Birchtree's Account Talk

[Devilduck]

Thanks BT. Devaluing nearly 1% from a positive gain on chart to me is extreme. I don't agree with it but as you said the door swings both ways. Good to know in advance though, ill stick it out regardless.

 

[WorkFE]

That S going Potentially above 22 got you thinking. Looking at your move (I), do you believe some settling in Egypt will pull the dollar back down next week?

 

[FAB1]

Thanks BT. Devaluing nearly 1% from a positive gain on chart to me is extreme. I don't agree with it but as you said the door swings both ways. Good to know in advance though, ill stick it out regardless.

Its sweet to sell the I after a big down $ day caused a rally in the I. otherwise holding the I you will eventually get what happened yesterday.

 

[Birchtree]

If you have no fear of taphophobia here are a few previously posted bullish comments. My point is that higher interest rates are not in and of themselves a good reason to lower your expectations of the stock market's return over the next year, or the next decade. If we get the same kind of effect from QE2 that we got from QE1, then the Dow should add another 50% before the summer and that would put us at Dow 15,000 - now don't faint.

 

[Birchtree]

I think it may be time to seek deeper water. Because my visitation base is somewhat light I find myself having to resort to being tendentious to make my bullish points. Here are a few more that have been previously posted. U.S. equities are now fairly confirmed to be in a major Wave 3 advance. Signals are indicating that the 10 year long lateral bear market is over. This puts us in an ultra bullish 3 of 3 of 3 mode. The full wave 3 has targets at the 2007 highs at SPX 1565.15 - now don't faint. This is still a relatively young bull market. In the bigger scheme of things, it's even possible we are now only in 1 of a larger scale 5. When we arrive at the mid-point of wave 3 known as the point of recognition is met, the flood of capital from mom and pop and bonds will propel markets much higher. You don't want to cut and run too often because you'll become evanescent. Money is now jockying for position and any buying could turn into panic buying providing a parabolic ascent to SPX 1400. When the VIX breaks back below 15.00 will put the value at a level not seen since July 2007 - that'll be time to worry a little. Until then the current rally has taken on a quality reminiscent od 1995, 1998/99, 2003 and 2009.

 

[Steadygain]

Birch,
Since this Egypt stuff is simply a spotlight in 'the moment' --- just like Greece and all the others had their moment.

All the more since the underlying principals of this 'recovery' have absolutely nothing to do with that 'temporay ruckus'.

Instead of bailing and losing out. Note S and C are heading up - and F is getting what it's letter implies...

Well - don't you think it's better to just stay the course - and reap in the profits???

Or are you still thinking of putting 50% in F or G ?

 

[Birchtree]

My prescience along with Mindylou says stick with the global economy - staying with C/I for the duration.

 

[Birchtree]

I've only got $4K in buying power so I can't even buy a position in WEN. C'mon Ferdinand push this market higher and liberate me. I have sweet wall flowers wanting my nurturing.

 

[Bquat]

I've only got $4K in buying power so I can't even buy a position in WEN. C'mon Ferdinand push this market higher and liberate me. I have sweet wall flowers wanting my nurturing.

Ok, give me about 25 minutes and I'll put some water on your flowers to help them grow.

 

[JamesE]

staying with C/I for the duration.

Looks like a kick in the nads for the I funders today. That bums me out, I was thinking about wading in. May get a nice FV though.

 

[Bquat]

Ok, give me about 25 minutes and I'll put some water on your flowers to help them grow.

Is the water helping? Ok we been drifting up late in the day lately but thought I might help.

 

[crws]

My prescience along with Mindylou says stick with the global economy - staying with C/I for the duration.

(Tried to find him with a cat, oops, I mean "Investment Advisor", but they were in short supply )

 

[Birchtree]

I started out the week thinking it would have the potential to be a cracker jack move - but then poof. Here is what the oceanic accomplished: +$43K, +$81K, -$25K, +$2K, -$3K for a gtand total of $98K. At week #100 from the March'09 low I've gained $1681K - slowly but surely heading for the $2M mark. Perhaps a good week next week will get me closer to that goal. Once I make another $26K I'm building buying power and that's really what I want to do - keep buying all the way to the distant, very distant top. The VIX did tumble back into the 15.90 level with a give back of 0.79. Heck, if I can pop another $98K I'll be very satisfied. My tugboat is slowly climbing the ladder - hope I didn't have to buy that $0.17 that the I fund owed me from yesterday when I repositioned today. As a bull I'm having great fun making money and have no fear of any consolidation - hit me with your best shot. Snort.

 

[Steadygain]

Have a great weekend Birch.


If I'd go somewhere and become a Certified Suba Diver - say in the next few years.

How long does that last ??

What do you have to do to keep it up??

 

[Birchtree]

CNBC talking heads are scared of the VIX and the CBOE put/call ratio to the point of releasing bull tinky on their paws. I don't think we'll see any consolidation of significance until we get a blow off spike to SPX 1400 and beyond. Constructive cyclical or short term forces, including a reviving industrial economy and continued rising corporate profits, could continue to influence the flow of liquidity in the direction of stocks for at least the next year or so. The point of recognition is building and I'm staying long and strong. It's too risky to get out for even a few days in this heated environment. There is even more leverage coming for the upside - I don't know how high but I'll be there. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Steady,

I got my NAUI certification in the 1970s and it's good for life. Really aside from learning the safety features it allows you to purchase air. My daughter and her husband got their certification in Hawaii in about three weeks time - mine took about ten weeks with a written exam and several open water dives.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm trying to think ahead as to how much my long market value would be if the SPX did indeed rise to 2854 by 9/2013. I simply don't have the capacity to dream that far ahead. I do know that the potential exists to double my current value - but beyond that is purely speculation. The only thing I know for sure is that I won't die broke because I'm staying fully invested in stocks - building income that will last for eternity. This wave 3 will not allow much trading in and out successfully - you all need to be aware of that. This market is going to make the courageous hoofhearted folks very rich.

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks Birch

That's what I was hoping -- it's something I would very much enjoy when going to various places.

 

[Birchtree]

Kudlow had an excellent program tonight with a very fine tribute to Ronald Reagan. It was President Reagan that brought this Vietnam Veteran from out of his fifteen year closet - I'll always be greatful for his understanding.

 

[Birchtree]

A few choice statistics from the Wall Street Journal. "For the full year, productivity was up 3.6% in 2010 and 3.5% in 2009. For the year, unit labor costs fell 1.5% after a similar drop in 2009. That is the first time since 1962-1963 that unit labor costs fell in teo cosecutive years."

"Blue chip stocks kicked off the new year with their strongest January in 14 years, as a boom in corporate revenues and robust economic readings gave investors confidence that the U.S. economy has turned a corner."

And here is one reason I happen to like the I fund. "Large companies have rebounded faster than smaller firms from the recent recession, in part because they are more likely to sell globally and take advantage of economic growth in emerging markets."