Birchtree's Account Talk

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Amoeba,

You keep forgetting the critical factor and that is using DCA to accumulate shares - especially when the market goes through periods of weakness. A small percentage gain at my level means a significant increase because of the number of shares I hold in the funds. The time will come when I start shooting from the hip and I will undoubtedly perhaps even double my money - so patience is the golden word for right now. But every dog has his day even the old salty ones.
 
DCA is not a strategy, it's a sickness

Birchtree said:
Amoeba,

You keep forgetting the critical factor and that is using DCA to accumulate shares - especially when the market goes through periods of weakness. A small percentage gain at my level means a significant increase because of the number of shares I hold in the funds. The time will come when I start shooting from the hip and I will undoubtedly perhaps even double my money - so patience is the golden word for right now. But every dog has his day even the old salty ones.
Click to expand...


I didn't forget it; it - being the # of shares - just isn't relevant; JTH has already been over this with you, on my thread. The DCA strategy, that somehow buying greater # of shares - translates into something different from dollars, makes no sense. There's just nothing to it. You have money in the market, not shares. Your shares have gone NO WHERE in 13 years.

DCA is not a strategy, it's a sickness.
 
Well just see how much money you can make with 1,000 shares versus 45,000 shares. It comes and goes a lot faster at the 45,000 share rate. Each share is convertable into dollars depending on the price of the fund. The more shares the more dollars that can be converted. I bought a lot of C fund shares over the last several years in the $8, $9, $10. $11 and $12 range - both going up and going down and then up again. And I've made a lot of money holding this strategy and plan to make a lot more with a different strategy. It will take you longer to accumulate shares at higher prices and that is unfortunate - but I paid my price with time in grade and now you have the same opportunity - just stay employed my friend. It does take a long time to accumulate a financial base in TSP but once you arrive and are willing to take some risk for capital appreciation the sky is the limit until required minimum distribution at 70 - but even then there are many remaining years for growth to occur - I think it's a shame when someone retires and they drop the challenge to make even more money with their well earned balance. Full speed ahead for me in my accounts and that includes my wife and daughter.
 
I do have 8 dividends due today and an annoucement of a take over - so not all is lost. More and more good folks are moving back into the S fund looking for the bottom - it could simply be a trap especially if small caps underperform for the next several months. September is a big dividend month for me thus a silver linning in weakness.
 
Well shucks, the 350 Dow point drop last week only cost me a $160K devaluation in my oceanic account - good thing I have four dividends due today. I may have to concentrate on trying to hold my $1M off the March lows rather than striving for a $2M run into December 17th. At week #75 I'm still up $824K. Money comes and money goes. I'm thinking more about using my dividend income to pay the mortgage on my future lake place after a 25% cash down. That's not to big a scarifice - rather than selling stock and taking capital gains and tax payment.
 
We are now approaching the peak level for summer in Florida. From here on out we are sliding toward fall and cooler weather. If the market stays sideways I'm content with that because the dump truck pulls up the first week in September and starts dumping cash into my oceanic account - allowing me some golden buys off the last 16% correction. So bring on the Obama Omen and I'll gladly take advantage of the scared pricing. Buy'em when no one else wants the money they produce.
 
Birchtree said:
We are now approaching the peak level for summer in Florida. From here on out we are sliding toward fall and cooler weather. If the market stays sideways I'm content with that because the dump truck pulls up the first week in September and starts dumping cash into my oceanic account - allowing me some golden buys off the last 16% correction. So bring on the Obama Omen and I'll gladly take advantage of the scared pricing. Buy'em when no one else wants the money they produce.
Click to expand...


We're going down another 16%? In TSP, how are you going to take advantage of anything unless you have some dry powder? Show me the money. Use an IFT. And I don't mean tiddly-winks 10% moves into and out of I. I mean big moves. Do something. Especially if you think this (today's pause) is a head fake.

Speaking of which, we are gonna be neck-and-neck after today; JTH violated his cardinal rule today (no day-of-trading IFTs) and is up to his neck at 75% so you guys are gonna be close until one of you changes strategy. There's been alot of IFT money pouring into this midpoint (i.e., between 1020 and 1130) - and it could go either way, fast.
 
I'm going to sit tight in my tugboat through September - and then perhaps make a few small moves to the lily pad as a preempt of the four year cycle coming to town. The bull is getting ready to run again and will simply pull me along for the ride.

"For the hard-core optimists like Birchtree, the stock market's weakness over the last three years, including the Dow's horrific, 7728-point plunge from October 2007 high, has been a mere correction in a long-term bull market begun in August 1982."

http://news.gold.com/RickAckerman/1281938700.php
 
Last Wednesday when the Dow went down 265 points my oceanic got clipped $111K - might get a nice piece of that back today. My guess the close was +180 - we are now at +174. So we may close even higher into the 200 + range. We might do 1131 SPX by the end of the week.
 
Birchtree said:
"Bottom line is we're trading between 1050 massive support and 1131 massive resistance. Which ever goes first will be huge. The bears need to put distance below 1080 first and then work on 1050. The bulls need to keep this market from losing 1080 S&P 500 with force so that they don't have to deal with trying to hold 1050."
Click to expand...


I'm with your above quote for sht term; 1,080 held; ^VIX near 200 DMA; I am in for now.
 
I beat your return today (8/18/10) as well, bcz you're too chicken to put anything into S-fund. (bock, bock bock bock)

Asian markets are all up for reasons beyond me. Tomorrow looks to be another good day.

Cross fingers that the job claims comes in somewhere near forecast.
 
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