Birchtree's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
What do you think a retrenchment to a QE 5 would do to the bull market - asset bubbles for everybody. The Fed wants an inflation rate of 3% and the Kress cycles will be pushing down on their policies - they may have to resort to a QE 5 type of program. The economy will remain weak kneed until Liar in Chief is out of office. There will only be limited capital expenditures and few jobs created until we get pro-business leadership and a roll back of oppressive regulations. The Republican revolution restarts in November. One must simply stay long this bull market and reap the rewards - and for the rabble that don't have enough money to invest you have my sympathy.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Speaking of Kress Cycles, did you read Clif Droke's book? If so, would you recommend it as a good read?
Click to expand...

I've never read his book nor do I plan to read it - I'm too far gone in that respect. I don't really need anymore in depth information cluttering my brain.
 
Birchtree said:
"...cycles through the 60 year cycle will also be cascading into their final bottom around late September/early October." These cycles are what the Fed will be fighting.

A Preview of the Next Global Crisis | Clif Droke | Safehaven.com
Click to expand...

Hmmm... and yet you talk about them a lot, so I assume you believe in them. Do you plan to ride the big 60 year Kress cycle all the way to the bottom this fall? Or will you sidestep it this summer and buy back in on the cheap? You could double your money. Wouldn't that be something.
 
I'm of the opinion the Kress cycles may be stretched into 2015 - therefore I'm sitting tight throughout 2014. September is a big dividend month for me so I'll take what ever comes my way.
 
Some potential low inflation crimps broader Fed strategy from my WSJ.

"U.S. inflation ran below the Federal Reserve's target for the 22nd straight month in February. a development that could give some central-bank officials pause as they debate whether to keep pulling back on bond purchases and when to start raising short term interest rates. Fed officials have said they intend to keep pulling back this year on the bond-buying program, launched in 2012 to help spur growth, but might change course if inflation substantially undershoots their expectations or the labor market fails to live up to their projections. Consistent undershooting on inflation also could lead them to delay interest rate increases, now expected to begin in 2015. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, annual inflation held steady last month at 1.1%. Annual core inflation has remained just above 1% since last April." I can just imagine how the bull will react.
 
And then there is this from the euro-zone. "Spanish consumer prices unexpectedly fell from a year ago and German inflation edged below 1%, suggesting the euro zone is edging closer to a period of extremely low inflation or even broad-based price declines known as deflation. The inflation figures frm two of the bloc's four largest economies put further pressure on European Central Bank officials to consider fresh stimulus measures when they meet Thursday, including negative rates on bank deposits. ECB officials have cited stable anchored inflation expectations as a factor in keeping their monetary policies unchanged. If these expectations start to wobble, the case for additional easing steps would grow."
 
April in the last two years has not held me in favor, but I remain resolute for much better times. In April 2012 I ended with a -$44K loss and in April 2013 I ended with a +$7K gain. So this time around I expected to be rewarded handsomely for my due diligence of remaining positive like a good perma bull that I am.
 
The reason that stocks are a buy is that bond yields are at deflationary levels - deflation is the next stone in the wall of worry. We are going to hear more and more about the harm deflation can do to the economy. When prices fall outright you get Japan of the last two decades. Staying with the bull.
 
I'm currently reinvesting 876 dividends for the year - I'd like to get the opportunity to pump that up to +1000. It's been a nice way to increase my income stream and still get some income tax benefits. Ytd I'm at 53 dividend increase announcements and anticipating more as the year rolls on. This is all set on automatic pilot until my heir takes over. So let the good times keep me and Ferdinand in clover.
 
Will the ECB act against low inflation and will the Fed taper the tapering - those are the important questions in my mind as I try to think ahead a year out into the future. With the 60 year Kress cycle in its possible final year of descent, a final phase of deflationary pressure in the global economy can't be ruled out. So what does an invester do - well you stick with improved profit margins which are at record levels for companies. It's clear that the U.S. middle class has yet to fully participate in the recovery, but their participation should be evident by 2015 once the deflationary undercurrents of the Kress cycle has been dissipated. So for me the correct posture is to stay long and strong. All in is the only way to play this game. A wise investor is positioning for a year from now.
 
A 6% 10-year note is the line in the sand. If April does what I think it will do and I make the money I think I will make - I'm going to have to go to Ace Hardware and buy a bigger wheelbarrow.
 
Do I trust Wall Stree - absolutely not. Does it matter - absolutely not. I just work around the arena and try not to get stepped on in the process. What I do know is that I will continue to make money and on some occasions be forced to give some back. So let the games to wealth making continue. I've got a good twenty more years to reap as much benefit as possible before I'm forced to pull in my horns. I'm still holding out for a 2400 SPX and a 24,000 Dow end of 2014.
 
Birchtree said:
I'm currently reinvesting 876 dividends for the year - I'd like to get the opportunity to pump that up to +1000. It's been a nice way to increase my income stream and still get some income tax benefits. Ytd I'm at 53 dividend increase announcements and anticipating more as the year rolls on. This is all set on automatic pilot until my heir takes over. So let the good times keep me and Ferdinand in clover.
Click to expand...

That is stunningly impressive, Chief. Job well done.
 
The clouds have finally opened up providing margin buying power going forward - anything positive today in my oceanic account means money to spend on my wall flowers. Margin really means I get buying power without selling anything - of course it's not free. So we'll see where the bull market takes me during the rest of the year - my plan is to pyramid my gains and keep on buying as we move higher in price. "The party in the stock market may not be just getting started - but is not yet close to being over. The VIX will undoubtedly drop back into the 12 zone today. Low readings in the VIX simply denote an expectation that significant moves, either up or down, are unlikely over the next 30 days. Low VIX readings don't always translate into imminent selloffs. The VIX Index traded between 10 and 20 for the better part of the bull market that unfolded between 2003 and 2007. The upcoming rally may be so steep that it defies gravity's laws.
 
Ferdinand is pulling me along on my skate board - so I'll be doing some buying today. It looks like the ECB is getting ready to prime the pump.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: TSP Investors Lock in Gains
Replies
1
Views
745
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
Problem with IFTs on Monday morning
Replies
3
Views
380
FireWeatherMet
FireWeatherMet
tsptalk
  • Article Article
The winning streak finally ends as stocks dip to start the week
Replies
0
Views
200
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Stocks continue to act well despite some obstacles
Replies
0
Views
96
tsptalk
tsptalk
J
TSP beneficiary question
2
Replies
26
Views
1K
evilanne
evilanne
Back
Top