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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Cayman,
If I had your asset base a $392K payday would be doable, but it will be awhile longer - I'm still working on the $2M. But I'll get there. I may do some select buying next week, slowly at first as to not create a panic but eventually there will be a bullish stampede. I mean the SPX earnings in the first quarter, excluding financials, are up 12% - and that's what makes a price pattern move higher. I'm still patiently waiting for my first $100K week. If the NYA goes to 10,311.64 the center point of Primary wave 3 is directly in front of us. Be right and sit tight. Not the environment to be short because there will be multiple days of triple digit gains in a row.
Cayman,
If I had your asset base a $392K payday would be doable, but it will be awhile longer - I'm still working on the $2M. But I'll get there. I may do some select buying next week, slowly at first as to not create a panic but eventually there will be a bullish stampede. I mean the SPX earnings in the first quarter, excluding financials, are up 12% - and that's what makes a price pattern move higher. I'm still patiently waiting for my first $100K week. If the NYA goes to 10,311.64 the center point of Primary wave 3 is directly in front of us. Be right and sit tight. Not the environment to be short because there will be multiple days of triple digit gains in a row.
caymanbrac12
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 9
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I guess it is all relative. I have a close friend and she made 2m net this week but she is working with a 80m base all inheritance - she went to Wharton but has never really worked a day in her life. She has made some attempts to understand the market, i.e. MCSUM etc. and what she got out of school but she has other people doing the work. She's only 44yrs old but she's got the 23,000 sq foot home, 6 car garage etc., boat, the whole 9 yards but when I get on her ass about donations for some of the dog support help groups she tightens up her cheque book which irritates the hell out of me even though its a nice tax ded. To each his own but she makes me feel slightly on the lower end of the picture which she has never done in any apparent outward fashion - the modicum of decorum but we both know what the big picture is that's why I've learned not to sweat it - do the best with what you got and screw the rest - as my father would say "as long as you wake up above ground it's always a good day". Good money days, bad money days just be in the game or you are simply a spectator and last time I checked they haven't done too well financially.
People need to not complain but put in a little elbow grease. Read Thomas Bulkowski - he has a series of books for anyone interested in technical analysis or grab a fundamental book but arm yourself with knowledge because if definitely improves you chances of making more than losing more. I am always suprised at people who trade regularly - don't have a clue about the market and can't figure out why they keep losing money - also no offense too anyone here but it is a fools game to pay someone else to make decisions for you when armed with the proper knowledge you can make those decisions yourself. It just takes a little confidence, luck and hard work.
Homework worked in college - why won't it work here? Just like on CNBC,there are facts from 10-k's, govt reports (little skeptical on some of that), etc. and then there are opinions. These guys come on that show to sell you something. I think it is hilarious when Dylan Ratigan on Fast Money tells about how Pete Najarian made 20% in 1 week on as stock but doesn't tell you about all the other crap he recommended where he lost money. Ratigan does that for all his crew. He must think people are really clueless which unfortunately some are. Anything they tell you, you can figure it out for yourself in 5 minutes just by looking it the right places and having the experience to discerne BS from the real thing.
Off the bully pulpit.
Good luck too all.
I guess it is all relative. I have a close friend and she made 2m net this week but she is working with a 80m base all inheritance - she went to Wharton but has never really worked a day in her life. She has made some attempts to understand the market, i.e. MCSUM etc. and what she got out of school but she has other people doing the work. She's only 44yrs old but she's got the 23,000 sq foot home, 6 car garage etc., boat, the whole 9 yards but when I get on her ass about donations for some of the dog support help groups she tightens up her cheque book which irritates the hell out of me even though its a nice tax ded. To each his own but she makes me feel slightly on the lower end of the picture which she has never done in any apparent outward fashion - the modicum of decorum but we both know what the big picture is that's why I've learned not to sweat it - do the best with what you got and screw the rest - as my father would say "as long as you wake up above ground it's always a good day". Good money days, bad money days just be in the game or you are simply a spectator and last time I checked they haven't done too well financially.
People need to not complain but put in a little elbow grease. Read Thomas Bulkowski - he has a series of books for anyone interested in technical analysis or grab a fundamental book but arm yourself with knowledge because if definitely improves you chances of making more than losing more. I am always suprised at people who trade regularly - don't have a clue about the market and can't figure out why they keep losing money - also no offense too anyone here but it is a fools game to pay someone else to make decisions for you when armed with the proper knowledge you can make those decisions yourself. It just takes a little confidence, luck and hard work.
Homework worked in college - why won't it work here? Just like on CNBC,there are facts from 10-k's, govt reports (little skeptical on some of that), etc. and then there are opinions. These guys come on that show to sell you something. I think it is hilarious when Dylan Ratigan on Fast Money tells about how Pete Najarian made 20% in 1 week on as stock but doesn't tell you about all the other crap he recommended where he lost money. Ratigan does that for all his crew. He must think people are really clueless which unfortunately some are. Anything they tell you, you can figure it out for yourself in 5 minutes just by looking it the right places and having the experience to discerne BS from the real thing.
Off the bully pulpit.
Good luck too all.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Now that we are apparently in a slow down if recent mid cycle slow downs (1985 and 1995) are any indication of future market moves, this should be a positive for the markets going forward. The longer the economy takes to bake the better the outcome. The valuation indicator continues to send an unbelievably bullish message with equities better than 30% undervalued. Contrary to what's been believed, risk aversion is not always the guiding light of decision-making. Loss aversion is a surprisingly powerful emotion. So great, in fact, that it keeps people from accepting good bets. The value of one's portfolio at any given moment is irrelevant if you have a long-term perspective. Do not under any circumstances, underestimate the current marketplace. The underlying tone is very good. There always has to be financial crisis to support the "Wall of Worry" for the economy and financial markets. IMHO the ability to step back and use the market to achieve one's goals, rather than trying to follow and beat the market's every move, is my key to a long-term success in investing. If this up move continues to be in or approaching the epicenter of wave 3 of 3 up right now, we will take out the 2003 MCSUM high of +1600.
Now that we are apparently in a slow down if recent mid cycle slow downs (1985 and 1995) are any indication of future market moves, this should be a positive for the markets going forward. The longer the economy takes to bake the better the outcome. The valuation indicator continues to send an unbelievably bullish message with equities better than 30% undervalued. Contrary to what's been believed, risk aversion is not always the guiding light of decision-making. Loss aversion is a surprisingly powerful emotion. So great, in fact, that it keeps people from accepting good bets. The value of one's portfolio at any given moment is irrelevant if you have a long-term perspective. Do not under any circumstances, underestimate the current marketplace. The underlying tone is very good. There always has to be financial crisis to support the "Wall of Worry" for the economy and financial markets. IMHO the ability to step back and use the market to achieve one's goals, rather than trying to follow and beat the market's every move, is my key to a long-term success in investing. If this up move continues to be in or approaching the epicenter of wave 3 of 3 up right now, we will take out the 2003 MCSUM high of +1600.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I just wanted to say briefly that the biggest up day in history can come at any time. One has to remember that as we continue to move toward the epicenter of primary 3 corrections will tend to be harder, faster, and set spectacular bottoms in which to move up aggressively. Knowing the overall context of the A/D line itself does come in handy on an intermediate to longer term basis. So the A/D line is your fuel - the MCO measures how fast the fuel is being used - and the MCSUM shows you the progress of this same fuel consumption.
I just wanted to say briefly that the biggest up day in history can come at any time. One has to remember that as we continue to move toward the epicenter of primary 3 corrections will tend to be harder, faster, and set spectacular bottoms in which to move up aggressively. Knowing the overall context of the A/D line itself does come in handy on an intermediate to longer term basis. So the A/D line is your fuel - the MCO measures how fast the fuel is being used - and the MCSUM shows you the progress of this same fuel consumption.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
From my friends at Merrill by Mary Ann Bartels - Technical Research Analyst
"Mega-cap leadership and Dow Theory: perfect together. DJIA breakout establishes Dow Theory buy signal. We have been saying for some time that the lows are in and the secular bull market is resuming. (That means we just had a cyclical correction - no bear market). Both the DJIA and the AMEX Major Market Index recently broke out from a "head and shoulders" base formation, and the breakout resulted in a new Dow Theory buy signal because the Dow Jones Transportation Index had previously established its own uptrend. The breakout and the new Dow Theory primary uptrend confirm our mega-cap leadership theme. As we mentioned, the new Dow Theory buy signal was generated by the fact that both the DJ Industrials and Transportation indexes have established new uptrends from the January lows."
If we break the NYSE breadth MCSUM summation failure point at +250, it should be a very good summer for the market. We are currently at +209.32. I'm going to be right and sit tight all summer not missing a single beat. Remember, the biggest up day in history can come at any time and I'm already getting greedy. I want my first $100K week and my Maypo too.
From my friends at Merrill by Mary Ann Bartels - Technical Research Analyst
"Mega-cap leadership and Dow Theory: perfect together. DJIA breakout establishes Dow Theory buy signal. We have been saying for some time that the lows are in and the secular bull market is resuming. (That means we just had a cyclical correction - no bear market). Both the DJIA and the AMEX Major Market Index recently broke out from a "head and shoulders" base formation, and the breakout resulted in a new Dow Theory buy signal because the Dow Jones Transportation Index had previously established its own uptrend. The breakout and the new Dow Theory primary uptrend confirm our mega-cap leadership theme. As we mentioned, the new Dow Theory buy signal was generated by the fact that both the DJ Industrials and Transportation indexes have established new uptrends from the January lows."
If we break the NYSE breadth MCSUM summation failure point at +250, it should be a very good summer for the market. We are currently at +209.32. I'm going to be right and sit tight all summer not missing a single beat. Remember, the biggest up day in history can come at any time and I'm already getting greedy. I want my first $100K week and my Maypo too.
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Forgive my sense of humor this early in the morning, but I believe your
gonna have to expain what "Maypo" was to your younger audience. I'll
take mine with Aunt Jemima or honey, please.
You do share, don't you ? :nuts:
I find the research and summary you documented, very exciting !
It appears to be a growing belief that the Market will buck the Seasonal
Trend this summer and put the "Bear" to rest by writing off the down
trend as a "correction". Calling a bottom is always risky, so hand me the
dice and lets get greedy together. Hopefully, all that money sitting on the
side lines will finally be at peace with Financials, Housing and the Dollar.
Forgive my sense of humor this early in the morning, but I believe your
gonna have to expain what "Maypo" was to your younger audience. I'll
take mine with Aunt Jemima or honey, please.
You do share, don't you ? :nuts:
I find the research and summary you documented, very exciting !
It appears to be a growing belief that the Market will buck the Seasonal
Trend this summer and put the "Bear" to rest by writing off the down
trend as a "correction". Calling a bottom is always risky, so hand me the
dice and lets get greedy together. Hopefully, all that money sitting on the
side lines will finally be at peace with Financials, Housing and the Dollar.
caymanbrac12
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 9
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Maypo -
Maypo is a brand of maple-flavored oatmeal. It was developed by the Maltex Corporation in Burlington, Vermont in 1953. It was famous for its television commercials with the catchphrase, "I want my Maypo!"
Great stuff
Forgive my sense of humor this early in the morning, but I believe your
gonna have to expain what "Maypo" was to your younger audience. I'll
take mine with Aunt Jemima or honey, please.
You do share, don't you ? :nuts:
I find the research and summary you documented, very exciting !
It appears to be a growing belief that the Market will buck the Seasonal
Trend this summer and put the "Bear" to rest by writing off the down
trend as a "correction". Calling a bottom is always risky, so hand me the
dice and lets get greedy together. Hopefully, all that money sitting on the
side lines will finally be at peace with Financials, Housing and the Dollar.
Maypo -
Maypo is a brand of maple-flavored oatmeal. It was developed by the Maltex Corporation in Burlington, Vermont in 1953. It was famous for its television commercials with the catchphrase, "I want my Maypo!"
Great stuff
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Caymanbrac, your either showing your age "or" love to "google". (LoL)
I remember the whiney little kid crying for his Maypo. I recall saying to
myself; what a wuss, must be an only child. (I had 4 bro's & 1 sis)
Glad you enjoyed
Caymanbrac, your either showing your age "or" love to "google". (LoL)
I remember the whiney little kid crying for his Maypo. I recall saying to
myself; what a wuss, must be an only child. (I had 4 bro's & 1 sis)
Glad you enjoyed
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
If you look over history, you will generally find that most significant tops in the US stock market have come while the dollar has been rising and not falling. The US dollar index recently rallied through a resistance trend line that had contained a month-long trading range, and it did so with some of the best momentum readings of the year. This, plus bearish sentiment readings, suggests that the move may be the beginning of a rally that finally has "legs". If so, continued dollar strength could be a precursor to increased pressures on commodity prices.
If you look over history, you will generally find that most significant tops in the US stock market have come while the dollar has been rising and not falling. The US dollar index recently rallied through a resistance trend line that had contained a month-long trading range, and it did so with some of the best momentum readings of the year. This, plus bearish sentiment readings, suggests that the move may be the beginning of a rally that finally has "legs". If so, continued dollar strength could be a precursor to increased pressures on commodity prices.
Silverbird
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 27
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Hope you're right, Birch, I'm getting tired of sticker shock at the grocery store.
caymanbrac12
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 9
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Born in 54 and almost 54. LOL What fond memories I have of the cereals of my day.
Caymanbrac, your either showing your age "or" love to "google". (LoL)
I remember the whiney little kid crying for his Maypo. I recall saying to
myself; what a wuss, must be an only child. (I had 4 bro's & 1 sis)
Glad you enjoyed
Born in 54 and almost 54. LOL
What fond memories I have of the cereals of my day.
caymanbrac12
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 9
Re: Birchtree's account talk
That's telling 'em Birchtree - the NY Merc boys are selling that oil like crazy. What it close at today?? 119.38 - I even think it saw 120 and didn't copper hit an all time high today??
Ol' Denny Gartman is shaking in his boots.:nuts:
The ol' greenback is going to have to hold some strength for longer than a week.
That's telling 'em Birchtree - the NY Merc boys are selling that oil like crazy. What it close at today?? 119.38 - I even think it saw 120 and didn't copper hit an all time high today??
Ol' Denny Gartman is shaking in his boots.
:nuts:The ol' greenback is going to have to hold some strength for longer than a week.
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Yes, back when you could use the word "SUGAR". Now its "HONEY" everything.
Born in 54 and almost 54. LOL
Yes, back when you could use the word "SUGAR". Now its "HONEY" everything.
XL-entLady
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 48
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm enjoying the financial information I've been gleaning from you, but today my favorite posts have been this walk down memory lane. Yes, back when Sugar Pops were the world's best breakfast!
Thanks!
I'm enjoying the financial information I've been gleaning from you, but today my favorite posts have been this walk down memory lane. Yes, back when Sugar Pops were the world's best breakfast!
Thanks!
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
For the past month, the A/D indicator has been making lower highs on each short rally. This means that fewer and fewer stocks are participating. However, it also has a pattern of higher lows, which implies that while buyers have been more reluctant to step in, the sellers have not yet been able to take control of the trend. Let's see if we can get a turn up today.
For the past month, the A/D indicator has been making lower highs on each short rally. This means that fewer and fewer stocks are participating. However, it also has a pattern of higher lows, which implies that while buyers have been more reluctant to step in, the sellers have not yet been able to take control of the trend. Let's see if we can get a turn up today.
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Out of respect for Birchtree's thread, breakfast cereals can be talked
about in the lounge. It was enjoyable and hope to continue this on
another thread. Love, SugarBear.:embarrest:
Out of respect for Birchtree's thread, breakfast cereals can be talked
about in the lounge. It was enjoyable and hope to continue this on
another thread. Love, SugarBear.:embarrest:
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Great Master, oh Mighty Enlightened One, it is I; Grasshopper".
To which Birch says, "Yes Grasshopper I could sense your troubled state even before you left your room and knew it was you before you spoke a word. Why are you so troubled"?
"Master, you have told us the Markets are like a big ocean with mightly waves that go up and down; but it is best to stay in the boat because over time the tide will rise".
"Grasshopper, the one who stays in the boat can not sink because he is always above the water". Birch says this with a pleasant smile and the serenity of age old wisdom.
"Master, many have stived to prove you wrong - thinking that their way is better. Many jumped out of the boat when the wave was very low and the boat was gone when the wave went back up. Many are now consumed with fear - ready to sping from the boat and not sure when to climb back in. What will happen to all these people"??
"Grasshopper, do you sense the peace and tranquility that abides with me and how I am at peace no matter where the boat is floating. It is possible that some may time the waves in a manner that is very profitable; but these waves are unpredictable and no one knows when the currents change and the hidden storm comes. But the one who remains in the boat will never sink. Go back and tell the others to remember the one great saying: BE RIGHT AND SIT TIGHT".
"Great Master, oh Mighty Enlightened One, it is I; Grasshopper".
To which Birch says, "Yes Grasshopper I could sense your troubled state even before you left your room and knew it was you before you spoke a word. Why are you so troubled"?
"Master, you have told us the Markets are like a big ocean with mightly waves that go up and down; but it is best to stay in the boat because over time the tide will rise".
"Grasshopper, the one who stays in the boat can not sink because he is always above the water". Birch says this with a pleasant smile and the serenity of age old wisdom.
"Master, many have stived to prove you wrong - thinking that their way is better. Many jumped out of the boat when the wave was very low and the boat was gone when the wave went back up. Many are now consumed with fear - ready to sping from the boat and not sure when to climb back in. What will happen to all these people"??
"Grasshopper, do you sense the peace and tranquility that abides with me and how I am at peace no matter where the boat is floating. It is possible that some may time the waves in a manner that is very profitable; but these waves are unpredictable and no one knows when the currents change and the hidden storm comes. But the one who remains in the boat will never sink. Go back and tell the others to remember the one great saying: BE RIGHT AND SIT TIGHT".
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