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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
robo
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 471
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Bullitt,
It will be interesting to read over his comments this weekend and see if he gives a buy signal. Fib is holding for conformation of the rally before giving a buy signal.
The TA's will be looking over the Voodoo#@####$Oscillators this weekend to try and figure things out. We could see some serious buyer anxiety the next few weeks. End of the month, end of the quarter, I must make my fund look good. It's no time to put on big short's.... The pressure will be on next week and the battle continues....
Bullitt,
It will be interesting to read over his comments this weekend and see if he gives a buy signal. Fib is holding for conformation of the rally before giving a buy signal.
The TA's will be looking over the Voodoo#@####$Oscillators this weekend to try and figure things out. We could see some serious buyer anxiety the next few weeks. End of the month, end of the quarter, I must make my fund look good. It's no time to put on big short's.... The pressure will be on next week and the battle continues....
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I vividly remember August 1982 when I was much younger and not totally experienced enough yet to play in the big leagues - but I knew value when I saw it. I do recognize value when I see it - you just have to focus with vision many months into the future. There is so much cash now sitting on the sidelines waiting to be invested - if it all decides to move at once it'll be a gusher just like it was in 1982. I remember the head elf at Merrill a guy named Farrell was telling all his brokers to stay away from the bear trap and not get invested - I bought that bottom and over the next ten months made considerable dollars into the low hundreds of thousands. The same thing may just happen again. The papers were so full of negativity today - enough to scare any sane person away from the markets, that's perfect. The new and recently over leveraged home buyer will get to keep his lovely, oversized house and will be locked out of the market for a period of time - that is perfect. They should be buyers at Dow 17,000 and not Dow 12,300. We are approaching a near perfect setup to catch everyone off guard - except for us old timers hanging around who have been down this road before. I'm sitting over $300,000 light from this correction and ready to resume the mega trend secular bull market of 3 of 3 of 3. It will be glorious.
I vividly remember August 1982 when I was much younger and not totally experienced enough yet to play in the big leagues - but I knew value when I saw it. I do recognize value when I see it - you just have to focus with vision many months into the future. There is so much cash now sitting on the sidelines waiting to be invested - if it all decides to move at once it'll be a gusher just like it was in 1982. I remember the head elf at Merrill a guy named Farrell was telling all his brokers to stay away from the bear trap and not get invested - I bought that bottom and over the next ten months made considerable dollars into the low hundreds of thousands. The same thing may just happen again. The papers were so full of negativity today - enough to scare any sane person away from the markets, that's perfect. The new and recently over leveraged home buyer will get to keep his lovely, oversized house and will be locked out of the market for a period of time - that is perfect. They should be buyers at Dow 17,000 and not Dow 12,300. We are approaching a near perfect setup to catch everyone off guard - except for us old timers hanging around who have been down this road before. I'm sitting over $300,000 light from this correction and ready to resume the mega trend secular bull market of 3 of 3 of 3. It will be glorious.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Warrenlm,
I took my wife completely out of her AEPGX mutual fund sooner than originally planned - she only holds her PYODX (Pioneer fund) which tracks the S&P 500. We had a nice gain in the international fund so I decided to not look the gift horse in the mouth - on the other hand I can't resist a bargain for myself when I see one so I've been accumulating the I fund for myself as we've headed lower. Perhaps I have more solemn respect for her money than my own. She dollar cost averages on a monthly basis so is still getting some good buys with her current allocation. I plan to make one more purchase into the I fund for a 70% C fund and 30% I fund set up and will then let'er ride for the rest of the year - unless we explode to Dow 17,000 at which point I'll be pulling back some. Moreover, the 10-day moving average of the equity put/call ratio is now at 0.97 - also the highest level in the history of this indicator. Three months from now, many investors will look back, with hindsight, and recognize that this was the point to load up on U.S. common stocks. Those are wise words from Henry To.
Permabull #1
Warrenlm,
I took my wife completely out of her AEPGX mutual fund sooner than originally planned - she only holds her PYODX (Pioneer fund) which tracks the S&P 500. We had a nice gain in the international fund so I decided to not look the gift horse in the mouth - on the other hand I can't resist a bargain for myself when I see one so I've been accumulating the I fund for myself as we've headed lower. Perhaps I have more solemn respect for her money than my own. She dollar cost averages on a monthly basis so is still getting some good buys with her current allocation. I plan to make one more purchase into the I fund for a 70% C fund and 30% I fund set up and will then let'er ride for the rest of the year - unless we explode to Dow 17,000 at which point I'll be pulling back some. Moreover, the 10-day moving average of the equity put/call ratio is now at 0.97 - also the highest level in the history of this indicator. Three months from now, many investors will look back, with hindsight, and recognize that this was the point to load up on U.S. common stocks. Those are wise words from Henry To.
Permabull #1
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
After viewing the ranking page it appears that the mighty Thunder5 could be set for a breakout to the top echelon - the other top contenders will be relegated to snail-mail if they wish to reallocate. This does make life interesting.
After viewing the ranking page it appears that the mighty Thunder5 could be set for a breakout to the top echelon - the other top contenders will be relegated to snail-mail if they wish to reallocate. This does make life interesting.
qibovin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 6
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I
If anybody knows anything about these processes, please stand up. I will email, fax, sign, even monetary support, but I have no idea how these sort of legal things even start.
I
If anybody knows anything about these processes, please stand up. I will email, fax, sign, even monetary support, but I have no idea how these sort of legal things even start.
love-to-bike
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 7
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birchtree - please be careful when installing that new satellite!
http://www.kansascity.com/116/story/545396.html
Birchtree - please be careful when installing that new satellite!
http://www.kansascity.com/116/story/545396.html
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Ferdinand you stinky old bull - did we miss the bear market while we were away? Oh, you mean we ain't had no mean a$$ bear market yet - well perhaps we should continue to wait just awhile longer. You never know - some chiclett might get it right. We'll wait on SPX 1437 to solidify the bottom.
Ferdinand you stinky old bull - did we miss the bear market while we were away? Oh, you mean we ain't had no mean a$$ bear market yet - well perhaps we should continue to wait just awhile longer. You never know - some chiclett might get it right. We'll wait on SPX 1437 to solidify the bottom.
Corepuncher
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 40
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Bullitt,
I should be adding to GE at the $32.00 dollar price - but I'm going to wait on the dividend reinvestment to be paid on 4/26. I'm not doing any serious shopping at the moment - but I am peeking around in the train yard for some special buys. Do you want me to move over so you can get past the manure smell?
Bullitt,
I should be adding to GE at the $32.00 dollar price - but I'm going to wait on the dividend reinvestment to be paid on 4/26. I'm not doing any serious shopping at the moment - but I am peeking around in the train yard for some special buys. Do you want me to move over so you can get past the manure smell?
Bullitt
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 75
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I knew this little turbulence wasn't enough to knock you off. Actually, I was planning on drafting and taking it all in until Ferdinand gives me the thumbs up to break away. It's a long season.
Speaking of wrecks, I patrolled the Japanese train yards a few weeks ago. I'm thinking of heading back if I can muster up enough ammo, it looks like emotions should be high once again this week.
I knew this little turbulence wasn't enough to knock you off. Actually, I was planning on drafting and taking it all in until Ferdinand gives me the thumbs up to break away. It's a long season.
Speaking of wrecks, I patrolled the Japanese train yards a few weeks ago. I'm thinking of heading back if I can muster up enough ammo, it looks like emotions should be high once again this week.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
From Merrill - Mary Ann Bartels - Technical Research Analyst
"It is well known that the transportation indexes were breaking out of head and shoulders bottom formations. While both the S&P 500 and the DJIA remain range bound (1315-1400 and 12060-12600, respectively), they can be described as being in H&S base formations of their own. The completion of those patterns would project the S&P to 1500-1525 and the DJIA to 13700 to 13800. That said, there is a good dealm of intervening resistance beginning at 1450 for the S&P; lesser, but still important resistance exists for the DJIA, beginning at 13150. That makes it reasonable to expect a trading range over the next four to eight weeks as the right shoulders of the H&S bottom formations are built. That would coincide nicely with earnings season, when markets have a tendency to be choppy within a trading band. If this trading pattern were to develop, a good intermediate base would have formed that would lay the foundation for a summer rally. That rally, in turn, could achieve our first resistance objectives and perhaps even challenge last year's highs. Such a pattern would confirm that the cyclical bear market correction is over, in our view.
The number of NYSE stocks making new 52-week highs has consistently exceeded the number of new lows in recent weeks. Similarly, breadth and upside/downside volume ratios have had a bullish bias. There have been some comments that total volume has been shrinking, but average daily volume hit a record recently and the underlying 21-day moving average for volume is still in an overall uptrend."
And as Richard Russell recently said "The lows of October 2002 and January 2008 therefore represent nothing more than important secondary or cyclical correction bottoms."
From Merrill - Mary Ann Bartels - Technical Research Analyst
"It is well known that the transportation indexes were breaking out of head and shoulders bottom formations. While both the S&P 500 and the DJIA remain range bound (1315-1400 and 12060-12600, respectively), they can be described as being in H&S base formations of their own. The completion of those patterns would project the S&P to 1500-1525 and the DJIA to 13700 to 13800. That said, there is a good dealm of intervening resistance beginning at 1450 for the S&P; lesser, but still important resistance exists for the DJIA, beginning at 13150. That makes it reasonable to expect a trading range over the next four to eight weeks as the right shoulders of the H&S bottom formations are built. That would coincide nicely with earnings season, when markets have a tendency to be choppy within a trading band. If this trading pattern were to develop, a good intermediate base would have formed that would lay the foundation for a summer rally. That rally, in turn, could achieve our first resistance objectives and perhaps even challenge last year's highs. Such a pattern would confirm that the cyclical bear market correction is over, in our view.
The number of NYSE stocks making new 52-week highs has consistently exceeded the number of new lows in recent weeks. Similarly, breadth and upside/downside volume ratios have had a bullish bias. There have been some comments that total volume has been shrinking, but average daily volume hit a record recently and the underlying 21-day moving average for volume is still in an overall uptrend."
And as Richard Russell recently said "The lows of October 2002 and January 2008 therefore represent nothing more than important secondary or cyclical correction bottoms."
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"A Correction In Oil Prices? Energy stocks have lagged the run up in oil prices to record highs, which could be a sign that current crude prices are not sustainable."
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com
"A Correction In Oil Prices? Energy stocks have lagged the run up in oil prices to record highs, which could be a sign that current crude prices are not sustainable."
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Normally, concentrations of 90% down volume days have led to strong and sustained price upmoves. In the current climate of concentrated 90% down volume days, it is likely an important price bottom is being constructed, but how long this bottom will take to complete is the question. As of Friday April 11th, the NYSE has had thirteen 90% down volume days over the preceding 150 trading days. As Dennis FAA has previously stated; it will come with a vengence - there are more 400 point days in our future to the upside.
Normally, concentrations of 90% down volume days have led to strong and sustained price upmoves. In the current climate of concentrated 90% down volume days, it is likely an important price bottom is being constructed, but how long this bottom will take to complete is the question. As of Friday April 11th, the NYSE has had thirteen 90% down volume days over the preceding 150 trading days. As Dennis FAA has previously stated; it will come with a vengence - there are more 400 point days in our future to the upside.
