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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"The NYSE McClellan oscillator, which is the short-term A/D indicator for that index, has remained positive for about 5 weeks. (Some of you have read about my mention of a double pump). This has caused the Summation Index, its longer-term counterpart which had gone into deeply negative territory during the correction, to move all the way back to neutral. The uptrend of the summation index matches the uptrend of the NYSE Composite Index and shows it to be in the early stages of an intermediate move." I'm including this link to encourage those that don't think this stuff is real - to further investigate. That includes you Griffin.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-8475.htm
"The NYSE McClellan oscillator, which is the short-term A/D indicator for that index, has remained positive for about 5 weeks. (Some of you have read about my mention of a double pump). This has caused the Summation Index, its longer-term counterpart which had gone into deeply negative territory during the correction, to move all the way back to neutral. The uptrend of the summation index matches the uptrend of the NYSE Composite Index and shows it to be in the early stages of an intermediate move." I'm including this link to encourage those that don't think this stuff is real - to further investigate. That includes you Griffin.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-8475.htm
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"With Bem Bernanke & Co. serving up a surprise 50-basis point cut in the Fed Funds rate last week, fueling big gains in the equity markets, we again saw the merits of adhering to our long-held strategy of buying and patiently holding broadly diversified portfolio of undrevalued stocks through thick and thin. We never know for certain what will happen in the short run, but equities have historically rewarded the long term oriented investor."
http://www.marketwatch.com Peter Brimlow Prudent Speculator sticks with stocks 9/25
"With Bem Bernanke & Co. serving up a surprise 50-basis point cut in the Fed Funds rate last week, fueling big gains in the equity markets, we again saw the merits of adhering to our long-held strategy of buying and patiently holding broadly diversified portfolio of undrevalued stocks through thick and thin. We never know for certain what will happen in the short run, but equities have historically rewarded the long term oriented investor."
http://www.marketwatch.com Peter Brimlow Prudent Speculator sticks with stocks 9/25
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
From TWSJ by Marcus Walker "European Engine Might Stall" 9/26
"Global market turmoil threatens economy: U.S. exports at risk. New signals indicate that turmoil in global financial markets could hit the recovery in Europe's economy, one of the bright spots in the industrialized world.
Recent surveys show that businesses in the 13-nation euro currency area are becoming sharply more downbeat. Worsening data are prompting economists to cut their growth forecasts for the region. A marked slowdown in the $11 trillion euro-zone economy would also harm the outlook for companies in Asia and the U.S., which have found unexpected sales growth and profits in Europe in the past year that have helped to offset weaker growth in the U.S.
Economists say the fading optimism reflected in business surveys is partly due to worries over the crunch in the global credit markets, as well as higher interest rates, slower U.S. growth, a soaring euro exchange rate and high oil prices.
Germany's leading business-climate index, compiled by the Munich based Ifo Institute from a survey of around 7,000 companies, fell more sharply than expected in September, to 104.2 from 105.8 in August. The score shows an expanding economy, but is now well below April's peak of 108.6. The Ifo finding echoes Friday's unexpected plunge in a euro-area purchasing managers' index of business conditions, which fell to a two year low.
What should happen at this juncture is that consumption becomes a more important driver of growth. Instead, the Ifo survey found confidence among German retailers nose-diving. Goldman Sachs last week cut its euro-zone growth forecast for 2008 to 2% from 2.3%.
A European slowdown could affect the U.S., where companies' exports have been lifted by rising European demand as well as the weak dollar. Also, European subsidiaries have provided U.S. companies with fast growing earnings, reaching over $120 billion last year, at a time when domestic earnings have been flat. Europe's large economy makes it a more important market for many companies than China or India, despite their faster growth rates.
More than half of the U.S. companies' overseas earnings now come from Europe. Global earnings have propped up the stock market this year." Does it mean anything - I'm staying on my hoofs just in case this game is up for awhile.
From TWSJ by Marcus Walker "European Engine Might Stall" 9/26
"Global market turmoil threatens economy: U.S. exports at risk. New signals indicate that turmoil in global financial markets could hit the recovery in Europe's economy, one of the bright spots in the industrialized world.
Recent surveys show that businesses in the 13-nation euro currency area are becoming sharply more downbeat. Worsening data are prompting economists to cut their growth forecasts for the region. A marked slowdown in the $11 trillion euro-zone economy would also harm the outlook for companies in Asia and the U.S., which have found unexpected sales growth and profits in Europe in the past year that have helped to offset weaker growth in the U.S.
Economists say the fading optimism reflected in business surveys is partly due to worries over the crunch in the global credit markets, as well as higher interest rates, slower U.S. growth, a soaring euro exchange rate and high oil prices.
Germany's leading business-climate index, compiled by the Munich based Ifo Institute from a survey of around 7,000 companies, fell more sharply than expected in September, to 104.2 from 105.8 in August. The score shows an expanding economy, but is now well below April's peak of 108.6. The Ifo finding echoes Friday's unexpected plunge in a euro-area purchasing managers' index of business conditions, which fell to a two year low.
What should happen at this juncture is that consumption becomes a more important driver of growth. Instead, the Ifo survey found confidence among German retailers nose-diving. Goldman Sachs last week cut its euro-zone growth forecast for 2008 to 2% from 2.3%.
A European slowdown could affect the U.S., where companies' exports have been lifted by rising European demand as well as the weak dollar. Also, European subsidiaries have provided U.S. companies with fast growing earnings, reaching over $120 billion last year, at a time when domestic earnings have been flat. Europe's large economy makes it a more important market for many companies than China or India, despite their faster growth rates.
More than half of the U.S. companies' overseas earnings now come from Europe. Global earnings have propped up the stock market this year." Does it mean anything - I'm staying on my hoofs just in case this game is up for awhile.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Energy Plays: The Spark Is Still There. The longer term outlook for energy-related investments remains positive, in particular, energy service stocks are set to extend their bull run. Valuations are appealing: Forward earnings of energy service stocks continue to surge versus the S&P 500, yet earnings multiples are similar to the overall market. Bottom line: Global energy service stocks should continue to outperform." Can you find those hidden gems in my portfolio - I think I'm slightly overweighted in this sector. Ferdinand had a good day today knocking down targets. Will we score a new all-time high tomorrow - hopefully only come close - save the best for Friday and make it convincing so that 14,000.41 becomes support. Snort.
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com
"Energy Plays: The Spark Is Still There. The longer term outlook for energy-related investments remains positive, in particular, energy service stocks are set to extend their bull run. Valuations are appealing: Forward earnings of energy service stocks continue to surge versus the S&P 500, yet earnings multiples are similar to the overall market. Bottom line: Global energy service stocks should continue to outperform." Can you find those hidden gems in my portfolio - I think I'm slightly overweighted in this sector. Ferdinand had a good day today knocking down targets. Will we score a new all-time high tomorrow - hopefully only come close - save the best for Friday and make it convincing so that 14,000.41 becomes support. Snort.
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"What we are seeing now is similar to 1998....The market appears, at this point, to be taking a breather - and if this is the case, then you don't want to miss the biggest "woosh up" since 1999 and 2000 in stocks. This means that real growth - stocks that are growth oriented and have secular growth - are going to be the new leaders of this three to four year final leg of the global expansion. All of our research says that we are about to head into the next great stock mania, a humongous final leg of the 2003-2012 bull market that will make the old stock bubble look frail. That's because the entire world is participating this time - not just the U.S.
All of the investors who have been sitting on their hands waiting for the world to collapse will be disappointed, because it ain't happening. And the folks sitting on their cash are going to rush back into the market. We have not seen the individual investor at all in the bull market since 2003, but we'll see them jump back in at some point during the next 12 months. (Hurry Tom) You're going to see real mergers come in, and it will be for stock, not cash.
http://www.articles.moneycentral.ms...gylab/rnd16/p2/changewavejournal20070921.aspx
"What we are seeing now is similar to 1998....The market appears, at this point, to be taking a breather - and if this is the case, then you don't want to miss the biggest "woosh up" since 1999 and 2000 in stocks. This means that real growth - stocks that are growth oriented and have secular growth - are going to be the new leaders of this three to four year final leg of the global expansion. All of our research says that we are about to head into the next great stock mania, a humongous final leg of the 2003-2012 bull market that will make the old stock bubble look frail. That's because the entire world is participating this time - not just the U.S.
All of the investors who have been sitting on their hands waiting for the world to collapse will be disappointed, because it ain't happening. And the folks sitting on their cash are going to rush back into the market. We have not seen the individual investor at all in the bull market since 2003, but we'll see them jump back in at some point during the next 12 months. (Hurry Tom) You're going to see real mergers come in, and it will be for stock, not cash.
http://www.articles.moneycentral.ms...gylab/rnd16/p2/changewavejournal20070921.aspx
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"The most recent data that S&P has compiled covers the quarter that ended June 30. In that quarter, according to S&P, actual buybacks for the 500 companies in the S&P 500 index totaled $158 billion, for surpassing the previous record that was set in the first quarter of this year. Buybacks in the third quarter will still be at a very high level, though at not quite the record pace set in the quarter that ended June 30."
http://www.marketwatch.com
"The most recent data that S&P has compiled covers the quarter that ended June 30. In that quarter, according to S&P, actual buybacks for the 500 companies in the S&P 500 index totaled $158 billion, for surpassing the previous record that was set in the first quarter of this year. Buybacks in the third quarter will still be at a very high level, though at not quite the record pace set in the quarter that ended June 30."
http://www.marketwatch.com
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Major panic lows are made on the NYSE when McClellan Oscillator (MCO) reaches below minus 300. This condition did materialize back in mid August on the NYSE and an intermediate term bullish sign flashed. To help confirm a major impulse wave up is about to begin, the MCO after reaching below minus 300 it should then rally above +200 to indicate initiation to the upside. The higher the MCO reading above +200, then the more bullish the signal. In late August and early September the MCO reached +256....in all cases major rallies were produced."
http://www.decisionpoint.com/tac/ord.html
"Major panic lows are made on the NYSE when McClellan Oscillator (MCO) reaches below minus 300. This condition did materialize back in mid August on the NYSE and an intermediate term bullish sign flashed. To help confirm a major impulse wave up is about to begin, the MCO after reaching below minus 300 it should then rally above +200 to indicate initiation to the upside. The higher the MCO reading above +200, then the more bullish the signal. In late August and early September the MCO reached +256....in all cases major rallies were produced."
http://www.decisionpoint.com/tac/ord.html
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I knew it - another reason of the 120 reasons to continue to ride the bull.
From TWSJ - Chinese Leap at Chance to Invest Outside - by Murray Coleman 9/28
"Global stock fund attracts $8 billion on its first day; five more firms lining up. Even managers at BNY Mellon Asset Management admit to being surprised at the opening day reception for their newest mutual fund. Within hours of launching on Sept. 13, their Southern Global Enhanced Balance Fund sold more than $2 billion in shares, and by day's end it had attracted some $8 billion.
The biggest surprise: Shares were sold only in China. It was touted as the first time a mutual fund featuring an all-stock portfolio of companies from around the globe - and more important, from outside mainland China - had been widely offered to Chinese investors.
This is just the start to the opening of a huge new market for mutual-fund investing. From now on, we're going to see a proliferation of mutual-funds based in China investing in overseas markets.
That's why Mellon's new all-stock global fund is seen as the first real successful move to open Chinese markets to foreign mutual funds. But others won't be far behind. Baltimore-based T.Rowe Price Group Inc. is one of five money managers expected to begin offering local investors a competing all-stock portfolio of non-China stocks."
Ferdinand, please stop smacking those lips and concentrate on filling up that wheelbarrow with superlative manure - we need to keep spreading it around.
I knew it - another reason of the 120 reasons to continue to ride the bull.
From TWSJ - Chinese Leap at Chance to Invest Outside - by Murray Coleman 9/28
"Global stock fund attracts $8 billion on its first day; five more firms lining up. Even managers at BNY Mellon Asset Management admit to being surprised at the opening day reception for their newest mutual fund. Within hours of launching on Sept. 13, their Southern Global Enhanced Balance Fund sold more than $2 billion in shares, and by day's end it had attracted some $8 billion.
The biggest surprise: Shares were sold only in China. It was touted as the first time a mutual fund featuring an all-stock portfolio of companies from around the globe - and more important, from outside mainland China - had been widely offered to Chinese investors.
This is just the start to the opening of a huge new market for mutual-fund investing. From now on, we're going to see a proliferation of mutual-funds based in China investing in overseas markets.
That's why Mellon's new all-stock global fund is seen as the first real successful move to open Chinese markets to foreign mutual funds. But others won't be far behind. Baltimore-based T.Rowe Price Group Inc. is one of five money managers expected to begin offering local investors a competing all-stock portfolio of non-China stocks."
Ferdinand, please stop smacking those lips and concentrate on filling up that wheelbarrow with superlative manure - we need to keep spreading it around.
camper65
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 4
Re: Birchtree's account talk
To quote Adm. Farragut), “Damn the torpedo’s, FULL SPEED AHEAD!”. HA,HA
To quote Adm. Farragut), “Damn the torpedo’s, FULL SPEED AHEAD!”. HA,HA
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Contrarian investing is easy, yet most investors refuse to take advantage of it. Why? Because we're psychologically primed to listen to the mainstream media and take the newspaper headlines at face value instead of using our better judgement and trading against the headlines. Once you've determined which direction the headlines are pointing then you can take the contrarian approach and go in the opposite direction of those headlines."
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2007/0928.html
"Contrarian investing is easy, yet most investors refuse to take advantage of it. Why? Because we're psychologically primed to listen to the mainstream media and take the newspaper headlines at face value instead of using our better judgement and trading against the headlines. Once you've determined which direction the headlines are pointing then you can take the contrarian approach and go in the opposite direction of those headlines."
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2007/0928.html
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
U.S. consumers spending rose 0.6% in August as most shrugged off credit and housing market turmoil - I bet they weren't buying equities like I was. Tame inflation readings will make the Fed's job mighty easy if it decides to cut rates again. The core PCE came in at 1.8% rise over the past 12 months. Cluck, cluck, I hope land and home prices continue to drop for 2008. The inverse head and shoulder patterns for the DJIA and SPX are projecting short term moves to 14,168 and 1587. Snort.
U.S. consumers spending rose 0.6% in August as most shrugged off credit and housing market turmoil - I bet they weren't buying equities like I was. Tame inflation readings will make the Fed's job mighty easy if it decides to cut rates again. The core PCE came in at 1.8% rise over the past 12 months. Cluck, cluck, I hope land and home prices continue to drop for 2008. The inverse head and shoulder patterns for the DJIA and SPX are projecting short term moves to 14,168 and 1587. Snort.
whitemingo
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 1
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birchtree,
I really appreciate the information you post. You are a wealth of information and knowledgeable in so many areas of investing.
Thank you,
Jeff
Birchtree,
I really appreciate the information you post. You are a wealth of information and knowledgeable in so many areas of investing.
Thank you,
Jeff
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Honestly, sometimes I don't just don't know why I expend my valuable energy. Somebody will undoubtedly derive some merit out of this read.
http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm
Honestly, sometimes I don't just don't know why I expend my valuable energy. Somebody will undoubtedly derive some merit out of this read.
http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm
whitemingo
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 1
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birchtree,
Please correct me if I am wrong. This is just info. This is not what you believe. It goes against everything that you discuss on a daily basis. It was a very interesting sideline but that is all. We are in a market that is going up and not for just 1 or 2 %. This market should be up 20% or better over the next year.
Birchtree,
Please correct me if I am wrong. This is just info. This is not what you believe. It goes against everything that you discuss on a daily basis. It was a very interesting sideline but that is all. We are in a market that is going up and not for just 1 or 2 %. This market should be up 20% or better over the next year.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I posted the article to salivate the bears that may be lurking. I don't really believe much of it but I don't want to be tagged as narrow minded - being tendentious is fine.
From my friends at Merrill Lynch by Maryann Bartels - Technical Research Analyst.
"Secular trend of 1942-68 all over again? An inflationary bull market marked by a period of global infrastructure development. The bull market from the 1982 lows to the highs in 2000 was similar to the secular uptrend from the mid 1940s to the mid 1960s in terms of duration (20 year, more or less) and performance (on the order of 1100%). The earlier period saw the DJIA rally from below 100 to near 1100; the 1982-2000 bull market rallied from below 1000 to 11,700. However, the fundamental underpinnings of the moves were different. The 1940s to 1960s was an "inflationary" bull market, while the bull market of the 1980s and 1990s was "disinflationary".
The new secular bull market in stocks from the 2002 lows is taking place in the context of a commodity bull market and a maturing, multi-decade downtrend in yields. It would seem, therefore, that this new uptrend has the potential to be an inflationary bull, making it more similar to the 1940s to 1960s.
A final point of comparison: the period from the end of World War II to the 1960s was a period of global infrastructure development (the Marshall Plan in Europe, the rebuilding of Japan, and the development of the U.S. Interstate Highway system). We believe that that period of infrastructure development has parallels today in the emerging economies (China and India)."
I posted the article to salivate the bears that may be lurking. I don't really believe much of it but I don't want to be tagged as narrow minded - being tendentious is fine.
From my friends at Merrill Lynch by Maryann Bartels - Technical Research Analyst.
"Secular trend of 1942-68 all over again? An inflationary bull market marked by a period of global infrastructure development. The bull market from the 1982 lows to the highs in 2000 was similar to the secular uptrend from the mid 1940s to the mid 1960s in terms of duration (20 year, more or less) and performance (on the order of 1100%). The earlier period saw the DJIA rally from below 100 to near 1100; the 1982-2000 bull market rallied from below 1000 to 11,700. However, the fundamental underpinnings of the moves were different. The 1940s to 1960s was an "inflationary" bull market, while the bull market of the 1980s and 1990s was "disinflationary".
The new secular bull market in stocks from the 2002 lows is taking place in the context of a commodity bull market and a maturing, multi-decade downtrend in yields. It would seem, therefore, that this new uptrend has the potential to be an inflationary bull, making it more similar to the 1940s to 1960s.
A final point of comparison: the period from the end of World War II to the 1960s was a period of global infrastructure development (the Marshall Plan in Europe, the rebuilding of Japan, and the development of the U.S. Interstate Highway system). We believe that that period of infrastructure development has parallels today in the emerging economies (China and India)."
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