Birchtree's Account Talk

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When the shorts pile on to cover the bull will run parabolic and cause the bond holders even more anxiety - it's one thing to miss the train but to also miss the boat is doubly cost prohibitive. But capitulation is on the horizon and the door is only so wide. We may certainly get a melt-up in the next six weeks - how long can mom and pop hold out without any gains. Money will flow out of bonds for years. You want to love markets that are hated. You want to be afraid of markets that are loved. Be in to win.
 
Birchtree said:
The Bears Are Deep In Their Caves [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, ProShares Short S&P500 (ETF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF), Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares, Direxion Daily Small Cp Bull 3X Shs(ETF)] - See

"Small cap stocks have been leading the majority of the year but have surrendered momentum to larger blue-chip names."

If you think you know when this bull market finally comes to an end, you are kidding yourself. You have to think longer term.
Click to expand...

BT,
I'm in your camp, although I have some dry powder left just in case. You need to throw in the Hedge Fund Managers who are playing the Long/Short as well. They need to show their clients that they can do better than the "buy and hold" investors which they haven't so far this year. As the Doobies would say, this bull market might be a "Long Train Running".
 
BT,

I know you like to invest in some hated stocks and ride them up..aka Bank and hopefully Coal stocks. With that being said, what's your take on JCP after the David Tepper effect wears off? I have memories of KMart, Best Buy etc...and wondering if JCP can turn it around given the economy is slowly getting better. Thoughts?
 
I'd prefer ANN or AEO over JCP. I remember when JCP gave up their auto repair business in the 1970s - so I'll save my money on this one.
 
The fear of missing this next rally move is building at a tense level - perhaps Monday I'll see a 200 or 300 point gap up - I've been patiently waiting for it to happen.

My oceanic account did fine this week: +$8K, -$30K, +$57K, +$28K, +$30K for a nice pop of +$93K. I have 9 days remaining to make another +$100K
 
"Even though stocks look expensive, there are many reasons to think this bull could continue. The bottom line: Investors shouldn't flee the market now simply because they think a pullback is due, but they should get ready in case the market goes much higher from here. For one, small investors have only just returned to the market. This year through October, investors have put $111 billion into U.S. stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, according to research firm Morningstar. That doesn't yet make up for the $134 billion they have taken out of stocks since 2009. In the four years leading up to the tech bubble's peak in 2000, investors put $471 billion into U.S. stock funds, according to Morningstar."
 
This permabull is starting to think more in terms of +$300K months. Jan.'13 gave me a +$304K pop, July '13 gave me a +$308K pop and Sept. '13 came so very close with a +$280K pop - now I'm waiting on Nov. '13 currently at +$114K. It's just a matter of time. Bull market rallies can be sharp, quick, loud, noisey, make you feel good, get people talking about them and sometimes never look back to fill.
 
Birchtree said:
I own CLF and three or four steel companies and I DCA them as often as practical.

It looks like mom and pop are trying to get through the door - stand aside because here we go. They are finally smart enough to recognize the risk of getting left behind once more.
Click to expand...

Which steel companies are you liking more...X, NUE, RS, AKS?
 
I own several companies that I consider steel oriented: AKS, AP, TKR, TRN to name a few. I think I may do some buying today to keep life interesting.
 
I'm having fun chasing Ferdinand and spending money: BAC, LPX, DRC, WMB, CSX, AIT, VMC. It's a great time to buy equities and reap profits - I'm working on my income stream. I forgot to mention earlier that I own a large blok of MT which is a steel company.
 
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