Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

If you never had money then you don't miss it. But money sure does buy happiness and a lot of other things too.

 

[Birchtree]

Big bull markets always find a way to keep you frightened and out. Big bull markets are devils with no conscience - to get in you have to close your eyes and just do it. Not easy, but in this business nothing is easy except losing money.

 

[Birchtree]

"Are mid-cap stocks set to lead the market higher?"

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24624.html

 

[amoeba]

Is this the penultimate head fake or what?

OOOOH:

Right. That U-shaped daily trade, on heavy volume, bouncing short of the 50 DMA in the SPY. And I_T noting in the recent IFT's he would go all I-fund if he had the IFT's to do so.

A no-brainer deadcat ya think? Not necessarily. And nothing has to happen this week either - it could be later. The I-fund is still pretty frothy - - - just off it's recent peak.

I sense a big move - soon. Perhaps several...the year ain't over yet.

 

[Birchtree]

Amoeba,

How do you like the action for today? If you are going in for December - don't putz around. Put all your money to work so you'll have a positive gain on the year. In the bigger scheme of things it really doesn't matter whether it's of Primary or Cycle degree for we're going to see numbers on the upside that are going to dwarf anything you might imagine. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Today was a good day. When the Dow was down 150 points my oceanic account was off $32K - after the rebound on the close I'm ahead $500. Can't complain about that. I think we are setting up for a strong move higher.

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.businessinsider.com/november-texas-manufacturing-survey-2010-11

 

[Warrenlm]

<hand waving> what happened to the Dec 8 nesting settling mystical wave point that had to be prepared for by building a G percentage? Did we miss it already?

 

[FAB1]

Yes but if you put too much faith in your money, when the moneys gone...

think about it.

 

[Warrenlm]

One never knows if a strategy actually changes due to changing conditions or if competitive motivations drive predictions.

 

[Birchtree]

We've had some volatility with only minimal damage in the C and S fund - the I fund is where the most damage has occured. I still plan to reduce my S fund position and increase my I fund position. This Friday may be a good time to exit because I don't think the 90 day cycle has fully bottomed yet - so the S fund will pay a price. I would like to be 40C/60I by 12/10.

My BEZ (Balder Electric) is being bought out by my ABB. Today it is up $18 to $63.23. Here are my DCA purchases and I certainly wish I had more of it: $30.13, $27.34, $30.18, $28.33, $27.95, $35.48, however, any profit is acceptable.

 

[crws]

<hand waving> what happened to the Dec 8 nesting settling mystical wave point that had to be prepared for by building a G percentage? Did we miss it already?

All bets are off!
The Bookie Window is closed, you are SOL.

 

[crws]

Hey BT, what's your viewpoint about BofA when it breaches $11.
Are you a buyer?
If not, where, or what, instead?

 

[Birchtree]

I have enough BAC already but would like more Key Corp and Regions Financial and will be adding to my existing positions in both as soon as I get some buying power.

 

[crws]

I have enough BAC already but would like more Key Corp and Regions Financial and will be adding to my existing positions in both as soon as I get some buying power.

Key has always been an understated Rock of Gibraltar in these parts.
One of the few operating outside of the circus arena, FMPOV.

 

[Birchtree]

Can you smell it? The bull is in the backyard and dropping the sweet smell of superlative bull manure everywhere. Can you believe that corporate earnings are back to the 2000 year highs. Yes folks, it definitely is a bull market - a cyclical bull inside a secular bull is my thinking. Elliott wise, the recent move to new all time highs for the ratio adjusted NYAD line (cumulative) changes the current Dow count from being that of Intermediate 3 of Primary 5 to Intermediate wave 3 of Primary 3 to the upside. Dow upside price objectives under such conditions can and will be quite high. Only in third waves can such occurrences happen where breadth of market makes higher and higher highs. Breadth should now start to expand exponentially and if you look at how the NYAD line has been moving up over the last 6 months, this is the kind of thing that should continue for awhile and float the Birch 300 fund to new highs.

 

[amoeba]

welcome to the 10,000 post club

Can you smell it? The bull is in the backyard and dropping the sweet smell of superlative bull manure everywhere. Can you believe that corporate earnings are back to the 2000 year highs. Yes folks, it definitely is a bull market - a cyclical bull inside a secular bull is my thinking. Elliott wise, the recent move to new all time highs for the ratio adjusted NYAD line (cumulative) changes the current Dow count from being that of Intermediate 3 of Primary 5 to Intermediate wave 3 of Primary 3 to the upside. Dow upside price objectives under such conditions can and will be quite high. Only in third waves can such occurrences happen where breadth of market makes higher and higher highs. Breadth should now start to expand exponentially and if you look at how the NYAD line has been moving up over the last 6 months, this is the kind of thing that should continue for awhile and float the Birch 300 fund to new highs.

No, what I smell is declining home prices, go look at the data. A home no longer is an positive investment, not even a place to live, it is a money pit. Bottom-fishing investors are likely now to pull out - and drive prices down farther 10% next year. Investment in equities will go down along with it. Europe has its own unresolved problems and these are headlines now but not only that. Sigh-O-nara to your "new highs"; you haven't made up losses from 2 years ago. I'm not boasting, however, since I'm going negative for the first time ever in TSP. That's right, never had a negative return, ever - before 2010.

Darn it - missed your 10,000th post by one. Congrads, anyway.

 

[sdouglas3]

Can you smell it? The bull is in the backyard and dropping the sweet smell of superlative bull manure everywhere. Can you believe that corporate earnings are back to the 2000 year highs. Yes folks, it definitely is a bull market - a cyclical bull inside a secular bull is my thinking. Elliott wise, the recent move to new all time highs for the ratio adjusted NYAD line (cumulative) changes the current Dow count from being that of Intermediate 3 of Primary 5 to Intermediate wave 3 of Primary 3 to the upside. Dow upside price objectives under such conditions can and will be quite high. Only in third waves can such occurrences happen where breadth of market makes higher and higher highs. Breadth should now start to expand exponentially and if you look at how the NYAD line has been moving up over the last 6 months, this is the kind of thing that should continue for awhile and float the Birch 300 fund to new highs.

Birch, I will catch your 10K post then. Congrats to you and your daily thoughts on the markets. I am waiting for the bull to take off.

Steve

 

[Birchtree]

As long as lake property and lake homes depreciate I'm a happy camper - I'm in the market.
I wish I could tell you what my tugboat balance is but I'm sure you'd get weak in the knees. So much fear and so little gain - buck up and put some money to work. Now is the time to get invested. The SPX has averaged a 3.9% gain in seven Decembers of a midterm election year in which the index also rose in September and October. Look for a positive job gain of better than +200,000 come Friday.

 

[Birchtree]

"There are four relatively easy ways to track the progress of the dollar and risk aversion. The first is to monitor the dollar's behavior near its 200-day moving average."

http://www.safehave.com/article/19138/four-ways-to-monitor-the-dollar-and-risk-trade