Birchtree's Account Talk

One of the hardest lessons to learn is you can’t time the market, another hard lesson wanting to sell when the market crashes.

Of course you can time the market. The real trick is timing it correctly, and doing it successfully over changing market conditions.
 
One of the hardest lessons to learn is you can’t time the market, another hard lesson wanting to sell when the market crashes.

You don't have to 'time the market' with everything you've got. Why not have a standard allocation and spice it up with 10%-20% moving around? Then you have a base allocation set to science and a potential for a bit of alpha for fun and - hopefully - profit.

Just remember, to market time you have to make two trades. Gotta time the trade into the market and the trade out of the market - then rinse and repeat. Personally, I like my baseline allocation to take advantage of all those 1%er's trying to stay in the 1%er range. I just know they would hate downsizing from enormous mansions to a McMansion.
 
Congrats on the strange barbell allocation. I think it will make 2014 even more successful than 2013 for you.
 
If I can pull in +$24K today I'll have a gain of +$1.5M in my oceanic account for 2013. I would like to better that mark in 2014 because I am definitely greedy. Snort.

From my WSJ. "In the best year for U.S. stocks since 1995, the smart way to play the markets has been to follow the dumb money. So-called dumb money strategies, which involve buying and holding a plain-vanilla portfolio of U.S. stocks, did much better than the more complex approaches employed by hedge funds and other professional investors. Fueled by easy money from the Federal Reserve and signs of improvement in the economy the DJIA goes into the final day of 2013 with a gain of 29% once dividends are included, while the S&P 500 has climbed 32%. Those gains far outpace the rally predicted by even the most bullish Wall Street strategists."
 
I bought everything I could during the triple bottom of 2002-2003 and held everything I could during the 2008 smash and now I have a long market equity of $6M working in my favor. That base provides a lot of power and will help me succeed in 2014. I'll stay on margin building my debt hole until I reach the $10M base and then slowly back'er out taking careful capital gains - at least that's the long term plan. I rode the woolly beast through the 1970s and was there for the 1982 takeoff - and have stayed long through the 1990s and am still confident enough to make $Ms going forward. There is plenty of fear around to make lots of serious money yet.
 
I was going to purchase some more wall flowers but decided to wait until Thursday when I pick up 30 free trades/month. That's a total of 360 free trades during 2014 and I plan to make somewhere around 500 trades. The more you have in the more you can win and if 2014 is anything like 1996 there is going to be tremendous potential to acquire further wealth. Time in the market, not market timing, offers the greatest chance for investment success. I wish to thank my dividends for doing most of the heavy lifting in 2013 - and they will continue their role alongside my margin buying in 2014. My wife is retiring in 2014 and this will allow me to take some capital gains and still remain below some of Barack Obozo's taxes - and the best thing is the IRS can't touch me.
 
EricDeLee,

You can collect 30 free trades a month at Merrill Edge, providing you qualify. Normal internet trades are $4.95 each. I think it takes $50K to qualify.

Here are my weekly balances for December: -$24K, -$93K, +$168K, +$155K, +$43K for a handsome gain of +$249K and a yearly gain of +$1.510M. Now it's on to 2014 and a raucous time it will be. I only missed my December gola of +$400K by $151K - it just goes to prove you can't always get what you want. Now both 1996 and 1997 had double digit gains following 1995. I'm so ready to blow the roof off the barn.
 
The manure pile is growing larger every day - now just a wee bit over +$6.3M. It will grow like a mushroom in 2014 with all the buying I'll be doing - the oceanic is on autopilot and I can't stop it from making money - thanx Janet. I know it sounds easy but I've waited 40 years to reach this sweet spot and I'll harvest as I go. Playing on margin means I can get buying power without having to sell any of my precious wall flowers - yes I play a dangerous game and that's why I'll devote some attention to my sacrificial lamb chop account in case I get hit with a blindside - and those blindsides can be mean.
 

Where were you in the depths of early 2009 compared to now? Now that's a chart I'd like to see - the explosive growth over the last five years of the Oceanic account!
 
Gosh if I recall correctly my long market value was holding somewhere slightly over +$800K and I was -$1M out on the bottom in December 2008. Then I dumped over $8ooK I had in CDs into the market and started buying everything that smelled like a skunk. Damn those were some good cherry picking purchases but it took mucho guts to step in front of that train. I'm so glad I felt no pain and threw everything I had down the wet cold rabbit hole. I made over 1,000 dollar cost trades in 2009 and about the same in 2010. Now I'm just riding the glory and will keep on riding until the bull bucks me off - which may not happen for years.
 
The marvelous wonder of margin is that every time I get a daily gain it goes directly to buying power and also builds cash. Now it's not free by any means - I pay 2.75% interest on my loan which just happens to be tax deductable - sort of like a heloc. This could provide me with ample potential to really get the giddy going as the bull continues to stampede - but then there will be some turbulence along the way - that's accepted as the cost of doing business. So no one should try this until you really know who you are - the back office girls will show you absolutely no mercy - they think the money belongs to them and they are correct.
 
The margin available cap will grow as my equity grows - the equity is the collateral. So if I get a margin call that sweetheart in the back office can sell me out pronto if I don't meet my obligations. So my sacrificial lamb chop account will help keep me ahead and out of danger. It saves me from having to dip into my base for sale candidates.
 
The higher up we go the higher the point gains will come in both share prices and index amplitude - that's why I think 24,000 is within reach in 2014.
 
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