Birchtree's Account Talk

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The wind is at my back this morning so I'm buying: BBT, STI, FFG, PNC, AF, AVA, BLX, AIT, AXS, BXS. If the wind persists I may return later to collect more fine wall flowers - I need to put some money into coal and natural gas at some point.
 
I'm currently facing some headwinds but I'm still buying: LNG, GBX, KOL, BTU, CNX. If we get a snap back I might be looking at a +$200K week - if not it doesn't matter. There's always next week.
 
Here is what my oceanic account did this week: +$84K, +$63K, +$38K, -$28K, -$79K for a respectful gain of +$78K. I'm satisfied with the hammering today so we could now be set for more gains next week. I'm still optimistic for a fine April gain as we move forward. We'll see if I can gather up any buying power for next week - I'm still not inclined to do any selling and I may also have gained some tracker traction with my I fund position.
 
The paramont question now is will there be another Big Valley (V) bottom like we had in February - I think so. Mr. Dragi is getting ready to pump QE into the eurozone and that should have global implications for more liquidity and thus a stronger equity market - I'm holding my 20C/80I position until Moscow bows in the Ukraine.
 
What me worry you may ask, nah. Yesterday was the application of some bull tinky to cool down the momentum stocks - strictly a bull market phenomenon. We need days of thunder like this to keep the bears honest. As soon as I can rebuild more margin buying power I'll be off to the races to acquire as many precious wall flowers as possible - I've got to keep buying ahead of the Fed.
 
"There is expensive and then there is exorbitant. Small company stocks increasingly look like the latter. Consider: The S&P 500 index of large company stocks is up 176% since its low on March 9, 2009. Over the same period, the Russell 2000 index of small company stocks is up 236%. On some measures of value, small-cap stocks which are often used to juice a portfolio - look pricier than they ever have been. With that in mind, investors should consider cutting their holdings of small companies and favor the least speculative parts of the market. No matter how you slice the data, small caps look expensive."
 
Birchtree said:
"There is expensive and then there is exorbitant. Small company stocks increasingly look like the latter. Consider: The S&P 500 index of large company stocks is up 176% since its low on March 9, 2009. Over the same period, the Russell 2000 index of small company stocks is up 236%. On some measures of value, small-cap stocks which are often used to juice a portfolio - look pricier than they ever have been. With that in mind, investors should consider cutting their holdings of small companies and favor the least speculative parts of the market. No matter how you slice the data, small caps look expensive."
Click to expand...

Is that from Light's article in the WSJ?
 
Yes, it's is from the WSJ - glad I'm not the only one around here that reads it. So it's another soft day for the small caps - no matter to me I'm out to play in the yard while the weather is so nice. So bring in those golden prices that have long term income consequences for my account.
 
Since I enjoy pain as an investor - please bring me more. I'm continuously building on my income stream and lower prices gets me golden. I still think that April is going to explode into more rampaging bull - but the pain comes first. So I'm inclined to not sell anything and hold steady my 20C/80I position in my tugboat.
 
Dear hoofhearted, the time has come today when you should think (VWO) Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets is an excellent contrarian purchase for the next three years.
 
I believe I'm on the right set of tracks and heading in the correct direction with my oceanic account as well as my tugboat (TSP) account. From the WSJ: "Even though the economy is improving, interest rates are low and stock markets have been setting new highs, investors are still playing defense. Instead of piling into shares of companies with juicy growth prospects, fund managers are clamoring for steady if unexciting income of dividend paying stocks. Dividend-heavy stocks lagged behind shares of more rapidly growing companies in 2012 and 2013. They are benefiting as investors move money out of stocks with lofty price earnings ratios and into those they consider more reasonably priced. The appetite for dividend payers comes at a time when corporate America has been generally boosting payouts to shareholders." So keep those dividend increase announcements coming my way.
 
some would say the drive for income has already resulted in overpriced div stocks, Birch, not to mention that rotation into div-stocks is an indication of late-stage bull mkt. but no matter, you have $ to burn, no matter where we are in the market cycle. 30+ years of consistent strategery. way to go, big bull.

some of us don't have that kind of time, came to the party late, knowledgewise. have to deal with reality, go with different strategy. now for the youngsters in the crowd....your strategy could very well pay off like it has for you, if they pay attention soon enough.
 
alevin said:
some would say the drive for income has already resulted in overpriced div stocks, Birch, not to mention that rotation into div-stocks is an indication of late-stage bull mkt. but no matter, you have $ to burn, no matter where we are in the market cycle. 30+ years of consistent strategery. way to go, big bull.

some of us don't have that kind of time, came to the party late, knowledgewise. have to deal with reality, go with different strategy. now for the youngsters in the crowd....your strategy could very well pay off like it has for you, if they pay attention soon enough.
Click to expand...


I don't have any money to burn But I have on occasion thrown some spill money into a corner of the market that has a funky smell to it - that's the value contrarian part of my nature.
 
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