Birchtree's Account Talk

[Whipsaw]

BT, blew your doors off good buddy!

 

[Birchtree]

Yes, I felt the vibration as you zoomed past - but you won't get far. I have 5 dividends to reinvest today in our sideways market: EXH, HXL, TRGP, APU WMK. Just got to keep the money working building my income stream. I think I may acquire a small position in FXI in the near future - it's a China large cap ETF. My contrarianism says go for XME while it's on bargain basement sale.

 

[Birchtree]

I surely wish my oceanic account could pull down another $1M for 2015, but I'm having my doubts that will happen. So I'll just keep buying when the opportunities present- actually have 77 dividend increase announcements so far ytd. Last year I ended with 167 increase announcements. In total I reinvest 876 dividends during the year

 

[Birchtree]

Decided to buy a few more fallen angels today: CLF,BTU, BAS, BBG. Please don't try this at home.

 

[hotwings]

Decided to buy a few more fallen angels today: CLF,BTU, BAS, BBG. Please don't try this at home.

CLF and BTU??? Living on the edge.... :} I guess no pain no gain. As a side note, I have some BTU and looking to pick up more. I have a feeling we might see sub $3 before the summer is out.

 

[Birchtree]

Sometimes you get a winner. I may have another buyout going down. This experience may even make amoeba envious. I started buying Dycom (DY) back in the summer of 2007 at $30 and tracked it buying down until October 2008 at $9 and then continued adding to my position until $18 and then decided to just let it run if it was going to go anywhere. Well today it is at $55 giving me a +$25K profit for a 229% gain. And I still don't want to let it go - perhaps a white knight will show up and offer to pay more. It wasn't that long ago when I was holding BAC for a -$7K loss - that has now turned into a +$56K gain and I expect that will double from here. It does pay to buy and hold.

 

[Rogue]

I finally managed to get past bjean on the tracker - now I'm tracking tom1tom1 and I'm so close I can smell his pheromones. I do believe the I fund owes me a few more dollars that may show today.

Birch, your profile shows that you have been invested 20% in C Fund and 80% in I fund since May 2011.
Is that right, you haven't made an IFT in 4 years?
Something must be wacko in the world, or I'm misreading something.
TSP Talk AutoTracker

 

[Birchtree]

I believe my allocation is the correct one - markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.

 

[Rogue]

I believe my allocation is the correct one - markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.

Gotcha.
I'm not questioning your allocation, but whether you have really not changed it in 4 years.

 

[Birchtree]

I don't plan to change my TSP allocation until 2017 when I roll to an IRA - I'm happy with 20C and 80I. This week was a quiet week but I did manage to make a few greenbacks: +$36K, -$27K, +$19K, +$24K, -$35K for a gain of +$17K. I'm now up +$137K for the month and with only 4 trading days left who knows other than the Shadow where I'll end up. I do have another bunch of dividends to be reinvested - then when June rolls around the number jumps to 105. Slow money is good money and it can last a lifetime. So I say it's good boy to be back, back, back, back in the USSR. I actually hate Obama and as a veteran I'll speak my mind.

 

[Birchtree]

I just counted 20 dividends of assorted values being delivered in the next 4 trading days - I have 17 dividends that are due for reinvestment June 1st. There's money coming in every day - it's impossible to stop. Remember that fear continues to be the strongest emotion keeping many investors out of this bull market - no fear here. There was some really bad news in the paper about the cost over runs on clean coal technology and even that doesn't scare me. The coal miners should all go on leave and let the utilities burn up their inventory and see how well solar panels and wind turbines can run the country. We need rolling brown outs to wake up the liberals that will be sweating. Coal produces 40% of capacity - shut it all down and see the appreciation rise up.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I don't plan to change my TSP allocation until 2017 when I roll to an IRA - I'm happy with 20C and 80I. This week was a quiet week but I did manage to make a few greenbacks: +$36K, -$27K, +$19K, +$24K, -$35K for a gain of +$17K. I'm now up +$137K for the month and with only 4 trading days left who knows other than the Shadow where I'll end up. I do have another bunch of dividends to be reinvested - then when June rolls around the number jumps to 105. Slow money is good money and it can last a lifetime. So I say it's good boy to be back, back, back, back in the USSR. I actually hate Obama and as a veteran I'll speak my mind.

I am considering 80/20 also next time I reallocate (from a third in each C, S, I).
You explained this once, but I forgot, what's ,making you stay away from the S...the best fund over the past several years, and outperforming the C this year??

 

[Birchtree]

Everything runs in cycles and the small caps have seen their gains - time for the large caps to rule. I think we are going to see an impressive market rally over the summer months. All the boats will float. Large caps will probably dominate for at least 5 years - maybe longer. Billie Jean is going to make out like a bandit at 100C.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Everything runs in cycles and the small caps have seen their gains - time for the large caps to rule. I think we are going to see an impressive market rally over the summer months. All the boats will float. Large caps will probably dominate for at least 5 years - maybe longer. Billie Jean is going to make out like a bandit at 100C.

Thanks.

Interesting though, that cycle portion large caps better than small caps) is typically the end of a multi year bull run. The next part of that cycle is a significant correction.
If we start seeing that phase in a few months, would you be willing to give up 10-20% of your gains, or would you also recognize that part of the cycle and go "F'n G" to preserve gains?

 

[Birchtree]

Preservation is not in my vocabulary - only appreciation. If the market corrects then my dividends work harder buying even more shares. It's the accumulation of shares that is the game. Stocks have moved up a lot since 2009. But based on the last three cycles over the past 100 years, there's still plenty of room to run. I've still got my sacrificial lamb chop account in place if any margin calls come looking for me. I suspect we'll even see the VIX in the 10 zone before summer ends. As long as the NYSE advance/decline line is happy then I'm happy. The current strength of this indicator suggests that this uptrend has further to run. I'm staying on the northbound journey.

 

[Birchtree]

Why are so many chasing my Time Warner Cable (TWC) - soon my Birchtree 300 will be Birchtree 250.

 

[Birchtree]

Gosh I really feel like jumping the rabbit today and selling my TWC at $180 even though the take out price is $195 - so I'll wait a little longer. I did however buy some:FTR, GLF, and MPX. Bring those sweet prices down. So I'll enjoy this consolidation as we move into June, many dividends in waiting mode.

 

[coastalite]

I don't plan to change my TSP allocation until 2017 when I roll to an IRA - I'm happy with 20C and 80I.

Hi Birchtree! Could you go noob 101 - and explain the advantages/disadvantages (in layman's terminology) of rolling from the TSP to an IRA? I'm assuming 2017 is when you plan to retire??? Do you roll it over in one lump sum? Do you plan to convert any of it to a ROTH IRA?

I'm assuming places like Vanguard (for example) have lower fees & more funds to choose from - is that the main attraction?

Sorry for such basic questions. If anyone else would rather answer - any info would be appreciated!

I'm about 15 years out & trying to figure out a good strategy. Our current strategy is just to MAX out the TSP each year - and also to MAX OUT both of our ROTH IRAs at Vanguard (and then at age 50, we will also MAX OUT on additional catch-up contributions each year as well - to accumulate as many shares as possible).

Thanks so much!

 

[Birchtree]

When you reach a certain age everything you do will have tax consequences. Rolling out of TSP when you can no longer make contributions is a smart maneuver because of the required minimum distribution - you can't choose the fund for distribution - they'll take the money across the board. Opening an IRA with a full transfer will protect your capital to a certain extent because you have more flexibility to build an income stream. The income stream in retirement is where you get some protection from market volatility as well as possible capital appreciation. I've already opened an IRA account at Merrill Edge for my wife when she is ready to get out of the saddle. I've been retired for a number of years and have just let my TSP account run with the wind. There is no tax consequences when you roll directly into an IRA - then you can buy any stocks or funds you want - I prefer the income stocks produce and most can be reinvested At some point once your finances stabilize you can gently roll some IRA money into a Roth IRA paying the tax as appropriate. Your life will depend on your adjusted gross income - try and keep as much as you can. A Roth IRA is a great mechanism for heirs when all withdrawals are tax free - but the flexibility is enormous. Your capital may decrease with market volatility but the income stream will remain constant. I've actually received 78 dividend increase announcements ytd - but I suspect I'll get close to 170. Circumventing the tax man is paramount to keep what is yours. Right now with Merrill Edge I have 100 free trades/month and will split those trades once the wife turns over her money. I believe you are on the right track - but I'd concentrate on individual stocks for greater freedom and better payouts. Plus if you need extra capital just sell a stock and keep everyone else working. You'll get the hang of it.

 

[Birchtree]

I forgot to mention that you now can roll directly into a Roth IRA but the taxes are prohibitive. I think just proceeding slowly is the best policy.