Birchtree's Account Talk

[Buster]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Frankly My Dears, I don't give a damn what namby pamby excuse you have for not voting for one or the other candidate..I don't even care if vote for Pat Paulson...Just as long as you use the right, that so many have died for giving you..The right to VOTE!!!!

 

[Silverbird]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You got that right, Buster!

 

[mamikin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks for posting the article, Birchtree. Interesting reading.

Good to hear from you Eldritch. I remember the 1977 Carter energy plan - conservation and nothing else. We don't need any more out of nowhere guys messing up the country. I think I'll join up with the Nation of Islam and see if I can vett out the true story behind this latest resignation of Chicago lawyer Mazen Asbahi - there has to be something there.

"The latest fall in commodity prices has given Fed Chairman Bernanke the wiggle room that he has hoped for desperately these past months. The pullback in oil and other commodities will give him the golden opportunity to lower interest rates further to avoid the looming recession from morphing into depression." This could be the real reason to see an extensive market rally.

http://safehaven.com/article-10925.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think today I'll give you a small peek into my subterranean economy since the IRS refuses to give me a stimulus check. They say I make too much money. I've mentioned to you casually that I manage some money for individuals. A few months back I got a call from a State of Florida employee that heard my name mentioned by a friend - I don't do any advertising - it's all by word of mouth and I plan to keep it that way. He wanted me to help him transfer from his defined benefit plan to the available defined contribution plan. We accomplished that smoothly - this plan will contribute 20% of his salary on a monthly basis to his subaccount selections. I mentioned several sources where he could get investment advise including Financial Engines which is all computer generated - no gut involved. I told him how I do my investments and what my thoughts were regarding our current situations and the future - and we said later if he's interested. I got the call yesterday asking if I would consider him as a client - I don't use any written contracts everything is based on mutual trust. And yes, I have been stiffed a few times in the past and yes I have even fired a few clients. It's strictly a serious game because I'm dealing with a clients future - Tom knows that kind of pressure. Anyway he rolled over $589,000 and wants me to run the money. I started that process today and the initial investment takes hold at 1600 hours. I'm dumping into the market 30% as a staring point and will dollar cost average the rest over time whether we go up or down. The last client I helped with a similar balance made $447,000 in a three year perid - I expect the same outcome this time and who knows how high the other client balance will go. Be right and sit tight. I hope this has been fun reading because I'm having a blast helping the underground economy - the IRS can keep their money because I'm keeping mine. Snort.

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks for sharing the info and good luck! On what grounds did the IRS refuse to give you a stimulus check? I thought there would be no exceptions. Guess I am mistaken!

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm dumping into the market 30% as a staring point and will dollar cost average the rest over time whether we go up or down

Birchtree,
I don't mind Market exposure and fully understand DCAing - but I was mainly hoping you'd put a substantial amount into the wide variety of stocks you'd been mentioning over the past few months; as excellent buys became available. The Oceanic Account and the things you're more actively involved in - to me are your greatest strength.

Any chance of including things like that??

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The IRS said my adjusted gross income disqualified me because it was too high. Steady, we are limited to our choices by having to stay within the options that are presented - similar to TSP but with actually a few more choices. I placed the client into four different funds which are very diversified - starting slowly. This is after all a retirement account and I have a fiduciary responsibility.

"Time exponentially expands the compounding effect. With less time to invest, even the most skilled traders will find themselves at an enormous disadvantage to compounding interest. The best strategy for most investors is a patient and disciplined approach to investing. I believe time in the market, with proper asset allocation, is preferable to timing the market, which is a fool's game."

http://safehaven.com/article-10929.htm

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks Birch,
The TSP is the only one I watch on a regular basis and the rest of my investments are always running in the background. I'm so use to thinking of C/S/I that I often forget there are other options (and in fact better opportunities).

If you were the typical Market Timer - I never would have considered you to begin with. You've more than proven yourself on multiple levels...sorry...this dragging economy is just getting old and I'm not quite up to par...but I appreciate your response.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I can't believe I haven't checked to see what dividends will be reinvested this month - I guess I'm getting complacent. I might as well just sit back and let the chips fall until this foolish correction is finished.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

An hour into the trade today and we're already bustin chops - taking yesterday back with perhaps much more to go.Can you smell the rocket fuel.

 

[Buster]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

An hour into the trade today and we're already bustin chops - taking yesterday back with perhaps much more to go.Can you smell the rocket fuel.

Got Major Tom all saddled up and ready to go...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Every bull market in history, and a good many intermediate advances, has been launched with a buying stampede that included one or more 9 to 1 up days. At this point, it's probably better to look at the current trading climate as a technical correction in a longer term bull move. I've been repeating myself since last October. However, lower downside objectives have not been given by the MCOs to confirm further weakness. The NYSE breadth MCO has not taken out the flag lows of last year yet even though we have had support broken with the MCSUMs. We are simply building a strong base for the next leg up.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

An hour into the trade today and we're already bustin chops - taking yesterday back with perhaps much more to go.Can you smell the rocket fuel.

I can smell it! But I still hate the TSP Board!

We're currently bouncing around between 20 SMA and upper Bollinger band/50SMA. We've hit highs in the upper 1280s and lower 1290s 3 times...and going for a fourth. If we DO NOT CLOSE ABOVE 1290 in the next couple days (assuming there is an attempt at follow through to today), I believe we are headed down below the 20 SMA into the 1235-1245 range. That's my best guess anyhow. Wildcard = dollar and crude...and we all know which way that goes. I'd like to see us close near highs today, then, an attempt at follow through on Monday, which happens to lack any economic data, thank goodness! Also, I don't see any big market moving earnings on Monday before the close, so, maybe we'll get our close near 1300 (at which point I will lighten up on stocks a tad...).

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've been repeating myself since last October. We are simply building a strong base for the next leg up.

Birch,
Most of us can't help it. We are so use to unlimited trades and watching the Markets with a Zoom Lens that when things go down we're ready to bail. When minutes seem like hours...hours like days... and days are like years....the doom and gloom 'bear market' thinking is hard to shake.

This is what makes you the Master. And just like Chess - Master Level Players are few and far between.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've never had a probklem with the TSP because of my longer term objectives - limited IFTs don't bother me. I am wondering why the dollar is so strong lately - are we seeing quiet concerted central bank intervention that hasn't been reported by the press yet? The stronger dollar is pushing down oil pricing. I do know that the bus travels faster with no body on board. Not everyone is going bankrupt, nor is everyone late on their mortgages - we only hear about the small percentage of these same folks, and then it's blown up to make it feel like the sky is falling. I'm so greatfull for Larry Kudlow and his show for keeping me straight. This correction has been confined to a less than 50% retracement of the entire uptrend and, so far, has to be regarded as a normal correction of the previous trend. Bull markets begin in the middle of all the bad news. And the VIX is signaling a bit of bullishness.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thankyou Steady. I'm just using common sense and a little contrarian perspective. I keep thinking about the 18 billion shares that are short and will eventually need to be covered. I'm also thinking about power generation and power is at the cusp of its next boom cycle. When power markets tighten, prices do not notch up, they skyrocket. Could today really open up and provide a 400 point banger to break out of the recent triangle with sumptuous abandon. Snort.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thankyou Steady. I'm just using common sense and a little contrarian perspective. I keep thinking about the 18 billion shares that are short and will eventually need to be covered. I'm also thinking about power generation and power is at the cusp of its next boom cycle. When power markets tighten, prices do not notch up, they skyrocket. Could today really open up and provide a 400 point banger to break out of the recent triangle with sumptuous abandon. Snort.

Birch, you motivate the hell out of me. I just wanted you to know that.
I admire your perspective on the Market and read your posts every chance
I get. I don't believe I've taken the time to thank you for that. I may not
be the type of investor that you are, but I'm a better one because of you.
SNORT !

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

On the train for the ride today - never miss a day in the markets. Today I sold a small position in AZZ to generate cash to buy: AIG, S, FRE, DHI. I'm slightly excited about the potential gains I can perpetuate - the truck is loaded. Still waiting on SPX of 1437 to solidify the bottom and a further move to 1600 to redeem myself. Let'er rip and squeeze them complacent puppies all the way to Dow 17,900.

 

[Buster]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, you motivate the hell out of me. I just wanted you to know that.

And here I thought it was the Exlax...

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Aside from the credit crunch the reason the small caps may underperform could be related to the fact that they were the outperformers for the last seven years - it could simply be their time to rest a little. The large caps were the underperformers during this particular time interval and now I'm expecting them to shine in their own light. The large caps have access to credit and have exports in their favor and will be buyers of other companies. I've been preaching the C fund for a couple of years now to the point of being tendentious and if only a few believe in this scenario the better for Ferdinand and myself. Snort.

I take mental notes when I read the various threads and when the Markets move as they moved today - this stands out.

I still expect the S Fund to be the leader once the "rocket takes off" but setting the stage - it looks like you're right on target.