Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"China and India account for 15% and 7% of global GDP (adjusted for purchasing power), yet the market capitalization of the MSCI global equity index open to foreign investors represents only 1.6% and 0.7%, respectively. Botton line: The excess demand associated with foreign investors' desire to have a stake in China and India will continue to put upward pressure on Chinese and Indian stock prices."

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com Explaining the Stampede Into China And India.
Also see: Chinese A-Share Markets: Increasingly Vulnerable

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"As of Thursday's close, the HSNI stood at just 7.7%. In other words, the average short-term market timing newsletters is now almost completely out of the stock market. That's bullish, from a contrarian perspective."

http://www.marketwatch.com Mark Hulbert - Air Sickness 10/26

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As of last week the bull run has now supplanted the 1982-1987 period to become the third longest bull run in the last 75 years as far as the Dow is concerned. It's good to remember that bull markets do not die of old age.

 

[kaitlinsnana]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As of last week the bull run has now supplanted the 1982-1987 period to become the third longest bull run in the last 75 years as far as the Dow is concerned. It's good to remember that bull markets do not die of old age.

You'll give me a heads-up, right?

Gail

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The oceanic pulled up $46K last week which still leaves me down $16K from the previous week - but I'm always spending time on the come back trail. I'm going to wear my PF Flyers all next week to run in front of the train and see if we can make some gains and get back to 14,200 and beyond. I'm reminded that the markets listen to no one, care about no one, respect no one and look to destroy everyone - so few realize the inherent danger in this venue. I think we are headed for multiple days that will be dramatic to the upside. Especially now that so many have already sold out of fear and panic the bull will climb the wall of worry.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Let's hope your right Birch, as Friday's gain was outstanding. I believe most of what you've said the past few weeks is becoming a reality and Friday certainly proved the bull is wanting to charge. C Fund outdid the S Fund - which really surprized me- but they all gave a very stong signal to everyone (like me) who fled to safety. I took it as a que to get back in.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A little note to give some an idea as to what some earnings can look like outside of technology for instance. A company like ABB that I own is a good example. ABB Ltd. reported an 86% jump in third-quarter net profit, partly on demand for power and automation projects, and said the global infrastructure boom will continue to boost the engineering company's earnings. The Zurich company said net rose to $738 million from $397 million a year earlier. Sales increased 26% to $7.19 billion. Results also were lifted by lower costs, higher prices and a lower tax rate. ABB said it saw continued strong demand for new infrastructure projects in China, India and the Middle East, and benefited from European investment in energy-efficient technologies. If markets stay as they are, we expect to improve our performance further. T think the third quarter earnings when smoothed will look better than most economists had anticipated and the market may continue to respond in a most bullish manner. I mean housing related and financials aren't the world - it's a much bigger place especially from the global perspective. I see where the Chinese soverign wealth funds are on the move again.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

There was a time in the spring (Jan-Feb'07) when I thought the possibility of pulling down $100K in a month was cool - but now I've become bigger and I want $100K in a week. Ah, the insanity of it all. Yes my hoofers, the easiest way to build long-term wealth is to extend one's time horizon and be a contrarian - I'm so ready to push the oceanic through the $2M mark. Hurry, bring on the Chinese capital.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

And now for potential bad news to end any thoughts of $2M. According to Russell "we're now dealing with a classic Dow Theory situation. Here's the story. The two D-J Averages, Industrials and Transports, plunged to secondary lows on August 16, Industrials at 12,845.78 and Transports at 4672.35.

From the August 16 lows, the Averages rallied with the Industrials reaching a record high of 14,163.80 on October 9. The Transports failed by a wide margin to confirm. This sets up the potential for a classic Dow Theory bear signal.

The signal for a primary bear market would be given under the following conditions. Both Averages, and I emphasize BOTH, must now decline and break their August 16 lows. The authority of the signal would be heightened if the two Averages were to break below the August 16 marks simultaneously, and an increase in volume.

A violation of one Average, unconfirmed by the other, would not constitute a bear market signal. In fact, a violation of one Average, while the other Average stubbornly refuses to follow, could represent a bullish non-confirmation....If a primary bear market is signaled, it would be best to be out of all common stocks." This bull will be on the look out for sure.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/russell102207.html

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Let's just hope the increase in exports with a weaker dollar offset the decrease in domestic transportation/delivery.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A company like ABB that I own is a good example. Are you a major share holder of this company? It sounds like you're total investment strategy (including oceanonic) is outstanding. And to make 100K a week is beyond my scope of imagination at present. I REALLY HOPE YOU HAVE ENOUGH GOOD HEALTHY YEARS TO ENJOY ALL THIS MONEY. On a much smaller scale I remember thinking $300 was an acceptable gain in my first year of TSP IFTs. I have to remind of myself of this occasionally and be grateful when I only get $500. Fortunately for me - my greed has not reached a point where I'm not thankful for even the smaller gains (like the occasional G Fund penny).


If a primary bear market is signaled, it would be best to be out of all common stocks." This bull will be on the look out for sure. I'm also thrilled to see this side of you. For awhile I started thinking your determination to stay in C Fund regardless of what the Markets did was kind of crazy - but was hoping you'd prove everyone right. Being fairly new to the MB - I began to wonder if you'd recognize a reality check and move to safety.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Is Birchtree never, no more?

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

No, he can come back tomorrow night if he wants. He just had to stay after class for 2 days.

 

[charmed855]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

No, he can come back tomorrow night if he wants. He just had to stay after class for 2 days.

Birchy got a time out!

I hope we don't miss any market timing advice between now and tomorrow night. I'd hate to miss out on that 50-year cyclical mega-bull trend reversal! :laugh:

 

[NORTH2AK]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree, 12% - Get back in the game, I need your help! I'll admit it, I'm a follower! :worried: How did you get kicked off? Did you out perform one of the Moderators:cheesy:

 

[Removed1]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree, 12% - Get back in the game, I need your help! I'll admit it, I'm a follower! :worried: How did you get kicked off? Did you out perform one of the Moderators:cheesy:

I don't think 12% got kicked out,he is very good to board members,the best thing happened to this web site,contributed for free, invaluable sources,logic and strategy,helping when he could with explanation.He 's just fed up with the crap.

 

[wv-girl]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I don't think 12% got kicked out,he is very good to board members,the best thing happened to this web site,contributed for free, invaluable sources,logic and strategy,helping when he could with explanation.He 's just fed up with the crap.

What crap? From reading the boards, he started with Birchtree about starting a sentence with AND. It was Budnipper who challenged him. But who cares about proper grammer as long as you get your point across? I read everyones posts and I do hope this misunderstanding can be worked out. We need all the help we can get to try to beat these markets. Isn't that what we are here for? I guess boyz will be boyz.

Debbie

 

[Removed1]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What crap? From reading the boards, he started with Birchtree about starting a sentence with AND. It was Budnipper who challenged him. But who cares about proper grammer as long as you get your point across? I read everyones posts and I do hope this misunderstanding can be worked out. We need all the help we can get to try to beat these markets. Isn't that what we are here for? I guess boyz will be boyz.

Debbie

I don't think Birch and 12 % took it seriously with grammar,typo things ..because I made a lot of typo mistakes no one care, just chatting ..actually they like each other,just playing around,budnipper likes 12% too,
I think something more serious than that .

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I don't think Birch and 12 % took it seriously with grammar,typo things ..because I made a lot of typo mistakes no one care, just chatting ..actually they like each other,just playing around,budnipper likes 12% too,
I think something more serious than that .

I bet there's a Private Message log that's an interesting read.......

 

[Tempest]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The 'tree will be back.
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