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BigJohn's Account Talk
- Thread starter BigJohn
- Start date
BigJohn
Member
Back in the days of unlimited moves in the TSP, I would have jumped back in this morning. But alas, those days are long gone. I am going to be a bit more active this year, playing my "jump in on big down mornings and jump out on big up mornings" game. I know, it is the catch a falling knife dilemma, but I enjoy it.
Best of luck to everyone...let's make some money!
Best of luck to everyone...let's make some money!
BigJohn
Member
I don't think this dead cat is going to bounce...
Take all of the following with several grains of salt. I don't do technical analysis and didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Here goes:
From Tom's post a few days ago: "There will be nearly 700 companies reporting earnings on Wednesday and Thursday alone. The kicker is that Facebook, Twitter, Google, Amazon, and Apple all report after the bell on Thursday the 29th. I don't think that's ever happened before where they all reported on the same day. Can you imagine the impact that crew could have on the market on Friday if all of them reported good, or bad reports?
It's no secret that these five company leaders are not fans of President Trump, so I am a little paranoid about this group's ability to impact the market two trading days before election day.
They could even report very good numbers for the last quarter, but all they'd have to say in their conference calls to send their stock prices reeling is that they are not confident in their earnings projections going forward with the uncertainty surrounding the recent spike in COVID cases. If these stocks fall, the market will tumble, and perhaps that could impact voters?"
Add to that: Microsoft beat earnings and still dropped...
Yesterday: looked like buyers stepped in later in the day, but not enough to stop a last minute swoon.
Last night/Today: Futures were up over 200 points, morning started with the Dow up 150, currently 85ish.
Tonight: FAANG reports earning after bell. If numbers or forecasts aren't good, added with worsening COVID numbers...and if FAANG wants DT out of office, kind of sets up to be a rough day tomorrow.
Nothing educated about this guess.
Take all of the following with several grains of salt. I don't do technical analysis and didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Here goes:
From Tom's post a few days ago: "There will be nearly 700 companies reporting earnings on Wednesday and Thursday alone. The kicker is that Facebook, Twitter, Google, Amazon, and Apple all report after the bell on Thursday the 29th. I don't think that's ever happened before where they all reported on the same day. Can you imagine the impact that crew could have on the market on Friday if all of them reported good, or bad reports?
It's no secret that these five company leaders are not fans of President Trump, so I am a little paranoid about this group's ability to impact the market two trading days before election day.
They could even report very good numbers for the last quarter, but all they'd have to say in their conference calls to send their stock prices reeling is that they are not confident in their earnings projections going forward with the uncertainty surrounding the recent spike in COVID cases. If these stocks fall, the market will tumble, and perhaps that could impact voters?"
Add to that: Microsoft beat earnings and still dropped...
Yesterday: looked like buyers stepped in later in the day, but not enough to stop a last minute swoon.
Last night/Today: Futures were up over 200 points, morning started with the Dow up 150, currently 85ish.
Tonight: FAANG reports earning after bell. If numbers or forecasts aren't good, added with worsening COVID numbers...and if FAANG wants DT out of office, kind of sets up to be a rough day tomorrow.
Nothing educated about this guess.
Buffalo_Nickle
Member
Why Not?
Bullitt
Well-known member
Well, if it makes you feel better, TWTR is getting the smack down right now after earnings didn't satisfy it's inflated valuations. FB getting hit a bit too, but not nearly as bad.
Bottom line is "the market" is being moved by a concentrated group of SaaS stocks with very high valuations. Unless they blow out expectations, they will stop going up. If they miss estimates, then Twitter happens. Holders of these stocks all have automated stops at the same support lines, and are all looking at the same tea leaves in the charts. These levels will all be blown in unison.
The FANG or SaaS trade is a trade that things will never normalize. They will. Everyone knows that, but while the music is playing everyone wants to dance until the end.
Bottom line is "the market" is being moved by a concentrated group of SaaS stocks with very high valuations. Unless they blow out expectations, they will stop going up. If they miss estimates, then Twitter happens. Holders of these stocks all have automated stops at the same support lines, and are all looking at the same tea leaves in the charts. These levels will all be blown in unison.
The FANG or SaaS trade is a trade that things will never normalize. They will. Everyone knows that, but while the music is playing everyone wants to dance until the end.
BigJohn
Member
And here I go again...trying to catch that falling knife. My plan was to enter the S fund today and ride out the next few months and see what happens. Decided to stay out and see what Monday morning looks like. I talked with a friend of mine about the political side of things and their impact on a stimulus package. Went a little something like this:
Biden wins and Dems take over the Senate: massive stimulus package, markets skyrocket
Biden wins and GOP hold onto the Senate: small stimulus, markets go lower
Trump wins and Dems take over Senate: another large stimulus, markets skyrocket
Trump wins and GOP maintain Senate: medium size stimulus, moderate gains
I think the uncertainty of how this will play out is a factor in the recent dip and that will continue through Tuesday. I may be kicking myself on Monday, but it won't be the first time or likely the last!
Biden wins and Dems take over the Senate: massive stimulus package, markets skyrocket
Biden wins and GOP hold onto the Senate: small stimulus, markets go lower
Trump wins and Dems take over Senate: another large stimulus, markets skyrocket
Trump wins and GOP maintain Senate: medium size stimulus, moderate gains
I think the uncertainty of how this will play out is a factor in the recent dip and that will continue through Tuesday. I may be kicking myself on Monday, but it won't be the first time or likely the last!
BigJohn
Member
I am not buying this pop in the markets. The next 72 hours are going to be as chaotic (political, social, economic, health) as our country has seen in decades. If the markets hate uncertainty, this looks to be the perfect storm.
Political side: other than a landslide in either direction, a mess. No matter what Tuesday offers, lawsuits and court challenges will follow. Senate an even bigger wildcard.
Social side: no matter what the results, I think civil unrest of some kind from either/both sides is a virtual lock.
Economic side: the last couple of weeks speak for themselves, add to that the hopes of a stimulus seem to be fading.
Health side: COVID, lock downs in Europe, etc...
Chicken Little? Maybe... For all of us, not just in the context of our TSP, I hope all of this turns out to be not as bad as it seems.
Stay safe and be Kind...
Political side: other than a landslide in either direction, a mess. No matter what Tuesday offers, lawsuits and court challenges will follow. Senate an even bigger wildcard.
Social side: no matter what the results, I think civil unrest of some kind from either/both sides is a virtual lock.
Economic side: the last couple of weeks speak for themselves, add to that the hopes of a stimulus seem to be fading.
Health side: COVID, lock downs in Europe, etc...
Chicken Little? Maybe... For all of us, not just in the context of our TSP, I hope all of this turns out to be not as bad as it seems.
Stay safe and be Kind...
