".....However, we should keep in mind the S&P 500 had 16 negative weeks in 2013 within the context of a bullish trend. Down days and down weeks fit into the countertrend category until proven otherwise....." - 'nuff said.
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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
".....However, we should keep in mind the S&P 500 had 16 negative weeks in 2013 within the context of a bullish trend. Down days and down weeks fit into the countertrend category until proven otherwise....." - 'nuff said.
Birchtree
Well-known member
The first week of the new year was unremarkable for my oceanic account: +$7K, +$36K, -$61K, +$13K for a small give back of -$5K. The first two ays of January have left me -$48K in the hole but I'll not worry about that. The tell will be next week when the big money goes back to work wanting to get invested - so much money, so little time will be their mantra. I just know it's going to be a very fun year to ride the wooley beast.
Birchtree
Well-known member
From my WSJ. "Investors were tiptoeing into U.S. stock funds in the fourth quarter, while pulling dollars out of bond funds - a pattern they followed for the full year as well. In the quarter through Dec. 23, investors pumped a net $6.5 billion into U.S. stock funds, according to estimates from the Investment Company Institute trade group. The amount that flowed into U.S. funds was far below the estimated net $39.7 billion that flowed into foreign stock funds in the quarter. Meanwhile, investors pulled a net $55.8 billion from bond funds in the quarter, continuing a rush out of bonds that began in June. For the full year through Dec. 23, the estimated data show a total of $19.1 billion in net new cash flowed into U.S. stocks, while $140.5 billion went into foreign stocks. (And I thought I had the I fund all to myself). Bond funds saw an outflow of $80 billion for the year, following four years in which investors were voracious buyers of bond funds." Come to papa, the great rotation will persist for years.
Birchtree
Well-known member
"At some point in the future, the party will end but we suspect that the next bear market may only arrive after 2-3 years...and rate hikes may only start in 2016. ...the primary uptrend in stocks should remain intact for as far as the eye can see."
Party On! | Puru Saxena | FINANCIAL SENSE
Birchtree
Well-known member
"Last year, financial stocks beat investors' fairly modest expectations and surged even more than the overall market, helped by an improving economic outlook and more investment banking activity. KIt was the second year in a row in which bank shares have done better than the S&P 500 stock index. Will they three-peat? Investors small and large seem to think so, judging by cash flows into financial stock funds and the optimism of large money managers. A good round of fourth quarter earnings, which begin next week for U.S. lenders, could give further impetus to the 'bank is beautiful' theme."
"Natural gas prices surged to all-time highs on the East Coast on Monday as frigid weather approached, raising the prospect of higher prices nationwide in coming weeks. $90 - natural gas price rose as high as this at a key New Jersey pipeline. Gas boom aside, coal isn't dead."
Birchtree
Well-known member
"Buybacks are likely to remain strong in 2014. Now imagine the melt-up potential of the stock market if the Great Rotation by retail investors from bonds into stocks continues to build momentum."
Dr. Ed's Blog: Buybacks, Great Rotation, and Melt-Up (excerpt)
Birchtree
Well-known member
My wife asked me the other day how much money I made the last two years. Well low and behold I had an oceanic capital appreciation of +$2.221M. So what should I do right now? Party on, of course. I'm just getting warmed up with a new multi-decade Supercycle bull market. I'll be buying during any panic upside stampedes and I know they are coming.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Inquiring minds would like to know what her reaction was. Perhaps you can upload the video to youtube for all to enjoy. :blink:
Birchtree
Well-known member
Whenever I ask my wife what does money give us - the answer is always freedom. She will retire sometime in 2014 so her income won't be added into our AGI - I'll be doing some select harvesting of capital gains and I want to stay away from Barack Obozo taxes. Her retirement income is controlled to the extent I have flexibility in taking capital gains without increased tax penalty - this is how I planned for our future. The bull is set to run several more years providing generational opportunities.
hotwings
Member
BT,
I assume your wife is a Federal Employee investing in TSP? Just curious.... after she retires, is she going to move all or part of her TSP into a Roth or Traditional IRA or keep it in TSP? Also, your thoughts on setting up a trust to manage a stretch or inherited IRA just in case something unforseen happens to you guys?
Birchtree
Well-known member
My wife will eventually move her Florida FRS account to an IRA probably with Merrill Edge so that we can purchase individual stocks to provide more sheltered income as we get older - then over time we'll move shares to a Roth IRA to avoid the required minimum distributions and just pay taxes up front. A Roth IRA is a great way to leave tax free income to an heir. Our objective will be to keep taxes as low as possible. So the more we are in controll of our AGI the more we get to keep. Capital gains are beneficial to keep the IRS away from our door. Retirement requires long term planning that's for sure. A few years back we converted her defined benefit retirement plan to a defined contribution plan following an SPX index - making around $23K per point. The last quarter should prove very lucrative - with me around she was not afraid to assume risks. And I will eventually follow her lead and transfer my tugboat (TSP) to the IRA and then to the Roth IRA to avoid taking income. I believe the bull is going to pump up my net worth by several more million dollars - investing does keep me occupied. Snort.
Birchtree
Well-known member
I picked up my first two dividend increase announcements today - many more to come throughout 2014. I hope to better my 2013 total of 158. Talk about a cola - dividend income is fine money that is regular and on schedule and taxed at only 15%. So the question is what stocks will I acquire for my wife when she transfers her FRS retirement money to an IRA - I'll leave that answer up to Mindylou - she knows best. But I'm sure there are plenty of equity wall flowers to go around.
Birchtree
Well-known member
"Stock market outlook for 2014."
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43878.html
Another down day and a few more dividends go to work for the boss.
coastalite
Member
Birch, for those of us nervous nellies... In an earlier post you made in late Dec... you said (and I am paraphrasing) that if the first 2 weeks of Jan are down.. then something is wrong...
Is there an indicator for when it's time to hit the panic button and move to G - or are you going to hold your 20c 80i position for the long haul - no matter what? Thanks!
Birchtree
Well-known member
No one can predict the future but when you own equities you are buying the future - so I'll hold my 20C/80I for the foreseeable future. I have no reason to lighten up. I'm waiting for more margin to purchase more wall flowers as we move into 2014 - the more you have in the more you can win. We're having a weak start to January but it really doesn't mean anything for my strategy - full speed ahead.
wavecoder
Active member
The Dow could crash to 2000 pts and birch would still be all in and bullish. golden prices to collect more wallflowers from dividends *snort*
Birchtree
Well-known member
If we get any kind of crash I hope it can wait until March or June - my heaviest dividend months or even September. No sense wasting a good correction. Now if more margin buying power builds I can simply sit on that buying power and wait for the correction and by doing that I waste opportunity to continue to build my income stream. Anyway, it's all good for 2014.Similar threads
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