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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Mr recognizer
Banned
- Reaction score
- 0
Re: Birchtree's account talk
how true your words are...it takes all kinds...excellent post by you and its exactly what we have here....we are really lucky..
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm generally not very short-term oriented so the only thing I'm looking forward to is buying my next DCA into the C fund under $17.00. It feels good to have some success occasionally. I think Ronnie Garvin (The Hands of Stone) will be after me today and my poor ribs still hurt from the other day. But when you play this game you gotta take some hits. I'm sitting on a new buy list that I may activate if the pain gets worse.
I'm generally not very short-term oriented so the only thing I'm looking forward to is buying my next DCA into the C fund under $17.00. It feels good to have some success occasionally. I think Ronnie Garvin (The Hands of Stone) will be after me today and my poor ribs still hurt from the other day. But when you play this game you gotta take some hits. I'm sitting on a new buy list that I may activate if the pain gets worse.
Geaux4it
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 5
Re: Birchtree's account talk
After the hits dem gators took they might be healed in time for Spurrier.
After the hits dem gators took they might be healed in time for Spurrier.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
TWIN 66.87 +5.53 will help but I'm watching to see what the NYSE A/D data will look like - currently there is a lack of confirmation of the new price highs from the August lows. This could be problematic for the future - no panic yet from me. The NYSE TRIN on Friday was 3.54. Anything over 2.00 suggests a bottom of short term duration and anything over 3.00 is a pretty significant bottom. We are simply building a base and perhaps setting the 9 month low early which bodes well for gains in the next 6 months. If we do indeed retest the August lows the C fund will become golden at $15.75 and give me many more shares to tuck away. We seem to be having a rebound in progress - I can't wait until Spring. Snort.
TWIN 66.87 +5.53 will help but I'm watching to see what the NYSE A/D data will look like - currently there is a lack of confirmation of the new price highs from the August lows. This could be problematic for the future - no panic yet from me. The NYSE TRIN on Friday was 3.54. Anything over 2.00 suggests a bottom of short term duration and anything over 3.00 is a pretty significant bottom. We are simply building a base and perhaps setting the 9 month low early which bodes well for gains in the next 6 months. If we do indeed retest the August lows the C fund will become golden at $15.75 and give me many more shares to tuck away. We seem to be having a rebound in progress - I can't wait until Spring. Snort.
FogSailing
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 61
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Go Sooners!!!!
I love my boys from Norman...Must have something to do with me being from those parts...
FS
Go Sooners!!!!
I love my boys from Norman...Must have something to do with me being from those parts...
FS
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Was just wondering, Birch, if this morning when the DOW was down 198 points, if you ever considered putting on the lifevest and tossing some of the cargo overboard to lighten the load a little? The water was pretty choppy there for a while. Maybe we'll have calmer seas ahead for awhile.
Was just wondering, Birch, if this morning when the DOW was down 198 points, if you ever considered putting on the lifevest and tossing some of the cargo overboard to lighten the load a little? The water was pretty choppy there for a while. Maybe we'll have calmer seas ahead for awhile.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Nah, I've learned to never cut and run - get out only when everyone else wants in at any price. The oceanic made $26K yesterday and I was prepared to give it all back today. I've got some spill left and I'm chewing on the bit to spend it - but I've essentially made my bed back in August so I'm trying to be patient and it is a sacrifice to remain docile. If we do retest Dow 12,500 I will definitely sell a beauty and buy as many wall flowers as possible - but we're not going any lower. I'm still holding out for a 2,000 point run into end of year. Even today was a 400 point move from down 200 to up essentially unchanged. A Dow of 15,900 may come very easy once the 9 month low bottoms and all the soverign wealth funds start to invest their money in our market, 401K dividend reinvestments kick in and the Fed gives us another shock and awe cut of .50 basis points to include the discount rate. It's time for the bulls to step up like today and take this market to new all-time highs. A sound stock market is good for the economy and some equity guys will be buying real estate on the bargain. Snort.
Nah, I've learned to never cut and run - get out only when everyone else wants in at any price. The oceanic made $26K yesterday and I was prepared to give it all back today. I've got some spill left and I'm chewing on the bit to spend it - but I've essentially made my bed back in August so I'm trying to be patient and it is a sacrifice to remain docile. If we do retest Dow 12,500 I will definitely sell a beauty and buy as many wall flowers as possible - but we're not going any lower. I'm still holding out for a 2,000 point run into end of year. Even today was a 400 point move from down 200 to up essentially unchanged. A Dow of 15,900 may come very easy once the 9 month low bottoms and all the soverign wealth funds start to invest their money in our market, 401K dividend reinvestments kick in and the Fed gives us another shock and awe cut of .50 basis points to include the discount rate. It's time for the bulls to step up like today and take this market to new all-time highs. A sound stock market is good for the economy and some equity guys will be buying real estate on the bargain. Snort.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
If you believe in the concept of the secular bear market this is a good link. I believe we are in a back to back secular bull market. The cyclical bear was completed in March'03. I'm actually a believer in the mega trend secular bull market and that is what I mean when I say be right and sit tight. Being right on the trend is half the battle - I've been right since the first bottom of July'02 and I've bought every correction all the way up. Snort.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville102307.html
If you believe in the concept of the secular bear market this is a good link. I believe we are in a back to back secular bull market. The cyclical bear was completed in March'03. I'm actually a believer in the mega trend secular bull market and that is what I mean when I say be right and sit tight. Being right on the trend is half the battle - I've been right since the first bottom of July'02 and I've bought every correction all the way up. Snort.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville102307.html
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"As Mark Dodson of Hays Advisory recently observed, "Right now, the surge in exports as a result of the weak dollar is what is saving the U.S. economy from tipping into recession". Dr. Joseph Davis, an economist with the Vanguard Group, has observed that dollar weakness "will improve the trade imbalance and benefit the U.S. and global economies.""
http://www.financialsense.com/edirorials/droke/2007/1023.html
"As Mark Dodson of Hays Advisory recently observed, "Right now, the surge in exports as a result of the weak dollar is what is saving the U.S. economy from tipping into recession". Dr. Joseph Davis, an economist with the Vanguard Group, has observed that dollar weakness "will improve the trade imbalance and benefit the U.S. and global economies.""
http://www.financialsense.com/edirorials/droke/2007/1023.html
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Wow! I am so glad I read your page before going to bed. Thank you my friend - that makes a lot of sense - THAT I CAN BELIEVE and BOY DID I NEED TO HEAR IT. You're good, I got to admit - and I would have given you even more credit if I read your stuff before I wrote mine.
Wow! I am so glad I read your page before going to bed. Thank you my friend - that makes a lot of sense - THAT I CAN BELIEVE and BOY DID I NEED TO HEAR IT. You're good, I got to admit - and I would have given you even more credit if I read your stuff before I wrote mine.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Can a crash be predicted using wave analysis? Trends and turns can be predicted with some reliability, but it is rarely possible to comment on whether a wave will unfold slowly or rapidly. Ceretain specific junctures in corrective waves are prone to crashes, such as in 1937 and 1962. Those that came off a top, such as in 1929 and 1987, seem to occur after extended fifth waves, in other words, when the final move up in a bull market is especially long. But timing that juncture can be elusive to say the least". The current Primary wave 4 will occur in the decade of 2010-2020, the Primary 5 up after that. We are safe for awhile. It would appear that this current uptrend in stocks has enough staying power to continue well into the spring of 2008 and this continues to reinforce how important it is when both the 9 month and 4 year cycles are moving concurrently in the same direction. I think we are currently having an early nesting of the 9 month as I speak. This bodes well for the next several months.
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/ewave/2007/1024.html
"Can a crash be predicted using wave analysis? Trends and turns can be predicted with some reliability, but it is rarely possible to comment on whether a wave will unfold slowly or rapidly. Ceretain specific junctures in corrective waves are prone to crashes, such as in 1937 and 1962. Those that came off a top, such as in 1929 and 1987, seem to occur after extended fifth waves, in other words, when the final move up in a bull market is especially long. But timing that juncture can be elusive to say the least". The current Primary wave 4 will occur in the decade of 2010-2020, the Primary 5 up after that. We are safe for awhile. It would appear that this current uptrend in stocks has enough staying power to continue well into the spring of 2008 and this continues to reinforce how important it is when both the 9 month and 4 year cycles are moving concurrently in the same direction. I think we are currently having an early nesting of the 9 month as I speak. This bodes well for the next several months.
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/ewave/2007/1024.html
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Chart #4 is revealing to you that charts #1 & 2 are dealing with the US exports to China, mainland, so if and when you know that US exports are going to surge tremendously in the years ahead...."
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/chevrette/2007/1025.html
"Chart #4 is revealing to you that charts #1 & 2 are dealing with the US exports to China, mainland, so if and when you know that US exports are going to surge tremendously in the years ahead...."
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/chevrette/2007/1025.html
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch - I'm going 100% C Fund. If the American Markets gain strength I am behind them all the way.
Birch - I'm going 100% C Fund. If the American Markets gain strength I am behind them all the way.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I've been a little nervous regarding the NYSE breadth MCSUM and the A/D line. The problem in working with the A/D line is that there is no history to compare after it broke the 1959 resistance line. Recently the A/D line has not been able to move above the declining tops line. This means that even though some indexes are rallying there is broad participation lacking. This may bring into question of the longevity of a continuing rally. The NYSE composite had a previous all-time high at 10,301.49. Today it is rallying strongly up +100 to 10,130.21 so I'm starting to relax some. If we can stay positive on the close the NYSE breadth MCO will pull up the MCSUM to the zero line and the bulls will be back in control. Waiting on confirmation of the new price highs with the cumulative NYSE A/D line from the August lows.
I've been a little nervous regarding the NYSE breadth MCSUM and the A/D line. The problem in working with the A/D line is that there is no history to compare after it broke the 1959 resistance line. Recently the A/D line has not been able to move above the declining tops line. This means that even though some indexes are rallying there is broad participation lacking. This may bring into question of the longevity of a continuing rally. The NYSE composite had a previous all-time high at 10,301.49. Today it is rallying strongly up +100 to 10,130.21 so I'm starting to relax some. If we can stay positive on the close the NYSE breadth MCO will pull up the MCSUM to the zero line and the bulls will be back in control. Waiting on confirmation of the new price highs with the cumulative NYSE A/D line from the August lows.
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 737
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Alright Birch- I'll bite.
If what those charts say is true....then
What stocks are U.S. exporters which can take advantage of this?
Since much of our manufacturing is now moving overseas, what is left? What are we exporting that shows up in those charts?
Alright Birch- I'll bite.
If what those charts say is true....then
What stocks are U.S. exporters which can take advantage of this?
Since much of our manufacturing is now moving overseas, what is left? What are we exporting that shows up in those charts?
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