Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand, have you noticed there is a bull market in the agriculture sector. I wonder if any one else owns Lindsay Corporation (LNN) besides us. That stock is currently at $118.24 and possibly heading higher. I'll tell you all where I got in: 6/6/07 at $34.12, 6/22/07 at $43.71, 8/01/07 at $40.28 and I'm going to let my profits run until they declare a split. All my ag stocks are in strong rally mode and the temptation is to peel off some profits - I last took some off of Mosaic (MOS) at $122 and today it's at $133. Be right and sit tight - inflation, what inflation. The trains are running down the tracks and this old bull is trying to stay in front of them. My bet is still for a run to Dow 17,500 by the end of the year.

 

[BamaAF]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand, have you noticed there is a bull market in the agriculture sector. I wonder if any one else owns Lindsay Corporation (LNN) besides us. That stock is currently at $118.24 and possibly heading higher. I'll tell you all where I got in: 6/6/07 at $34.12, 6/22/07 at $43.71, 8/01/07 at $40.28 and I'm going to let my profits run until they declare a split. All my ag stocks are in strong rally mode and the temptation is to peel off some profits - I last took some off of Mosaic (MOS) at $122 and today it's at $133. Be right and sit tight - inflation, what inflation. The trains are running down the tracks and this old bull is trying to stay in front of them. My bet is still for a run to Dow 17,500 by the end of the year.

Nice profits there

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I don't really want to declare any more profits for this year - I will only do it as a sacrifice to raise funds to buy more stock. I'm more concerned about capital appreciation than capital preservation - I like to accumulate shares. Last year I was very active during the corrections with 19 sales and 522 purchases. I've done most of my buying and will circle back to add to my positions when they slip - like the other day when my AZZ was down over 6 points - a perfect time to acquire more shares. My plan for the summer is to let my dividend reinvestments carry me forward. I believe we are still in a mega trend secular bull market - more gains to come. I've got a nice ride going on in CSX Corp (CSX), I'm in as low as $15.83 back in 4/23/04 and have progressively added to my positions with the last purchase on 7/27/07 at $46.94 - I think the price today is around $60. Be right and sit tight.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand, do we know anyone else that may own Bunge (BG) or CF Industries (CF)? I'm getting a little nervous about these mega moves but am trying to remain creative so I can stay long.

 

[ExtremeWX]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree,
What system/broker are you using to purchase your stocks?
I gather that you do TSP and other freelance investing on your own????
Thanks!
Bryan

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

ExtremeWX,

I keep my oceanic account at Merrill Lynch and fish for my stocks on my own. I've always prefered to make my own mistakes and therefore when applicable to sing my own praises. I started buying MOS at $7 several years ago before agrculture was recognized - last year and into 2006 I started buying infrastructure for the energy sector and am now starting to gather some gains in this area. I've even been buying in the housing and materials sector while pricing is a value - know anybody that dares to buy this sector. I've always liked being a contrarian, especially when the technique continues to be profitable. It does take time for the setups to kick in - that's why I keep 228 individual stocks in the portfolio.

 

[love-to-bike]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

ExtremeWX,

I've always prefered to make my own mistakes and therefore when applicable to sing my own praises.

Sorry, but you should probably liquidate all you money in the TSP - the board knows better than you and dictates what limited moves you can take. Bung holes.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I keep my oceanic account at Merrill Lynch and fish for my stocks on my own. I've always prefered to make my own mistakes and therefore when applicable to sing my own praises. I started buying MOS at $7 several years ago before agrculture was recognized - last year and into 2006 I started buying infrastructure for the energy sector and am now starting to gather some gains in this area. I've even been buying in the housing and materials sector while pricing is a value - know anybody that dares to buy this sector. I've always liked being a contrarian, especially when the technique continues to be profitable. It does take time for the setups to kick in - that's why I keep 228 individual stocks in the portfolio.

Birch - you are one ROCK SOLID dude - very cool man

This is one of those days I'm glad to be onboard :nuts:

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I believe we are still in a mega trend secular bull market - more gains to come. Be right and sit tight.

Birch,

When did this mega trend secular bull start? S&P 500 hit a low of $4.50 in May of 1932. It's been higher ever since.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm happy with my TSP account -I've never had a problem being limited with IFTs since I'm basically a buy and holder with a longer term view - simply be right and sit tight. I do have a tendency to irritate some members but it's my money and besides friends do let friends buy and hold.

If any member would care to view my oceanic account I posted it back in December I believe under the Short Term Outlook thread under between now and christmas post #30. Ignore the conversation with Griffin - he's old news by now and apparently out of pocket. Unless this noise brings him out ....

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Futurestrader,

The current secular bull market actually started in August 1982. I believe we have been in the early stages of an Elliott Primary wave 3 and are now finishing up an intermediate wave 2 inside this 3 of 3 of 3. This mega trend secular bull market has years yet to run - with 3 1/2 trillion dollars on the side lines anything can happen. I don't want to miss a single day so I'll continue to be a cycle rider - love that Ducati. IBM is currently doing the rock -n-roll thing up 7 points after hours.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

" The message of the bond market is one of the more exciting and optimistic messages being sent anywhere in the financial markets right now... The collective message of the bond market is one that is being almost entirely ignored by the financial press. While millions of investors are caught up in the past, cowering under their Datsuns waiting for the next financial bomb to drop, the bond market is screaming to all that will listen, "The worst is over - the economy will improve."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-9985.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"A steep decline while painful at the time is actually a highly bullish way for a market to consolidate and re-energize. In the short-term, a rally up to SPX 1440 can be expected. Once the SPX breaks over 1440, it should start a self-reinforcing upside cascade that brings in billions of dollars from the sidelines, pushing the SPX relentlessly higher. This could be one of those surprising rallies that Birchtree has been predicting where you just never get a chance to buy in on a pull-back."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-9991.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand, do you remember when we both signed up for this message board? I recall we were politely informed by several of the more illustrious and fatuous membership that our buy and hold technique was unwelcome and certainly unappreciated. Well I'm sorry about all the current turmoil that is being experienced by some members regarding their IFT difficulties. But Karma has a way of working things out. I'll continue to remain an evangelical buy and holder and will mind my own business because friends do let friends buy and hold. The bottom line is that there remains tremendous opportunity within the guidelines presented by TSP - the days of chasing momentum are numbered and members will be required to begin thinking longer term which can be very profitable. Be right and sit tight. Chastise me if you will but rules are rules.

 

[weatherweenie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

...rules are rules.

That's the pisser in all of this. Those of use that were actively managing our accounts were playing within the rules set forth by the TSP Board.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand perhaps now would be a good time to update the kind folks on how the oceanic account has faired. At the January 22, '08 bottom the account had been devalued to the tune of $300K or a little more - most of this pain was self generated because I bought every correction starting in Feb'07 as we were heading to the well. The more assets you own the greater the potential loss when the market is going in the wrong direction - but I surely have some good value pricing. My discipline has always been to not cut and run but to absorb the declines and add to the collection of wanton wall flowers. Owning the holy grail is the answer to this dilemma along with reasonable diversification. The 522 stock purchases I made during these corrections is now starting to pay off and I fully expect to have an even higher valuation when we reach the previous highs of October 9th, '07. All of my asset base is still intact and now comes the inherrent capital appreciation. I'm currently only $137K off my previous peak and my anticipation is that this account will exceed the $2M mark sometime this year. I have no idea how far this market will take me but I'll remain creative to stay long and if we do top out around DJIA of 17,500 I can only surmise. I believe we are in a mega trend secular bull market that has years left to run and there will always be intermittant corrections along the way - there is no bear market and there will be no recession. You simply have to be right and sit tight. I rode the triple bottoms of July'02, October'02, March '03 and January'08 and lived to go forward to make more woopy - the portfolio redeemer has been dividend reinvestments and tolerating the acceptance of self-inflicted pain. Now some of my wall flowers are turing into princesses and they will at some point be released to independence to raise funds to accumulate more boring and unglamorous wall flowers - but I don't want to sell this year if possible, I simply don't want to take the profits unless absolutely necessary. Because I refused to adhere to the crowd noise of a bear market and recession my confidence remains substantial to ride the cycles on my Ducati - the next great bull leg is just over the next valley.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Dennis,

My good friend Ferdinand is the Disney cartoon bull that prefered to smell the flowers and was opposed to fighting in the bull ring. He's my financial advisor and confidant. When no one wants to talk to me because I have agitated - I remain relevant by conversing with him. He loves sweet brown Sugar - unrequited of course - she just slams his hooves in the barn door. Tomorrow has the possibility of being an absolute slobber knocker - maybe another 400 point follow through that traps many of the short hair bears. I relish the thought for the street to run red with bear blood.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand perhaps now would be a good time to update the kind folks on how the oceanic account has faired. At the January 22, '08 bottom the account had been devalued to the tune of $300K or a little more - most of this pain was self generated because I bought every correction starting in Feb'07 as we were heading to the well. The more assets you own the greater the potential loss when the market is going in the wrong direction - but I surely have some good value pricing. My discipline has always been to not cut and run but to absorb the declines and add to the collection of wanton wall flowers. Owning the holy grail is the answer to this dilemma along with reasonable diversification. The 522 stock purchases I made during these corrections is now starting to pay off and I fully expect to have an even higher valuation when we reach the previous highs of October 9th, '07. All of my asset base is still intact and now comes the inherrent capital appreciation. I'm currently only $137K off my previous peak and my anticipation is that this account will exceed the $2M mark sometime this year. I have no idea how far this market will take me but I'll remain creative to stay long and if we do top out around DJIA of 17,500 I can only surmise. I believe we are in a mega trend secular bull market that has years left to run and there will always be intermittant corrections along the way - there is no bear market and there will be no recession. You simply have to be right and sit tight. I rode the triple bottoms of July'02, October'02, March '03 and January'08 and lived to go forward to make more woopy - the portfolio redeemer has been dividend reinvestments and tolerating the acceptance of self-inflicted pain. Now some of my wall flowers are turing into princesses and they will at some point be released to independence to raise funds to accumulate more boring and unglamorous wall flowers - but I don't want to sell this year if possible, I simply don't want to take the profits unless absolutely necessary. Because I refused to adhere to the crowd noise of a bear market and recession my confidence remains substantial to ride the cycles on my Ducati - the next great bull leg is just over the next valley.

Seriously Birchtree it's not always an "attractive concept" to get out the ol' financially measuring stick. Sometimes it can be downright embarrassing. Certain amounts kept in mind as goals are always a good thing but what some would consider an "oceanic account" and announced about on a regular basis might not be what it seems to be in the light of day. I understanding the updating process and investing philosophy for the masses but sometimes things are best kept in perspective and sometimes to ones' self. Just a little humble food for thought. Take it as you wish. Best of luck with your "oceanic account"

Greg

PS: Listening to Tasmin Archer's "Sleeping Satellite" accoustic version could be very relaxing - you should give it a try. It's on her CD ShipBuilding.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I relish the thought for the street to run red with bear blood.

I totaly agree Birchtree, It's been a while since the Bear has spilled
it's blood on the streets. Couldn't happen fast enough for me !

"Can I get some mustard with that relish" :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Caymanbrac12,

My oceanic account has taken me a life time to build and I've gained immeasurable experience in the process of accumulating my stocks. This account has been posted for all to see in the light of day. I'm hoping to make my first $100K week this week - if today holds I'll come very close. The point of my posting this account is that with solid investing and discipline anyone else can achieve the same degree of success. Your Dad was a role model for me to keep pushing ahead. Check the Short Term Outlook thread under between now and christmas post #30 - it hasn't changed since it was posted. I plan at this point to continue to be right and sit tight. I invest a great deal of my time on trying to remain creative to stay long and continue to be right and sit tight. I've got the correct approach. Why not share my ideas with others to help them learn - there is a lot more to investing than chasing momentum plays and allowing a peek into my style may encourage another member to step back and use the longer term approach - after all I am an evangelical buy and holder most of the time. Good to see you continue to post and yes I do enjoy your chaff - we all need a rub on occassion.