fear as the market's overriding theme in 2008 - get me in at any price.

Well just as a heads up Birchtree the Aston Martin DBS is now payed for in cash. Thursday and Friday $392k and change. Took more risk than normal but it payed off. I actually talked to several people who agreed with 12% about backing out of the market on Bernanke on Wednesday and playing Thursday and Friday. Now back to square one for investing ideas because that money got socked away but it's funny - I made more money shorting the market from 14000 down and now I'm catching up going the long way $$$$. One of my best weeks in sometime. Hope it's working out for you as well.

Cayman