-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"When looking at a 5 year Dow chart one can see that bull markets move up in a long term up channel. The Dow has moved in an up channel from 2003 to 2007. However, in January of this year, the Dow broke below its 5 year bull channel. After the break, it has managed to rise up back into its channel. The Dow is within its channel and it just broke above its inter-channel resistance line - that favors more up movement on the short term. From a technical basis to be back in a bull market condition the Dow would have to make a higher/top followed by a higher bottom and then move to a confirming higher top." Will it happen, you bet. When, who knows. I'm going to hold tight for a Dow of 17,500 by the end of 2008. And my money is where my mouth resides.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10103.htm
"When looking at a 5 year Dow chart one can see that bull markets move up in a long term up channel. The Dow has moved in an up channel from 2003 to 2007. However, in January of this year, the Dow broke below its 5 year bull channel. After the break, it has managed to rise up back into its channel. The Dow is within its channel and it just broke above its inter-channel resistance line - that favors more up movement on the short term. From a technical basis to be back in a bull market condition the Dow would have to make a higher/top followed by a higher bottom and then move to a confirming higher top." Will it happen, you bet. When, who knows. I'm going to hold tight for a Dow of 17,500 by the end of 2008. And my money is where my mouth resides.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10103.htm
Frixxxx
Moderator
- Reaction score
- 131
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I hope you're right, I see a 16,000 Dow this year..charts you ask? crystal ball? Speculation? I see a rocky road until there is a new president....
I hope you're right, I see a 16,000 Dow this year..charts you ask? crystal ball? Speculation? I see a rocky road until there is a new president....
Frixxxx
Moderator
- Reaction score
- 131
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I can't wait to read Birch's response to this one......
I can't wait to read Birch's response to this one......
Last edited:
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
If the dollar is beginning a slow rebound that'll take several years, I think the best place to be for outperformance is the C fund. Hedge with a small portion in the I fund. I believe the small caps recently finished their seven year bullish cycle - they will not outperform like the large caps are destined to do. Every sector eventually has a sunny day. The C fund has a 23% weighting of the financial sector and these types of stocks will rebound against last years earnings comparisons. When the money starts to flow watch the points rack up.
If the dollar is beginning a slow rebound that'll take several years, I think the best place to be for outperformance is the C fund. Hedge with a small portion in the I fund. I believe the small caps recently finished their seven year bullish cycle - they will not outperform like the large caps are destined to do. Every sector eventually has a sunny day. The C fund has a 23% weighting of the financial sector and these types of stocks will rebound against last years earnings comparisons. When the money starts to flow watch the points rack up.
Frixxxx
Moderator
- Reaction score
- 131
Re: Birchtree's account talk
True to form, Birch!
I should have said I can't wait to "see" his response....
True to form, Birch!
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
When yields on three-month Treasury notes fell below 1.5% in 1958 and again in early 2003, the stock market rallied more than 20%. With T-notes now yielding 1.27% what are the chances for a multi-thousand point bull rampage in the stock market. Whew!! The current correction has only been a setback in an unprecedented bull market.
When yields on three-month Treasury notes fell below 1.5% in 1958 and again in early 2003, the stock market rallied more than 20%. With T-notes now yielding 1.27% what are the chances for a multi-thousand point bull rampage in the stock market. Whew!! The current correction has only been a setback in an unprecedented bull market.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 210
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I think IT WILL happen Birch, just can't figure out the time line. We have done it before and will again!!
You are the "C" BULLMAN!!View attachment 3812
I think IT WILL happen Birch, just can't figure out the time line. We have done it before and will again!!
You are the "C" BULLMAN!!View attachment 3812
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Japanese Inflation: Much Ado About Little. Japanese headline inflation has risen sharply in recent months in response to higher energy prices, but there has been negligible pass-through into other areas."
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com
"Japanese Inflation: Much Ado About Little. Japanese headline inflation has risen sharply in recent months in response to higher energy prices, but there has been negligible pass-through into other areas."
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Nnutt,
Sometimes I feel bad because some members have quit this board because they could no longer tolerate my bullish stance on the C fund. But I've been correct and will continue to be right and sit tight - holding the thin blue line. Anyone that dares to go 100% S fund should be singing sitting on the stock of the bay watching profits wash away. The S fund has had its day and now must face the wall and wait for another time - it was strong early in this decade and will now rest after its seven year run. Newer members are not privy to this degree of animosity that used to exist - but I'm open to new friends every day.
Nnutt,
Sometimes I feel bad because some members have quit this board because they could no longer tolerate my bullish stance on the C fund. But I've been correct and will continue to be right and sit tight - holding the thin blue line. Anyone that dares to go 100% S fund should be singing sitting on the stock of the bay watching profits wash away. The S fund has had its day and now must face the wall and wait for another time - it was strong early in this decade and will now rest after its seven year run. Newer members are not privy to this degree of animosity that used to exist - but I'm open to new friends every day.
Buster
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 109
Re: Birchtree's account talk
However, C lost a penny today while S made 5 cents...:worried:
However, C lost a penny today while S made 5 cents...:worried:
FUTURESTRADER
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 17
Re: Birchtree's account talk
C fund seems to me to be a hedge for a true buy n holder limited to the TSP funds. I never got that about our beloved 'Birchy'. If one were a true buy n holder, without the bravado, one should see that the S fund, given the option between C or S, would be the fund of choice. Not to mention that the largest holding in the S fund is Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway, which has averaged over 20% yearly over the past 20 years, 1350% since 1990. vs. the S&P 500 @ 280%. S, I, F, and G are the players. C is really superfluous.
sNORT! (I like that expression)
As soon as I am able, (May 1st I hope) I'm moving from my 50/50 split C & S to all C
C fund seems to me to be a hedge for a true buy n holder limited to the TSP funds. I never got that about our beloved 'Birchy'. If one were a true buy n holder, without the bravado, one should see that the S fund, given the option between C or S, would be the fund of choice. Not to mention that the largest holding in the S fund is Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway, which has averaged over 20% yearly over the past 20 years, 1350% since 1990. vs. the S&P 500 @ 280%. S, I, F, and G are the players. C is really superfluous.
P
Paladinxx
Guest
Re: Birchtree's account talk
It needs to cut that out! :laugh:
Someone needs to tell the S fund that it's time to rest now after the long 7-year run...
It needs to cut that out! :laugh:
Bullitt
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 73
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Good link. I just noticed that my Japan Small Caps took a run at resistance today so they must not care too much about 'inflation' headlines.
Good link. I just noticed that my Japan Small Caps took a run at resistance today so they must not care too much about 'inflation' headlines.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Think about this for a moment - now that real estate has become a down sector that is expected not to improve for several more years. Where will the money go? That's right, into stocks and that does worry me. A home bought in 1978 appreciated an average 5.3% a year through 2007, while the SPX delivered a 9.9% return during the same period according to figures from the National Association of Realtors.
Think about this for a moment - now that real estate has become a down sector that is expected not to improve for several more years. Where will the money go? That's right, into stocks and that does worry me. A home bought in 1978 appreciated an average 5.3% a year through 2007, while the SPX delivered a 9.9% return during the same period according to figures from the National Association of Realtors.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
With the SPX positioned just under major resistance at 1408, the next two market sessions will depend on the Federal Reserve or how they are interpreted by investors. If we get a breakout this will induce some serious short covering as well as individual buying. For me SPX of 1437 solidifies the Jan - April bottoming process and will intuitively signal better days ahead with a primary trendshift. Patiently watching the Ferdinand seismograph for any subtle activity that could explode into a bullish stampede. You remember what those feel like, right? You chicletts can fuggettaboutit because you will miss the trajectory - simply remain warm and cozy on that lily pad, afterall it's only money over safety.
With the SPX positioned just under major resistance at 1408, the next two market sessions will depend on the Federal Reserve or how they are interpreted by investors. If we get a breakout this will induce some serious short covering as well as individual buying. For me SPX of 1437 solidifies the Jan - April bottoming process and will intuitively signal better days ahead with a primary trendshift. Patiently watching the Ferdinand seismograph for any subtle activity that could explode into a bullish stampede. You remember what those feel like, right? You chicletts can fuggettaboutit because you will miss the trajectory - simply remain warm and cozy on that lily pad, afterall it's only money over safety.
Similar threads
