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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Now that's not pretty - $24.7K on the tugboat to the downside this week and the oceanic should be twice that value. Not really a loss, only a temporary devaluation. Folks, the Ducati and I have been riding these peaks and valleys for years and it's nothing to get depressed about or excited about even though I do feel best after I've been hit by the train - refreshed so to speak. I may be forced to spend some of my spill next week and I'm looking forward to my next C fund DCA at these sweet prices - I'm slowly running out of available DCA time - soon I'll be pistol shooting with the timers.
Now that's not pretty - $24.7K on the tugboat to the downside this week and the oceanic should be twice that value. Not really a loss, only a temporary devaluation. Folks, the Ducati and I have been riding these peaks and valleys for years and it's nothing to get depressed about or excited about even though I do feel best after I've been hit by the train - refreshed so to speak. I may be forced to spend some of my spill next week and I'm looking forward to my next C fund DCA at these sweet prices - I'm slowly running out of available DCA time - soon I'll be pistol shooting with the timers.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Technically, this rate cutting cycle is beginning as the equity markets are once again trying to roll over into a 4-year cycle low that is beyond overdue, and as a result, the stock market risk remains very high." Tim will not give up on the fact that the 4 year low has come and gone. The next low is October 2010.
http://www.financialsense.com/market/wrapup.htm Tim Wood Friday 10/19
"Technically, this rate cutting cycle is beginning as the equity markets are once again trying to roll over into a 4-year cycle low that is beyond overdue, and as a result, the stock market risk remains very high." Tim will not give up on the fact that the 4 year low has come and gone. The next low is October 2010.
http://www.financialsense.com/market/wrapup.htm Tim Wood Friday 10/19
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Well hit me with your best shot, fire away. The poor oceanic got a buzz cut to the tune of $48K which puts me down in valuation of $62K for the week. Certainly not pleasant but that's what happens during a blindside - some just get steam rolled. But I do have the holy grail so I can give back a little more for the cause if necessary. We've now had our short term pullback and are again positioned to move significantly higher. Here's my thought: I've been reading for two years that the market has not kept pace with the degree in gains from earnings - now the question is will the market exceed with higher gains while earnings rest for a quarter or two? Seems reasonable to me. Nearly a third of the S&P 500 components will report their quarterly results next week. So far, of the 131 companies that have already reported, more than 25% have missed Wall Street's profit targets. That's more than twice the level of earnings misses at the same time last year. I think the market will look into the future and move aggressively forward leaving the bears scratching their heads and their furry little butts. Snort.
Well hit me with your best shot, fire away. The poor oceanic got a buzz cut to the tune of $48K which puts me down in valuation of $62K for the week. Certainly not pleasant but that's what happens during a blindside - some just get steam rolled. But I do have the holy grail so I can give back a little more for the cause if necessary. We've now had our short term pullback and are again positioned to move significantly higher. Here's my thought: I've been reading for two years that the market has not kept pace with the degree in gains from earnings - now the question is will the market exceed with higher gains while earnings rest for a quarter or two? Seems reasonable to me. Nearly a third of the S&P 500 components will report their quarterly results next week. So far, of the 131 companies that have already reported, more than 25% have missed Wall Street's profit targets. That's more than twice the level of earnings misses at the same time last year. I think the market will look into the future and move aggressively forward leaving the bears scratching their heads and their furry little butts. Snort.
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
And I was feeling sorry for myself:worried: for losing $8K this past week! Your expressions of hope for a better day makes me feel like it's not a big deal, and that very soon thanks to Ebb I will make it up!
Thanks for all your input, I am learning more and more every day! G L and Happy Tradings!
CorMaGa34
Birch,
And I was feeling sorry for myself:worried: for losing $8K this past week! Your expressions of hope for a better day makes me feel like it's not a big deal, and that very soon thanks to Ebb I will make it up!
Thanks for all your input, I am learning more and more every day! G L and Happy Tradings!
CorMaGa34
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I think I must have totally missed the point of gloom anbd doom relating to Caterpillar. I mean so what if Caterpillar's North American revenue fell 11% to $4.99 billion and they forecast a weaker fourth quarter - are they all of a sudden capable future readers - since when? Caterpillar's Europe/Africa/Middle East business posted the biggest increase in revenue among geographic regions, up 36% to $3.65 billion. Caterpillar's revenue in Asia/Pacific gained 30% to $1.67 billion, while Latin America revenue rose 20% to $1.14 billion.
http://online.wsj.com/public/us
From TWSJ by Bob Davis 10/20 G-7 Cites New Yaun Concern And Weighs Rules for Funds.
"While the G-7 could agree to critize China, the group couldn't agree about the proper alignment of currencies between the dollar and euro, which weren't mentioned in the communique. Exporters in Europe have argued that the dollar has weakened too much, while the U.S. hasn't done anything to prop up the currency - implicitly giving approval to a slow, steady decline.
Soverign wealth funds are now operated by several countries and many other countries with bulging reserves are considering starting new investment funds. The investment vehicles are funded by foreign-exchange assets and generally make investments outside their home countries in equities, debt, real estate and other assets. The G-7 said its countries can benefit from the additional investment from the funds, but that it "saw merit in identifying best practices" in areas such as risk management, transparency and accountability. The IMF also is looking into designing codes of conduct for the funds.
In a sign of just how popular and lucrative these funds have become, China's finance minister has said that Beijing needed just $800 billion in reserves for macroeconomic stability and the rest could be deployed in other instruments. China currently has reserves of more than $1.2 trillion." I'm gushing again. Snort.
I think I must have totally missed the point of gloom anbd doom relating to Caterpillar. I mean so what if Caterpillar's North American revenue fell 11% to $4.99 billion and they forecast a weaker fourth quarter - are they all of a sudden capable future readers - since when? Caterpillar's Europe/Africa/Middle East business posted the biggest increase in revenue among geographic regions, up 36% to $3.65 billion. Caterpillar's revenue in Asia/Pacific gained 30% to $1.67 billion, while Latin America revenue rose 20% to $1.14 billion.
http://online.wsj.com/public/us
From TWSJ by Bob Davis 10/20 G-7 Cites New Yaun Concern And Weighs Rules for Funds.
"While the G-7 could agree to critize China, the group couldn't agree about the proper alignment of currencies between the dollar and euro, which weren't mentioned in the communique. Exporters in Europe have argued that the dollar has weakened too much, while the U.S. hasn't done anything to prop up the currency - implicitly giving approval to a slow, steady decline.
Soverign wealth funds are now operated by several countries and many other countries with bulging reserves are considering starting new investment funds. The investment vehicles are funded by foreign-exchange assets and generally make investments outside their home countries in equities, debt, real estate and other assets. The G-7 said its countries can benefit from the additional investment from the funds, but that it "saw merit in identifying best practices" in areas such as risk management, transparency and accountability. The IMF also is looking into designing codes of conduct for the funds.
In a sign of just how popular and lucrative these funds have become, China's finance minister has said that Beijing needed just $800 billion in reserves for macroeconomic stability and the rest could be deployed in other instruments. China currently has reserves of more than $1.2 trillion." I'm gushing again. Snort.
Last edited by a moderator:
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The latest FMS (fund manager survey) from Merrill "shows the highest asset allocation to Emerging Markets since April 2004, and that 51% of investors believe EM has the best profit outlook, an all-time high. These are red flags: EM equities tumbled 21% in April-May 2004. Contrarians should note that the shift to EM has been funded out of Japanese equities.
One measure of liquidity in equity markets is turnover. The median average daily turnover of stocks globally has risen by 50% in the past 12 months (Japan +15%, Europe +59%, GEM +105%, Asia Pac +118%) and has doubled in two years. The growth in turnover has mapped the profit cycle over 20 years, implying that recent strong turnover growth is consistent with an accelerating cycle. Turnover is near all-time highs in some regions". It's good to find some positive light in all our recent profit taking. The Dow is still only 676 points off its record.
The latest FMS (fund manager survey) from Merrill "shows the highest asset allocation to Emerging Markets since April 2004, and that 51% of investors believe EM has the best profit outlook, an all-time high. These are red flags: EM equities tumbled 21% in April-May 2004. Contrarians should note that the shift to EM has been funded out of Japanese equities.
One measure of liquidity in equity markets is turnover. The median average daily turnover of stocks globally has risen by 50% in the past 12 months (Japan +15%, Europe +59%, GEM +105%, Asia Pac +118%) and has doubled in two years. The growth in turnover has mapped the profit cycle over 20 years, implying that recent strong turnover growth is consistent with an accelerating cycle. Turnover is near all-time highs in some regions". It's good to find some positive light in all our recent profit taking. The Dow is still only 676 points off its record.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Thompson Financial and Reuters Estimates both say that analysts expect earnings growth of mpore than 10% both for the quarter just started, and for the first quarter of next year. The credit squeeze, by extension, will cause merely a one-off blip for earnings in the third quarter. Between July 19 and late September, roughly half the trading sessions featured swings in the S&P 500 of at least 1% - Friday was better than 2%. By contrast, in all of 2005 and 2006 combined there were less than 60 trading days in which prices moved more than 1%. 2008 could end up a perfect year to do some serious turkey shooting - $20,000/.50 point is the action to get my attention.
Thompson Financial and Reuters Estimates both say that analysts expect earnings growth of mpore than 10% both for the quarter just started, and for the first quarter of next year. The credit squeeze, by extension, will cause merely a one-off blip for earnings in the third quarter. Between July 19 and late September, roughly half the trading sessions featured swings in the S&P 500 of at least 1% - Friday was better than 2%. By contrast, in all of 2005 and 2006 combined there were less than 60 trading days in which prices moved more than 1%. 2008 could end up a perfect year to do some serious turkey shooting - $20,000/.50 point is the action to get my attention.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I noticed the Nikkie is down 541 or so - if I had a hammer I'd take another $0.55 out of the I fund for fun. I'm a solid buyer at $24.00. And while we're at it peel off another $0.55 from the S fund too. Then we'll be right to go for the next rebound - but only after everyone cuts and runs. Rider on the storm. I'm a DCA buyer this week on the C fund so take me down the well and try to drown me. Show me more pain.
I noticed the Nikkie is down 541 or so - if I had a hammer I'd take another $0.55 out of the I fund for fun. I'm a solid buyer at $24.00. And while we're at it peel off another $0.55 from the S fund too. Then we'll be right to go for the next rebound - but only after everyone cuts and runs. Rider on the storm. I'm a DCA buyer this week on the C fund so take me down the well and try to drown me. Show me more pain.
- Reaction score
- 1,977
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Even though you are hand typing these articles in (an assumption from the typos) you still need to give us a link to keep it legal. Even if it's just to their home page.
http://online.wsj.com/public/us
Otherwise we'll have to start deleting these informative posts.
Thanks for understanding.
Birch -
Even though you are hand typing these articles in (an assumption from the typos) you still need to give us a link to keep it legal. Even if it's just to their home page.
http://online.wsj.com/public/us
Otherwise we'll have to start deleting these informative posts.
Thanks for understanding.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Thanks Tom.
So Trader Fred, Rev Shark, and Ebb each have their own premium members chat boards. Do I wonder what I'll miss - waltzing with Matilda is all. There is plenty of room for everyone and plenty of information to go around. That's what makes a market. We now even have a neural network available. GL.
Thanks Tom.
So Trader Fred, Rev Shark, and Ebb each have their own premium members chat boards. Do I wonder what I'll miss - waltzing with Matilda is all. There is plenty of room for everyone and plenty of information to go around. That's what makes a market. We now even have a neural network available. GL.
Mr recognizer
Banned
- Reaction score
- 0
Re: Birchtree's account talk
who needs the prem chat boards anyways... all the guru's trailing all the major indexes since the new tracker was put in operation anyway...besides we have ek's neural system to fall back on if we want to apply some trader/timing process lnto our investing...myself.. i'll just stick with the L2040 FUND and let it ride as i m too lazy to keep track of all thsi different investor stuff...
Mr recognizer
Banned
- Reaction score
- 0
Re: Birchtree's account talk
thinking of going 100% neural ek...whata you think?
thinking of going 100% neural ek...whata you think?
- Reaction score
- 1,977
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch, we have probably sounded like total idiots over the past few weeks and our upbeat stance throughout last week would have convinced more than a few - that in fact we are. My stand on this is as great as yours. I very much expect double digit gains by the end of the year. It is possible that C (or S) will gain even more than I - but in the end all of us should come out winners.
Birch, we have probably sounded like total idiots over the past few weeks and our upbeat stance throughout last week would have convinced more than a few - that in fact we are. My stand on this is as great as yours. I very much expect double digit gains by the end of the year. It is possible that C (or S) will gain even more than I - but in the end all of us should come out winners.
FogSailing
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 61
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Mr Recognizer:
One of the beauties of this forum is that you get to read a variety of viewpoints and the opportunity to choose your own path. Some folks are successful perma bulls like Birchtree , some are a mixture of traders and holders (watch Griffin), some are pure traders (watch 12%). Some follow the Ebb and Trader Fred Systems (premier), or the Sentiment Survey (free) systems. IMHO...follow the TSP Tracker, watch the market charts and indices, be up on the economic briefings calendar, and listen to the savvy investors on this site, or elsewhere. You'll make the choice that's right for you.
Good Luck in your investments..
FS
Mr Recognizer:
One of the beauties of this forum is that you get to read a variety of viewpoints and the opportunity to choose your own path. Some folks are successful perma bulls like Birchtree , some are a mixture of traders and holders (watch Griffin), some are pure traders (watch 12%). Some follow the Ebb and Trader Fred Systems (premier), or the Sentiment Survey (free) systems. IMHO...follow the TSP Tracker, watch the market charts and indices, be up on the economic briefings calendar, and listen to the savvy investors on this site, or elsewhere. You'll make the choice that's right for you.
Good Luck in your investments..
FS
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
From TWSJ by Amy Merrick: More Debtors Use Bankruptcy To Keep Homes 10/23
http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us
"Last month, as the nation's housing slump continued, consumer bankruptcy filings increased almost 23% from a year earlier - representing nearly 69,000 people - according to the American Bankruptcy Institute, a nonprofit research group whose members include bankruptcy attorneys, judges and lenders. Overall, consumer bankruptcy filings were up 44.76% during the first nine months of this year.
In recent months an increasing number of homeowners have filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 13, which staves off foreclosure proceedings while the homeowner works out a plan to pay off mortgage debt and other obligations over time - usually three to five years. To qualify, debtors must have a regular income and must stay current on their new bills. About four in 10 filers today are filing under chapter 13 - up from three in 10 two years ago. The 2005 change in bankruptcy laws was designed in part to shift more filers to Chapter 13, which forgives less debt than Chapter 7. I think if people knew they had the Chapter 13 option, a lot of people would save their house."
From TWSJ by Amy Merrick: More Debtors Use Bankruptcy To Keep Homes 10/23
http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us
"Last month, as the nation's housing slump continued, consumer bankruptcy filings increased almost 23% from a year earlier - representing nearly 69,000 people - according to the American Bankruptcy Institute, a nonprofit research group whose members include bankruptcy attorneys, judges and lenders. Overall, consumer bankruptcy filings were up 44.76% during the first nine months of this year.
In recent months an increasing number of homeowners have filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 13, which staves off foreclosure proceedings while the homeowner works out a plan to pay off mortgage debt and other obligations over time - usually three to five years. To qualify, debtors must have a regular income and must stay current on their new bills. About four in 10 filers today are filing under chapter 13 - up from three in 10 two years ago. The 2005 change in bankruptcy laws was designed in part to shift more filers to Chapter 13, which forgives less debt than Chapter 7. I think if people knew they had the Chapter 13 option, a lot of people would save their house."
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