Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Tuesday was a 90% up day. Up volume on the NYSE represented almost precisely 90% of the combinred up and down volume on the exchange. This could potentially be a key reversal with the stock market perhaps discounting the worst that can be seen ahead. According to Bob Brinker, "The process of establishing a stock market correction bottom has unfolded in text-book fashion over the past two months. This process involves the establishment of an initial closing low, followed by a short-term rally, followed by testing of the area of the prior established closing low on reduced trading volume. The correction bottoming process (over the past few weeks) has seen a significant reduction in selling pressure in the vicinity of the Jan. 22 closing low. This is a very important aspect of any successful test."

Man, I hope you're right Birch - but I don't have your stomach for this stuff. Afraid if I go in now - I'll pee my pants.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain,

Simply hold your nose and close your eyes before you jump. You're only one step up from the bottom - not far to fall at all if you are wrong. If we follow the July 2002 scenario tomorrow could easily be another 400 point banger. The technicians have to be looking at this activity and past history. At this point there is more risk being out than being in.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain,

Simply hold your nose and close your eyes before you jump. You're only one step up from the bottom - not far to fall at all if you are wrong. If we follow the July 2002 scenario tomorrow could easily be another 400 point banger. The technicians have to be looking at this activity and past history. At this point there is more risk being out than being in.

What now there Birchtree ? - Being the perennial optimist yesterday's (Tuesday's) reversal will be significant if and only if you get a classic follow through starting on Friday and carrying through next week. Following through days that come too early in a new rally aren't that meaningful so Friday would be the first day I would consider significant and the all important carry through next week. That could be the teller.

Craig

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain,

Simply hold your nose and close your eyes before you jump. You're only one step up from the bottom - not far to fall at all if you are wrong. If we follow the July 2002 scenario tomorrow could easily be another 400 point banger. The technicians have to be looking at this activity and past history. At this point there is more risk being out than being in.

Sorry my friend - my pants would be soaked if I jumped. Will wait a little longer; but not sure how long??

 

[James48843]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sorry, but BEARS RULE.

Next stop -- 1230 on the S&P.

Lower highs, and lower lows ahead.

I think this train continues downward until somebody says "Uncle", and we're a long way from being there yet.

 

[offtrack]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm with Birch thinking we may be close at least till mid next year. The shorting boys are fierce right now and market seems to be meeting the challenge blow for blow. I think the push may come when big financials report either this coming quarter or next.

 

[kar_crazy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think this train continues downward until somebody says "Uncle", and we're a long way from being there yet.[/quote]
UNCLE, UNCLE but i am still staying put, bottom feeding

 

[BlueMax]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain,

Simply hold your nose and close your eyes before you jump. You're only one step up from the bottom - not far to fall at all if you are wrong. If we follow the July 2002 scenario tomorrow could easily be another 400 point banger. The technicians have to be looking at this activity and past history. At this point there is more risk being out than being in.

Steady,

Remember, by Birchtrees own declaration, he has a bottomless pocket,most of us do not.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"What advice have the big Wall Street firms given their large clients this year? The answer: sell the rallies." Check out the chart on the link.

http://safehaven.com/article-9676.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand advises me to remain quiet and not press my luck with this rally. So we'll see where the day goes in the next two hours. We may end up as much as we were down this morning - +234 on the Dow.

 

[camper65]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch! Feel free to use my "BRAG BOX" thread in the lounge!
I look foward to hearing from you!!!!!
Your my HERO!!

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand advises me to remain quiet and not press my luck with this rally. So we'll see where the day goes in the next two hours. We may end up as much as we were down this morning - +234 on the Dow.

Birch,
I can't help but look here and there. It sure looks like a raging BULL to me - moving his head up and down. Also the chart you supplied means way more to me than anyone's opinion. Volume is the KEY and things are falling in place.

 

[felixthecat]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Enjoyed the run up so far this week...believe we are going to finish strongly on what will be later known as big investors getting in under the radars of bear mentality. Early in...buy low and sell high.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, I got out of your lane a while ago. Why isn't the market super surging yet??

 

[camper65]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, I got out of your lane a while ago. Why isn't the market super surging yet??

It Ain't Over till The Fat Lady Sings!!!!

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It Ain't Over till The Fat Lady Sings!!!!

So true. I did miss on a big surge this week. I figured that any time I decide to make a move, the market will go against me, so I'm surprised I'm not yet missing the mega runs upwards.

Let's see how things turn out after next week's Fed meeting.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steadygain
Fortunately - we know a bounce is inevitable - pretty much guaranteed.

Don't believe me Just ask Birchtree quote"

Hey, didn't Birchtree say we closed up today? I could have swore he looked at the MCSUM and did some Fourier analysis and then examined planetary alignment and Fibonacci and the Golden Rule etc and DAMMIT THE MARKET WAS UP - I DON'T CARE WHAT ANYONE SAYS!!!!!! - IT'S ALL ONE BIG CONSPIRACY - I KNOW IT HAS TO BE DAMMIT!!!!!!!!! :nuts::laugh:

Greg

 

[love-to-bike]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

There’s been quite a bit of discussion in various member’s Allocation Account talk threads about the threat of restricting members to mail only changes if a certain number of IFTs are exceeded in a given month. Like most, I scoffed at this – believing, as many did, that this would take too long to implement. Let me tell you what arrived yesterday via certified mail….

I got a letter from the Executive Director (Gregory T. Long) of TSP stating that because I had exceeded the number of trades in February, as of March 31st 2008 I will no longer be able to post trades electronically. All further trading will be done via mail. They were so kind to enclose 3 envelopes to assist me.

So you may want to rethink your strategies – you may be getting something soon if you don’t. I live in the DC area so perhaps I got my letter earlier than others. I’ll be curious to hear what happens to others. BTW, I probably made around 6 trades in February.

I won’t be sitting idly by, calls will be made and I’ll follow up with my local reps (I’ve already sent something to my Senators and Representative last month, we’ll see what happens now.

BTW, I subscribe to several different member threads so I am cross posting this message in those as well – sorry for the duplication but I think you should be aware that the threat was not idle.

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain,

Simply hold your nose and close your eyes before you jump. You're only one step up from the bottom - not far to fall at all if you are wrong. If we follow the July 2002 scenario tomorrow could easily be another 400 point banger. The technicians have to be looking at this activity and past history. At this point there is more risk being out than being in.

Barton Biggs Expects 1,000-Point Gain in Dow Average (Update2)

By Brian Sullivan and Michael Patterson

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- The decline in U.S. stocks is ``way overdone'' and the Dow Jones Industrial Average may rally 1,000 points, investor Barton Biggs said.

``We're in a financial panic,'' Biggs said during a telephone interview with Bloomberg Television from New York. ``We're setting up for a really big rally. I don't mean three or four hundred points on the Dow, I mean 1,000 points on the Dow. I don't know if we're going to get it next week or the week after. But this thing has gotten crazy and is overdone.''

Biggs, a former Morgan Stanley strategist who now runs the $1.5 billion hedge fund Traxis Partners LLC, said stock markets from Germany to Hong Kong may bottom out soon after tumbling this year. Biggs's prediction in March 2007 that U.S. stocks were near a low preceded a 16 percent rally in the Dow average during the next four months. His forecast that the Dow would climb as much as 19 percent in 2007 overshot its actual gain by almost 13 percentage points.

``We're at a really crucial point,'' Biggs said. ``This is a time to be buying stocks around the world and not to be selling them.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3srM5UWs8NQ&refer=home

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've been out of pocket the last few days because of a burnt out back light on my Toshiba Satellite computer. I mean I can easily invest in the dark but I'm not very good at communicating when I can't see. I did miss some excellent buys the other day on LEH, MER, NCC, when they were on their lows - I called in for my broker and the call was never returned. That's alright because I've been grinding down on my taxes and it appears I made too much money last year - that really hurts.