thamm
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 0
Re: Birchtree's account talk
This one REALLY made me laugh, Birch! :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
This one REALLY made me laugh, Birch! :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The preliminary WSJ NYSE up to down volume ratio is about 30 to 1. You have to go back to 1982 to find plurality to match that magnitude. The one in August'82 was the greatest breadth thrust ever and launched the bull market. I hate to think how much my oceanic account made today - I want to do the same tomorrow. The problem I have now is that I already spent my money buying the down side - all I can do is relax and run in front of this bullish train. I refuse to take more profits until after Christmass - unless we move into another correction from higher levels. I'm still programmed for a Dow of 15,600 by the end of the year. It's going to be all up to dividend reinvestment from this point forward - I've made my bed and now I'll sleep in it. I think I'll go back and reread #1766 myself. Show me the epicenter - stocks will rock. Generally speaking the average stock will move in quarter point moves around the MCSUM level of +250, 1/2 point moves at the +500 level, 1point moves at the +750 level. This will be a triple pump of the NYSE breadth MCO and will pull the NYSE breadth MCSUM over its' zero line. Snort.
The preliminary WSJ NYSE up to down volume ratio is about 30 to 1. You have to go back to 1982 to find plurality to match that magnitude. The one in August'82 was the greatest breadth thrust ever and launched the bull market. I hate to think how much my oceanic account made today - I want to do the same tomorrow. The problem I have now is that I already spent my money buying the down side - all I can do is relax and run in front of this bullish train. I refuse to take more profits until after Christmass - unless we move into another correction from higher levels. I'm still programmed for a Dow of 15,600 by the end of the year. It's going to be all up to dividend reinvestment from this point forward - I've made my bed and now I'll sleep in it. I think I'll go back and reread #1766 myself. Show me the epicenter - stocks will rock. Generally speaking the average stock will move in quarter point moves around the MCSUM level of +250, 1/2 point moves at the +500 level, 1point moves at the +750 level. This will be a triple pump of the NYSE breadth MCO and will pull the NYSE breadth MCSUM over its' zero line. Snort.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Dennis/BT,
I still got a few boxes of C-Rations!
In the words of a good Clinton (which I'm sure you'll especially appreciate :laugh...I feel your pain.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
And I still got my old p50 hanging on my dog tags - essential equipment. You better catch this ride and stop playing around with CP. The shorts are going to scream big time tomorrow - there is little stock for them to buy for cover unless they really stretch - I'm not selling any of mine. The last time we had up down volume ratios like today was 1982. Back then I made $300,000 in ten months on hardly any money - this time I might do that in a month because now I've got that holy grail. Sorry, don't mean to be braggadocio I haven't made the money yet - I'm a dreamer with purpose.
And I still got my old p50 hanging on my dog tags - essential equipment. You better catch this ride and stop playing around with CP. The shorts are going to scream big time tomorrow - there is little stock for them to buy for cover unless they really stretch - I'm not selling any of mine. The last time we had up down volume ratios like today was 1982. Back then I made $300,000 in ten months on hardly any money - this time I might do that in a month because now I've got that holy grail. Sorry, don't mean to be braggadocio I haven't made the money yet - I'm a dreamer with purpose.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The old p50 poked a hole in me too many times!....:notrust:
How many holy grails does a person need.....
I dream too!....[where are the dang fish at??].....:embarrest:
The old p50 poked a hole in me too many times!....:notrust:
How many holy grails does a person need.....
I dream too!....[where are the dang fish at??].....:embarrest:
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Actually LRRP packets were the best - they predate todays MREs. I broke a tooth once eating chicken and rice - there was a bone in it. The company dentist patched me right up. It has taken me 40 years to buy that holy grail and only the Shadow knows where it will take me. If this thing is going to run hot you could easily make another $100,000 before the year is out.
Actually LRRP packets were the best - they predate todays MREs. I broke a tooth once eating chicken and rice - there was a bone in it. The company dentist patched me right up. It has taken me 40 years to buy that holy grail and only the Shadow knows where it will take me. If this thing is going to run hot you could easily make another $100,000 before the year is out.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
BT,
Sorry, all I had was C-rations. We got special packages from ?? that had gummy balls. It pulled a filling out!....Know what you mean!.....Damn!
Maybe I see it different, but once you have the bird in hand, then the rest of it is fun and games.
i.e., Retirement: I have a golf cart, no I don't play golf. It's for my dog, we ride around the neighborhood drinking margaritas and barking at other dogs....
Tomorrow we go fishing!....Problem is he gets sea sick!.....
BT,
Sorry, all I had was C-rations. We got special packages from ?? that had gummy balls. It pulled a filling out!....Know what you mean!.....Damn!
Maybe I see it different, but once you have the bird in hand, then the rest of it is fun and games.
i.e., Retirement: I have a golf cart, no I don't play golf. It's for my dog, we ride around the neighborhood drinking margaritas and barking at other dogs....
Tomorrow we go fishing!....Problem is he gets sea sick!.....
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
What a day for a day dream - dream'in about my bundle of joy. If I do half as well today as yesterday - I'm a happy camper. It's not my fault. I just own a nice portfolio and the Ducati is oiled and ready to climb the big V. Gesus, Michele looks good this morning - popping out all over the tube when they dare to show and tell. I'm a health care professional - trained to be observant. Snort.
What a day for a day dream - dream'in about my bundle of joy. If I do half as well today as yesterday - I'm a happy camper. It's not my fault. I just own a nice portfolio and the Ducati is oiled and ready to climb the big V. Gesus, Michele looks good this morning - popping out all over the tube when they dare to show and tell. I'm a health care professional - trained to be observant. Snort.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I've noticed today many of my friends are doing the bunny hop thing to the Lilly Pad and the F fund - ye of so little faith. We are currently only 20 points off the SPX all-time high of 1553. The foundation has been built that will move the SPX above the 1555 price resistance area. If the SPX breadth MCO moves above the double pump highs new all time highs on the index will be seen. The bulls now have enough control to move the underlying price pattern higher for the short term of maybe 4-6 weeks. Be right and sit tight. This is the beginning of a move that will be the best in a life time. If we in fact get anothetr high here on the MCOs this will all but confirm the center point of Primary wave 3 which means if you think yesterday's breadth and volume plurality were something you haven't seen anything yet. If this is the center of Primary 3 we will see higher ratio numbers than 1982. We are set up for an aggressive and robust rally as a result of all the negativity we have experienced in the last two months - we are coiled. If we are in the center point of Primary 3 we can and will become very, very overbought for long periods of time. Technical analysis will not provide guidance. I'm on cruise control and staying there - reaping the fruits of my previous buying jags. My friends I've been waiting years for this opportunity and I'm not going to blow it now - no cutting and running for me. I'm riding the bull because I remember the adrenalin rush off the 1982 bottom just like I remember the rush off the triple bottoms leading up to March 2003 - I'll gladly take another 3,000 points and a couple $M more. Snort.
I've noticed today many of my friends are doing the bunny hop thing to the Lilly Pad and the F fund - ye of so little faith. We are currently only 20 points off the SPX all-time high of 1553. The foundation has been built that will move the SPX above the 1555 price resistance area. If the SPX breadth MCO moves above the double pump highs new all time highs on the index will be seen. The bulls now have enough control to move the underlying price pattern higher for the short term of maybe 4-6 weeks. Be right and sit tight. This is the beginning of a move that will be the best in a life time. If we in fact get anothetr high here on the MCOs this will all but confirm the center point of Primary wave 3 which means if you think yesterday's breadth and volume plurality were something you haven't seen anything yet. If this is the center of Primary 3 we will see higher ratio numbers than 1982. We are set up for an aggressive and robust rally as a result of all the negativity we have experienced in the last two months - we are coiled. If we are in the center point of Primary 3 we can and will become very, very overbought for long periods of time. Technical analysis will not provide guidance. I'm on cruise control and staying there - reaping the fruits of my previous buying jags. My friends I've been waiting years for this opportunity and I'm not going to blow it now - no cutting and running for me. I'm riding the bull because I remember the adrenalin rush off the 1982 bottom just like I remember the rush off the triple bottoms leading up to March 2003 - I'll gladly take another 3,000 points and a couple $M more. Snort.
SkyPilot
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 40
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
I think you are right, and I anticipate a great 4th quarter.
But these short term moves are about peaks and dips. For a C fund buy and hold aficianado such as yourself, these folds making these moves may seem like doubters, but mostly just us trying to outsmart the market. Risky at best, but potentially profitable as well.
Birch,
I think you are right, and I anticipate a great 4th quarter.
But these short term moves are about peaks and dips. For a C fund buy and hold aficianado such as yourself, these folds making these moves may seem like doubters, but mostly just us trying to outsmart the market. Risky at best, but potentially profitable as well.
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 735
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Just an update here Birch:
The itch has been scratched.
I feel a consolidation for a couple days right around this level. Perhaps up a little bit today and tomorrow, and then level or down a slight tick over the next few days, as the markets digest what just happened.
I don't see ANY zepplins on the horizon.
I'll let you know if I see any zepplins, or if I get itchy.
See ya- and congrats on sitting in the pilot's seat.
Just an update here Birch:
The itch has been scratched.
I feel a consolidation for a couple days right around this level. Perhaps up a little bit today and tomorrow, and then level or down a slight tick over the next few days, as the markets digest what just happened.
I don't see ANY zepplins on the horizon.
I'll let you know if I see any zepplins, or if I get itchy.
See ya- and congrats on sitting in the pilot's seat.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"That, in a nutshell, is why contrarians expect the stock market to continue to have an upside bias."
http://www.marketwatch.com Mark Hulbert - Still a lot of doubt - Commentary: Newsletter editors largely skeptical of market rally.
Historically speaking a 30 to 1 up down volume ratios usually come in pairs, within six weeks of each other - so we may have another one coming.
"That, in a nutshell, is why contrarians expect the stock market to continue to have an upside bias."
http://www.marketwatch.com Mark Hulbert - Still a lot of doubt - Commentary: Newsletter editors largely skeptical of market rally.
Historically speaking a 30 to 1 up down volume ratios usually come in pairs, within six weeks of each other - so we may have another one coming.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Bottom line: while the road ahead will be bumpy as the economy struggles, Fed easing should help to revive risk-taking and is bullish for stock, commodity and energy prices, while capping the upside potential for Treasury prices."
http://bankcreditanalyst.com Reflation Trades: Thanks Ben
"Bottom line: while the road ahead will be bumpy as the economy struggles, Fed easing should help to revive risk-taking and is bullish for stock, commodity and energy prices, while capping the upside potential for Treasury prices."
http://bankcreditanalyst.com Reflation Trades: Thanks Ben
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I've just voluntarily posted the contents of my oceanic portfolio in the short term thread if anyone might be interested to peep. The amount value is pushing close to $1.6M and apparently there are a few doubting members - take a look and wonder how can that be real - it only takes hard work and lots of time. I'm fond of saying I bought the holy grail - you decide. Snort.
I've just voluntarily posted the contents of my oceanic portfolio in the short term thread if anyone might be interested to peep. The amount value is pushing close to $1.6M and apparently there are a few doubting members - take a look and wonder how can that be real - it only takes hard work and lots of time. I'm fond of saying I bought the holy grail - you decide. Snort.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index rose to 10.9 after a reading of zero in August that signaled growth had stalled. Increased demand from overseas as a weaker dollar made American goods cheaper has helped to off set slower consumer spending and the slump in housing. Gains in ma nufacturing may allay concern that last month's credit crisis, which caused borrowing costs to jump and toughened lending guidelines, would ripple through the economy." Fear the Donkey - not a weak dollar. The Donkey will try and kill the economy with taxes.
http://www.bloomberg.com
"The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index rose to 10.9 after a reading of zero in August that signaled growth had stalled. Increased demand from overseas as a weaker dollar made American goods cheaper has helped to off set slower consumer spending and the slump in housing. Gains in ma nufacturing may allay concern that last month's credit crisis, which caused borrowing costs to jump and toughened lending guidelines, would ripple through the economy." Fear the Donkey - not a weak dollar. The Donkey will try and kill the economy with taxes.
http://www.bloomberg.com
anthony
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 10
Re: Birchtree's account talk
birch-man - can you hook up a link. I'm not seeing the thread. I looked in short term strategies and short term outlook; no joy.
I have a bunch of free trades in my new USAA asset management account and a bunch of deployment money saved up so I'm looking at starting to build my portfolio. I have been value hunting and reading a ton of stuff on places like AAII and Motley Fool. I'm interested to compare some of your choices and/or run them through a screener. Enough of the mutual/index funds - it's time to take the plunge into stocks!
On a similar line of questioning, when stock picking do you have a bias toward earnings/growth versus dividends, or are you just a good bargain shopper regardless of the company's focus toward one or the other?
birch-man - can you hook up a link. I'm not seeing the thread. I looked in short term strategies and short term outlook; no joy.
I have a bunch of free trades in my new USAA asset management account and a bunch of deployment money saved up so I'm looking at starting to build my portfolio. I have been value hunting and reading a ton of stuff on places like AAII and Motley Fool. I'm interested to compare some of your choices and/or run them through a screener. Enough of the mutual/index funds - it's time to take the plunge into stocks!
On a similar line of questioning, when stock picking do you have a bias toward earnings/growth versus dividends, or are you just a good bargain shopper regardless of the company's focus toward one or the other?
Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
Re: Birchtree's account talk
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=117703&postcount=30
Here anthony.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=117703&postcount=30
Here anthony.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Anthony,
Whenever I select a stock I never plan on making any money until several years out - that's why I'm future oriented. I pick my positions and let the market come to me - that's the long way around for success. I recently had a young Merrill broker ask me how I selected my purchases - I told him sometimes I just pull them out of my a$$. Why would anyone want to buy any housing related stocks - because that situation will eventually turn around. If you pick a portfolio with ten stocks you may get only two that really outperform, but those two will more than compensate for any slower movers. We are in a life time bull market - the more you own, the more you can make. No capital preservation for me, only capital appreciation. My oceanic account gave back $10K yesterday - but today may end up a $40K or better up day - time will tell. Last year I kept saying the Dow would close out the year at 12,600 and only one member thought that was credible - it's history now. This year I firmly believe the year will close out at a Dow of 15,600 and I'm fully prepared to gather up the gains if this angle of ascent continues. Be right and sit tight. And remember friends do let friends buy and hold. Snort.
Anthony,
Whenever I select a stock I never plan on making any money until several years out - that's why I'm future oriented. I pick my positions and let the market come to me - that's the long way around for success. I recently had a young Merrill broker ask me how I selected my purchases - I told him sometimes I just pull them out of my a$$. Why would anyone want to buy any housing related stocks - because that situation will eventually turn around. If you pick a portfolio with ten stocks you may get only two that really outperform, but those two will more than compensate for any slower movers. We are in a life time bull market - the more you own, the more you can make. No capital preservation for me, only capital appreciation. My oceanic account gave back $10K yesterday - but today may end up a $40K or better up day - time will tell. Last year I kept saying the Dow would close out the year at 12,600 and only one member thought that was credible - it's history now. This year I firmly believe the year will close out at a Dow of 15,600 and I'm fully prepared to gather up the gains if this angle of ascent continues. Be right and sit tight. And remember friends do let friends buy and hold. Snort.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Liquidity inflow levels are an important gauge as to whether or not the stock market is in a corrective mode or a rally mode. When inflowing Liquidity is in Contraction, there is little money flowing into stocks, so the stock market pulls back or goes into correction." Take a peek into the future.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-8465.htm
"Liquidity inflow levels are an important gauge as to whether or not the stock market is in a corrective mode or a rally mode. When inflowing Liquidity is in Contraction, there is little money flowing into stocks, so the stock market pulls back or goes into correction." Take a peek into the future.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-8465.htm
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