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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
whitemingo
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 1
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
Pat Ferdinand on the head and wisper in his ear to keep the end of the day Bull push going back to green.
Birch,
Pat Ferdinand on the head and wisper in his ear to keep the end of the day Bull push going back to green.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Tomorrow could easily be a green day. My LNN (Lindsay Manufacturing) was up +13.73 today, however, my MOS (Mosaic Co.) was down -12.54, should have been a wash but wasn't because I own more MOS than LNN, obviously some profit taking in the commodity arena. If this market remains in a trading range for the rest of the year I won't complain - it's a sacrifice I can make while I'm getting choice prices with my dividend reinvestments. It looks like yields are heading for a shortage outside of stocks. That's why I put my daughter into all the toxic waste we could afford - it's the accumulation of income via dividend reinvestment and as a secondary goal we get more shares. Since I am a profet of the buy and hold technique I will continue to hold 73%C and 27%I fund while the chiclets settle into the Lilly pad. We are processing a bottom and the move off the bottom can be explosive - most will believe we are only having a rally in a bear market - this is not my opinion. We are only in a correction that is still within the confines of a normal give back for the bull market which started in 2002.
Tomorrow could easily be a green day. My LNN (Lindsay Manufacturing) was up +13.73 today, however, my MOS (Mosaic Co.) was down -12.54, should have been a wash but wasn't because I own more MOS than LNN, obviously some profit taking in the commodity arena. If this market remains in a trading range for the rest of the year I won't complain - it's a sacrifice I can make while I'm getting choice prices with my dividend reinvestments. It looks like yields are heading for a shortage outside of stocks. That's why I put my daughter into all the toxic waste we could afford - it's the accumulation of income via dividend reinvestment and as a secondary goal we get more shares. Since I am a profet of the buy and hold technique I will continue to hold 73%C and 27%I fund while the chiclets settle into the Lilly pad. We are processing a bottom and the move off the bottom can be explosive - most will believe we are only having a rally in a bear market - this is not my opinion. We are only in a correction that is still within the confines of a normal give back for the bull market which started in 2002.
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Some of us chiclets have been on the lilly pad for awhile - cluck cluck!!
Some of us chiclets have been on the lilly pad for awhile - cluck cluck!!
robo
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 470
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birchtree,
From Henry Today:
The tape itself is now also getting better. There are positive divergences all over. The weakest sectors today were energy and materials which are all constructive to the U.S. consumer and U.S. homeowner.
Keep the faith.
Henry
My opinion is we shall see!
Robo
Birchtree,
From Henry Today:
The tape itself is now also getting better. There are positive divergences all over. The weakest sectors today were energy and materials which are all constructive to the U.S. consumer and U.S. homeowner.
Keep the faith.
Henry
My opinion is we shall see!
Robo
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The following is further information to Bullitt's post #352 and is provided by Merrill Technical Research Analyst Mary Ann Bartels.
"Since April 1980, there have been only 47 days (including the latest one) when the S&P rallied by more than 3% and only 19 times when common stock breadth (as reported by Barron's) satisfied the 90% requirement. This was only the fifth time in the past 28 years that the S&P posted both a rally in excess of 3% and a 90% day from common stock breadth. The potential for a cyclical bottom increases. The other times occurred in August 1982, October 1987, and January 1988. Those dates are associated with the beginning of two of the great bull market rallies in the last quarter century. To put those dates in context (and not including the current correction), the rally from the 1982 low to 1987 is the third-longest rally in modern history (since 1929) without a 20% correction; the rally from 1987 lows to 2000 is the second longest. (The longest was 1949-61). Add sentiment to price and breadth. The latest percentage of bearish advisors, as provided by Investors Intelligence, came in at 43.3%. That edged out the October 2002 figure of 43.2% to become the highest such reading since September 1998."
Is it no wonder that I continue to buy and hold my current position? If the next bull leg is anything like 1982 or 1998 - the money will be ca-ching. I remember riding the lows into August 1982 and shaking the piggy bank to stay in - and I made serious money for me back then in ten months time. I've spoken about it previously. I dare not guess where this market could take me - but it will be tremendous. All I have to do is be right and sit tight - this thing is wound tight and will explode upward - can't be on the Lilly pad when that happens. I mean if staid Marton Biggs is talking a 1000 point day - who knows where the next top will reside - my thinking is Dow 17,000 by the end of the year. I know many members can't fathom that at this point in time, but that is just what the bull likes - he does not want you along for the ride. Snort.
The following is further information to Bullitt's post #352 and is provided by Merrill Technical Research Analyst Mary Ann Bartels.
"Since April 1980, there have been only 47 days (including the latest one) when the S&P rallied by more than 3% and only 19 times when common stock breadth (as reported by Barron's) satisfied the 90% requirement. This was only the fifth time in the past 28 years that the S&P posted both a rally in excess of 3% and a 90% day from common stock breadth. The potential for a cyclical bottom increases. The other times occurred in August 1982, October 1987, and January 1988. Those dates are associated with the beginning of two of the great bull market rallies in the last quarter century. To put those dates in context (and not including the current correction), the rally from the 1982 low to 1987 is the third-longest rally in modern history (since 1929) without a 20% correction; the rally from 1987 lows to 2000 is the second longest. (The longest was 1949-61). Add sentiment to price and breadth. The latest percentage of bearish advisors, as provided by Investors Intelligence, came in at 43.3%. That edged out the October 2002 figure of 43.2% to become the highest such reading since September 1998."
Is it no wonder that I continue to buy and hold my current position? If the next bull leg is anything like 1982 or 1998 - the money will be ca-ching. I remember riding the lows into August 1982 and shaking the piggy bank to stay in - and I made serious money for me back then in ten months time. I've spoken about it previously. I dare not guess where this market could take me - but it will be tremendous. All I have to do is be right and sit tight - this thing is wound tight and will explode upward - can't be on the Lilly pad when that happens. I mean if staid Marton Biggs is talking a 1000 point day - who knows where the next top will reside - my thinking is Dow 17,000 by the end of the year. I know many members can't fathom that at this point in time, but that is just what the bull likes - he does not want you along for the ride. Snort.
Gumby
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 23
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Is it no wonder that I continue to buy and hold my current position? If the next bull leg is anything like 1982 or 1998 - the money will be ca-ching. I remember riding the lows into August 1982 and shaking the piggy bank to stay in - and I made serious money for me back then in ten months time. I've spoken about it previously. I dare not guess where this market could take me - but it will be tremendous. All I have to do is be right and sit tight - this thing is wound tight and will explode upward - can't be on the Lilly pad when that happens. I mean if staid Marton Biggs is talking a 1000 point day - who knows where the next top will reside - my thinking is Dow 17,000 by the end of the year. I know many members can't fathom that at this point in time, but that is just what the bull likes - he does not want you along for the ride. Snort. "
Birch,
Do you really believe what your saying? If so.....I hope you really have DEEP pockets and can afford to stay in the market. And yes, I cannot fathom Dow 17,000 by years end. Tell me how that is possible with people losing homes by the thousands, oil so expensive that many people can hardly afford to drive to work, wars that is costing the economy billions, election year politics, FED intervention, and inflation. Looks like the Dow will be closer to 7,000 to me. Growl.
I like your perspective....interesting reading!
"Is it no wonder that I continue to buy and hold my current position? If the next bull leg is anything like 1982 or 1998 - the money will be ca-ching. I remember riding the lows into August 1982 and shaking the piggy bank to stay in - and I made serious money for me back then in ten months time. I've spoken about it previously. I dare not guess where this market could take me - but it will be tremendous. All I have to do is be right and sit tight - this thing is wound tight and will explode upward - can't be on the Lilly pad when that happens. I mean if staid Marton Biggs is talking a 1000 point day - who knows where the next top will reside - my thinking is Dow 17,000 by the end of the year. I know many members can't fathom that at this point in time, but that is just what the bull likes - he does not want you along for the ride. Snort. "
Birch,
Do you really believe what your saying? If so.....I hope you really have DEEP pockets and can afford to stay in the market. And yes, I cannot fathom Dow 17,000 by years end. Tell me how that is possible with people losing homes by the thousands, oil so expensive that many people can hardly afford to drive to work, wars that is costing the economy billions, election year politics, FED intervention, and inflation. Looks like the Dow will be closer to 7,000 to me. Growl.
I like your perspective....interesting reading!
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Gumby,
I certainly believe what I say or I wouldn't say it - the majority of my money and my wife's money are on the thin blue line. I have no reputation to protect so I don't mind doubters or criticism because I know what is on the way. I'm sorry to hear about all the real estate losses, but that is actually healthy for the market and the economy. Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. Besides, the A/D line is not diverting, and its very rare that price will top without A/D line divergence. I'm a contrarian and you can't do what everyone else does and expect different results. The economy may slow in 2008, but that doesn't necessarily mean bad news for stocks. Slower growth could be a boon as investors lose their fear that a sharp downturn or meddlesome inflation is on the way. Sometimes a moderate economy can actually extend the amount of time that the expansion can continue. Optimism about the economy in the second half is what will drive the stock market rally going forward. I also believe that time in the market is typically more rewarding than timing the market.
Gumby,
I certainly believe what I say or I wouldn't say it - the majority of my money and my wife's money are on the thin blue line. I have no reputation to protect so I don't mind doubters or criticism because I know what is on the way. I'm sorry to hear about all the real estate losses, but that is actually healthy for the market and the economy. Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. Besides, the A/D line is not diverting, and its very rare that price will top without A/D line divergence. I'm a contrarian and you can't do what everyone else does and expect different results. The economy may slow in 2008, but that doesn't necessarily mean bad news for stocks. Slower growth could be a boon as investors lose their fear that a sharp downturn or meddlesome inflation is on the way. Sometimes a moderate economy can actually extend the amount of time that the expansion can continue. Optimism about the economy in the second half is what will drive the stock market rally going forward. I also believe that time in the market is typically more rewarding than timing the market.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch - That couldn't be said any better. Very well put my friend.
Birch - That couldn't be said any better. Very well put my friend.
Gumby
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 23
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
Don't take what I said as criticism. I appreciate your point of view and outlook. I just don't see how things can turn around so fast.....maybe I am not seeing the whole big picture. I do agree that the economy should settle down somewhat later this year......assuming we don't have more inflation or a terrorist strike. I am ready for more optimism. I am optimistic every morning when I open my TSP website account to see the results......unfortunately hasn't been to good lately.....but getting better.
Birch,
Don't take what I said as criticism. I appreciate your point of view and outlook. I just don't see how things can turn around so fast.....maybe I am not seeing the whole big picture. I do agree that the economy should settle down somewhat later this year......assuming we don't have more inflation or a terrorist strike. I am ready for more optimism. I am optimistic every morning when I open my TSP website account to see the results......unfortunately hasn't been to good lately.....but getting better.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Henry To says "As of Friday at the close, the ratio between money market fund assets and the market cap of the S&P 500 rose to 28.15% - an astronomically high level that broke all previous record highs - including the month end February 2003 high and the month end July 1982 highs. The October 1990 high - the last time the U.S. stock market gave us a once in a lifetime buying opportunity - has now been blown out of the water. The global capital that is sitting on the sidelines waiting to be invested is also at record highs."
Can't you all smell it - the sweet smell of superlative bull manure is once again wafting throughtout the board. Pay attention to catch this train as it's leaving the station - don't wait until it's many miles down the track. Even if you have to mail in your IFT it would be worth it to come off the Lilly pad and get some action. I may initiate a move to gather another 3% of the I fund before the month is up.
Henry To says "As of Friday at the close, the ratio between money market fund assets and the market cap of the S&P 500 rose to 28.15% - an astronomically high level that broke all previous record highs - including the month end February 2003 high and the month end July 1982 highs. The October 1990 high - the last time the U.S. stock market gave us a once in a lifetime buying opportunity - has now been blown out of the water. The global capital that is sitting on the sidelines waiting to be invested is also at record highs."
Can't you all smell it - the sweet smell of superlative bull manure is once again wafting throughtout the board. Pay attention to catch this train as it's leaving the station - don't wait until it's many miles down the track. Even if you have to mail in your IFT it would be worth it to come off the Lilly pad and get some action. I may initiate a move to gather another 3% of the I fund before the month is up.
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm smelling it too Birch! The market is getting fertile... the Dow pushed at 12,000 four times in 2006 before the big rush in 2007 to 14,000 and more. We are in a correction period, 10%-15% should be all, and then the gains will come slower but steadily. The housing burst creates opportunity, it just takes some time for the forces to realign.
I'm smelling it too Birch! The market is getting fertile... the Dow pushed at 12,000 four times in 2006 before the big rush in 2007 to 14,000 and more. We are in a correction period, 10%-15% should be all, and then the gains will come slower but steadily. The housing burst creates opportunity, it just takes some time for the forces to realign.
caymanbrac12
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 9
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Current and past examples of the psychology of bear markets:
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab...ket/recent_commentary/a_bear_of_a_market.html
Greg
:worried::nuts:
shorting one day and going long the next - the shorts covered before the three day weekend so we got a little pop.
Current and past examples of the psychology of bear markets:
- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan described the Long-Term Capital Management implosion as the "worst crisis" in his 60-year working life.
- Merrill Lynch's economist David Rosenberg recently said, "We confess that we have been in the business for 25 years and have never—and repeat never—seen a cycle like this one."
- Investor George Soros recently said this is "the worse market crisis in 60 years." That harkens back to his reaction to Black Monday in 1987 when he cried, "This is 1929."
- Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University, having nailed this crisis so far in terms of magnitude and timing, noted this is "the worst housing recession in U.S. history."
- Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers recently declared that there is a "very real risk" of this swoon becoming "the most serious economic downturn in a generation."
- In 1999, Time Magazine anointed then-Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, then-Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and Alan Greenspan as "The Committee to Save the World," as they intervened in the Mexican peso crisis.
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab...ket/recent_commentary/a_bear_of_a_market.html
Greg
:worried::nuts:shorting one day and going long the next - the shorts covered before the three day weekend so we got a little pop.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Bull and Bear Markets, According to Oaktree's Howard Marks.
"Fortunately, one of the most valuable lessons of my career came in the early 1970s, when I learned about the three stages of a bull market:
The first, when a few forward-looking people begin to believe things will get better,
The second, when most investors realize improvement is actually under way, and
The third, when everyone's sure things will get better forever.
Buying during the first stage can be highly profitable, while buying during the last will carry you over the cliff with the rest of the herd. Relatively few people were eager to buy at the depressed prices of 2002-03. But buying grew in 2004-05 as prices rose and bargains became scarcer, and the pace became fevered in the 2006 and the first half of 2007.
To aid in your consideration of the future, I've formulated the converse of the above, the three stages of a bear market:
When just a few prudent investors recognize that despite the prevailing bullishness, things won't always be rosy;
When most investors recognize things are deyteriorating; and
When everyone's convinced things can only get worse.
Certainly we are well into the second of these three stages. Ther's been lots of bad news and write offs. More people recognize the dangers inherent in things like innovation, leverage, derivatives, counter party risk and mark-to-market accounting. And increasingly the problems seem insolvable.
One of these days, though, we will reach the third stage, and the (TSP) herd will give up on there being a solution. And unless the financial world really does end, we're likely to encounter the investment opportunities of a lifetime. Major bottoms occur when everyone forgets that the tide also comes in. Those are the times we live for."
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals
Bull and Bear Markets, According to Oaktree's Howard Marks.
"Fortunately, one of the most valuable lessons of my career came in the early 1970s, when I learned about the three stages of a bull market:
The first, when a few forward-looking people begin to believe things will get better,
The second, when most investors realize improvement is actually under way, and
The third, when everyone's sure things will get better forever.
Buying during the first stage can be highly profitable, while buying during the last will carry you over the cliff with the rest of the herd. Relatively few people were eager to buy at the depressed prices of 2002-03. But buying grew in 2004-05 as prices rose and bargains became scarcer, and the pace became fevered in the 2006 and the first half of 2007.
To aid in your consideration of the future, I've formulated the converse of the above, the three stages of a bear market:
When just a few prudent investors recognize that despite the prevailing bullishness, things won't always be rosy;
When most investors recognize things are deyteriorating; and
When everyone's convinced things can only get worse.
Certainly we are well into the second of these three stages. Ther's been lots of bad news and write offs. More people recognize the dangers inherent in things like innovation, leverage, derivatives, counter party risk and mark-to-market accounting. And increasingly the problems seem insolvable.
One of these days, though, we will reach the third stage, and the (TSP) herd will give up on there being a solution. And unless the financial world really does end, we're likely to encounter the investment opportunities of a lifetime. Major bottoms occur when everyone forgets that the tide also comes in. Those are the times we live for."
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
From Richard Band - "Fear and loathing! We're getting to the point now where people are down right scared to buy stocks, and some folks are even beginning to feel a sort of revulsion towardd the market. Ironically, though, that's when the buying opportunities are best."
http://www.marketwatch.com by Peter Brimelow
From Richard Band - "Fear and loathing! We're getting to the point now where people are down right scared to buy stocks, and some folks are even beginning to feel a sort of revulsion towardd the market. Ironically, though, that's when the buying opportunities are best."
http://www.marketwatch.com by Peter Brimelow
robo
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 470
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birchtree,
We now have the Double Barrel Buy Signal and one of the best bear traders I follow is now cautious with no index puts, Tim Knight. What does it mean? It means we could be very close to a nice Bear Market Rally. A Big, Powerful, Badass, Bear Market Rally. The kind that only you could dream about my friend.
Aggressive traders will be watching next week to see if the Bulls can keep it going. We are getting overbought so we could see some weakness early next week. Which should be a good time to buy some stuff for a trade. LOL Yeah, I think Oscar might even give us the Green Arrow sometime next week. And this trader never falls in love with the upside, only money!
I think we could be setting up for the mother-of-all-short squeezes and then sometime later this year we head back down to shake out all the new little bulls. Get-em all Bullish before you take it back. That's how the crooks work getting the retail investor. They will never shake you out and get your shares my friend.
Now, I know you personally might not care about this, but some of the little Bulls stopping by might like to here some good old fashion Bullish Crap! Of course I could be wrong and we could sell-off another 50 S&P points, but if we do I'm a buyer. The Bears will fight hard, but they will turn on a dime if they think they can make money on a short-term rally. This is something the retail investor still has to learn when they listen to the PermaBears. No offensive since you are a PermaBull, and always Bullish!
Tim Knight is a daily read for me:
"What a week. I'm ready for a break. So this is going to be short."
I know some will consider me a traitor to the cause, but I assure you, my bullish outfit is
(a) temporary and (b) not complete.
I've still got a variety of puts, mostly in oil-related items. But I've accumulated a lot of calls today, since I think we could be in for a nice-sized bounce.
I will note at this point I have no index positions of any kind, either bullish or bearish. I am too uncertain about the near-term direction of indexes to take any position.
http://slopeofhope.com/2008/03/calls_of_the_wild.htm
Comments from a TA about the Double Barrel:
Tuesday's rally was on 18 to 1 advancing vs. declining share volume. The previous week we had a similar rally that was on 9 to 1 advancing vs. declining volume.
This is a "Double Barrel Buy Signal." The last such signal was not followed by the expected advance, but since the early 1980s, all previous such signals were accurate.
Twenty-five years worth. Most occurred before substantial advances that tacked on at least 10-14% over the following six months to a year.
Ok, enough Bull Crap.... I know you have been taking the Bear Crap lately so I hope you enjoyed the Bull Crap for a change.
Take Care!
I think I will stop by and shoot-the-bull with my friend Bullitt later and talk about the Top Timers and the "Line in the Sand".... I'm also looking forward to Henry's comments this weekend and Bullitt might have some thoughts about Henry's comments from his board.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9748.htm
http://www.marketthoughts.com/
Robo
Birchtree,
We now have the Double Barrel Buy Signal and one of the best bear traders I follow is now cautious with no index puts, Tim Knight. What does it mean? It means we could be very close to a nice Bear Market Rally. A Big, Powerful, Badass, Bear Market Rally. The kind that only you could dream about my friend.
Aggressive traders will be watching next week to see if the Bulls can keep it going. We are getting overbought so we could see some weakness early next week. Which should be a good time to buy some stuff for a trade. LOL Yeah, I think Oscar might even give us the Green Arrow sometime next week. And this trader never falls in love with the upside, only money!
I think we could be setting up for the mother-of-all-short squeezes and then sometime later this year we head back down to shake out all the new little bulls. Get-em all Bullish before you take it back. That's how the crooks work getting the retail investor. They will never shake you out and get your shares my friend.
Now, I know you personally might not care about this, but some of the little Bulls stopping by might like to here some good old fashion Bullish Crap! Of course I could be wrong and we could sell-off another 50 S&P points, but if we do I'm a buyer. The Bears will fight hard, but they will turn on a dime if they think they can make money on a short-term rally. This is something the retail investor still has to learn when they listen to the PermaBears. No offensive since you are a PermaBull, and always Bullish!
Tim Knight is a daily read for me:
"What a week. I'm ready for a break. So this is going to be short."
I know some will consider me a traitor to the cause, but I assure you, my bullish outfit is
(a) temporary and (b) not complete.
I've still got a variety of puts, mostly in oil-related items. But I've accumulated a lot of calls today, since I think we could be in for a nice-sized bounce.
I will note at this point I have no index positions of any kind, either bullish or bearish. I am too uncertain about the near-term direction of indexes to take any position.
http://slopeofhope.com/2008/03/calls_of_the_wild.htm
Comments from a TA about the Double Barrel:
Tuesday's rally was on 18 to 1 advancing vs. declining share volume. The previous week we had a similar rally that was on 9 to 1 advancing vs. declining volume.
This is a "Double Barrel Buy Signal." The last such signal was not followed by the expected advance, but since the early 1980s, all previous such signals were accurate.
Twenty-five years worth. Most occurred before substantial advances that tacked on at least 10-14% over the following six months to a year.
Ok, enough Bull Crap.... I know you have been taking the Bear Crap lately so I hope you enjoyed the Bull Crap for a change.
Take Care!
I think I will stop by and shoot-the-bull with my friend Bullitt later and talk about the Top Timers and the "Line in the Sand".... I'm also looking forward to Henry's comments this weekend and Bullitt might have some thoughts about Henry's comments from his board.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9748.htm
http://www.marketthoughts.com/
Robo
Last edited:
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